Friends, behold my latest article! It's about wild -- or is it so "wild", after all? -- speculation that Donald Trump could run for the House in 2022 and try to replace Nancy Pelosi as Speaker. What are the odds, huh? Read on and find out...
Trump v. Pelosi: A Marquee Matchup for the Speakership?
Last week, Donald Trump was asked on Wayne Allyn Root's radio show about the notion that he should run for the House of Representatives in 2022, with the goal of helping Republicans take the House majority and replacing Nancy Pelosi as Speaker. He responded enthusiastically: “very interesting”, he said. Compared to suggestions that he run for the Senate, Trump acknowledged that “...your idea may be better.”
None of that is a firm declaration of intent, mind you, but it's more than enough to get our speculative juices flowing.
For Trump, a run for the House would have several benefits.
One, he could almost certainly find a district in which he could win handily. Republicans, and especially rural Republicans, adore him. The vast majority of Republican primary voters want Trump to remain the dominant figure in the party. Moreover, Trump likes to win. Running for the House in 2022 would be the easiest, quickest way for him to get back into national politics and to resume his winning streak.
Two, Trump undoubtedly wants the midterm elections to be nationalized and to vindicate him personally. If he was a candidate for the House in 2022, presumably every House race would become, by default, a referendum on Trump. If Republicans took the House majority, therefore, as currently many forecasters predict, then Trump could claim that the nation had chosen Trumpism over Bidenism/socialism. He would thus be in an ideal position to run again for the presidency in 2024.
Third, control of the House would give Republicans a platform from which to deliver a ceaseless series of attacks on Biden administration policies. Since it's increasingly obvious that the media won't be asking uncomfortable questions of our new progressive overlords, it behooves Republicans to wrest back control of at least one House of Congress, so that they will have the PR wherewithal and subpoena power to expose the contours of Democratic misrule.
Lastly, a Trump run for the House, and implicitly for the Speakership, in 2022 would provide Trump with one critical advantage: it would pit him against one of the few American politicians, Nancy Pelosi, who is as unpopular as he is.
According to RealClearPolitics, Trump and Pelosi are both “underwater”, and by almost exactly the same amount, in terms of favorability: -13 or -14 points. This is far more attractive political ground than Trump was fighting on in 2020, for instance, when he faced an adversary who was broadly popular and (somewhat incredibly) still is. Right now, Sleepy Joe is +12 in favorability.
He's +80 in irritability, but that's another story.
Why are Nancy Pelosi's numbers so poor? It's not hard to figure. She's an imperious, Bolshevist crone. She's exactly the kind of enemy one would pick, in fact, if one could pick one's enemies – and in 2022 Donald Trump does have that luxury.
If in many ways, therefore, it looks like a run for the House (Speakership) in 2022 is a slam dunk for Trump, it's worth reflecting on a few of the flaws in this audacious plan.
For one thing, nationalizing, and Trumpifying, the 2022 midterms risks bolstering Democratic/progressive turnout...big-time!!! Trump has shown an incredible ability to turn out legions of conservatives and Republicans, some of them first-time or infrequent voters, but he has shown an even greater talent for motivating Democrats and independents of almost every stripe to show up at the polls (or, more likely, cast a mail-in ballot) in order to vote against Trumpism and its partisan incarnation: the Republican Party.
I mean, let's face it: 81 million Americans didn't vote for “Sleepy Joe” in 2020. They voted, by and large, to reject and repudiate Donald J. Trump. Quite a few of them would be game for a repeat performance.
The danger would be, therefore, that a Trump run for the House would nationalize and energize the contest just enough to get tens of millions of Trump-haters to the polls, but not enough to get Trumpers to vote en masse, not for Trump himself, but for milquetoast moderate Republican House candidates who might or might not be enthusiatic Trump backers.
In other words, a Trump run for the House (Speakership) might well succeed in putting Trump in the House, but it might backfire on a grander scale and lead to massive Democratic victories in 2022, including an expanded House majority, an expanded Senate majority, and from there the elimination of the filibuster, the packing of the Supreme Court, the liquidation of the bourgeoisie, etc etc.
These concerns must be taken seriously. After all, to the extent that the GOP is identified, going forward, with Trump and Trumpism, Republicans must acknowledge that the association carries with it considerable risks and potential downsides.
Who would ultimately win a Trump v. Pelosi rumble for the Speakership? Since public attitudes to both figures are largely “baked in”, presumably it would come down to the state of the economy, the country, and public opinion in the Fall of 2022 – an imponderable, to say the least, in June 2021.
As for the real possibility of electoral Armageddon for Republicans, that might or might not faze Trump, but there is one last consideration that could prove decisive for him: a run for the House, after one has served as President of the United States, is almost unheard of (John Quincy Adams being the sole exception to the rule). It would involve a degree of lèse–majesté . Would Trump, the alpha male par excellence, submit to such a debasement? Would he do so, especially at the ripe old age of 76, when there are other Republicans, like Ron DeSantis, who would happily fight tooth and nail in the political trenches on Trumpism's behalf, while the elder statesman himself pontificates on the sidelines? That remains to be seen.
All in all, the idea that Trump should run for the House (Speakership) in 2022 is not as fanciful as it sounds. Donald Trump, and Republicans in general, would be foolish to dismiss it out of hand.
A House run would be an “outside the box” play, to be sure, but, if Donald Trump has proved anything in the last six years, it's this: the old rules no longer apply.
Dr. Nicholas L. Waddy is an Associate Professor of History at SUNY Alfred and blogs at: www.waddyisright.com. He appears on the Newsmaker Show on WLEA 1480.
And here it is at American Greatness:
https://amgreatness.com/2021/06/06/trump-vs-pelosi-a-marquee-matchup-for-the-speakership/
In other news, Joe Manchin has confirmed that he won't vote for the Dems' atrocious election-takeover bill. This means the midterms in 2022, and the presidential election in 2024, might just be decided by...the voters? Hey, stranger things have happened.
https://news.yahoo.com/manchin-says-wont-vote-democrats-122241843.html
And here's the article that got me speculating on a Trump run for the House in 2022:
https://www.newsmax.com/newsfront/donaldtrump-speakerofthehouse-2022-2024/2021/06/04/id/1023989/
Lastly, more good news out of Texas: the GOP won the mayoral race in Ft. Worth, America's 12th largest city! Hooray! GOP wins in America's big cities are rare enough. This is one to celebrate!
Dr. Waddy from Jack : Well expressed and well argued. Could Trump advance to the Presidency from the Speakership? I think I'd rather see him gather his political capital for a campaign for the big one in2024.But who can gainsay him, after what he did in 2016?
ReplyDeleteI feel much the same, Jack. It's a bold plan (to run for the House), but at 76, and given Trump's personality, it seems like a stretch.
ReplyDeleteI suspect he'll gird himself for 2024, and, if circumstances grow less favorable, he'll bet on a horse like DeSantis or Don, Jr. that he feels will carry on his work.
I have a feeling DeSantis is going to "go for the gold" in 2024 with a Trump endorsement, although there will be others running on the GOP ticket, with or without a Trump blessing. If I had to bet, my money would be on DeSantis.
ReplyDeleteMaybe, Ray. Maybe. 2024 is a long way off. As you can see here, the betting markets ALMOST agree with you...
ReplyDeletehttps://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7053/Who-will-win-the-2024-Republican-presidential-nomination