Friends, no doubt you've heard a lot about how great things are going for Kamala Harris and Tim Walz. Why, they've practically got this thing in the bag! Well... My latest article analyzes the state of the race, and you might be surprised:
The Home Stretch
With
the first opportunity to vote early just days away, the presidential
election is about to move from mere theory to practical applications.
That is to say, the main event, which Americans have so long
anticipated, is almost here, and we will know all too soon whether
Trump or Harris will be the 47th
President of the United States.
There is no
question that Kamala Harris and Tim Walz have made the race far more
competitive than, well, Joe Biden and Kamala Harris did. Who would
have thought that a simple game of musical chairs could achieve so
much?
The
Democrats and their media allies deserve ample credit for contriving
to reintroduce Kamala, a singularly unpopular Vice-President, to the
American people. She has been effectively shielded from controversy
and criticism within a warm and fuzzy cocoon of positive press. She
has been spared the agony of defining her policy positions, and
instead has been gifted a vacuous idolization that focuses on her
fundraising prowess, strong polls, and transcendent “joy”. On
Thursday, Queen Kamala took time out from her royal duties to have a
confab with one of her adoring pet reporters—doing no serious or
long lasting injury to her campaign. Possibly this sit-down interview
suggests a slight change of direction on her part, and a willingness
to dabble in substance. In any case, the upshot of the carefully
scripted, short on specifics Harris-Walz charm offensive of the last
month or so is that the Democrats have pulled off a small miracle. In
an age when public perceptions of leading politicians seem “baked
in” and immovable, they have measurably improved the voters'
perceptions of Kamala Harris, and given
her an edge
on Donald Trump in terms of “favorability” that could be
decisive, if it holds.
Trump's
problem is simple: the majority of Americans, and the majority of
voters, don't
like him.
He is, therefore, highly unlikely to get 50% of the vote—considering
that, even against Joe Biden, a much weaker candidate than Harris, he
almost never did in any poll. Moreover, because Harris has improved
her image and become an acceptable potential president to so many,
she has consolidated almost all of the anti-Trump vote into a
Harris-Walz vote. In other words, almost everyone who hates Trump is
now prepared to vote for Harris, which is bad news indeed for any and
all Trumpers. Joe Biden, by contrast, had dispirited the Democrats
such that many of them were contemplating staying home, or voting for
Kennedy, Stein, or West. The third party vote, according to polls,
has shrunk
immensely
in the last month and a half: from 12.2% of the total to just 7% now,
based on the RealClearPolitics averages. What Trump needs to do is
(re)seed the electorate with doubts about Harris—to push just a few
more of those newly-minted Harris supporters, temporarily infected
with joy, back into despondency, and out of the electorate
altogether, or into the arms of Kennedy, Stein, or West. It is by no
means an impossible feat to accomplish, given the extraordinary
constellation of factors that have flowed together to grant Harris
this remarkable honeymoon period.
So what
specifically can Trump do to upset the Harris-Walz apple cart? It
won't be easy, because at least half the electorate, and possibly a
bit more, still gets most of its information and analysis from a
mainstream media that loathes Trump with the white-hot intensity of a
thousand suns. Whatever attack lines Trump tries out—and Harris is
certainly vulnerable on multiple fronts—will be ignored, or
derided, by the press. Instead, Trump's best hope might be that
Harris will simply fall victim to that iron law of political physics:
what goes up must come down. Almost inevitably, as Harris stretches
her legs on the campaign trail, does more interviews, sallies forth
on the debate stage, and has to deal with breaking news and concrete
policy dilemmas, her star will begin to fade. Trump and Trumpers have
every reason to hope that, when it does, DJT can spring ahead in the
battleground states, where already, even in the midst of springtime
for Kamala, he appears to be tied. In short, political gravity alone
may save Trump, regardless of what he says or does.
But,
to increase the likelihood that Harris will start to bleed away
support to the likes of “none of the above”, Kennedy, Stein, and
West, we can suggest one ruse that might accelerate the process. Jill
Stein, the Green Party candidate, and Cornel West, the Justice for
All candidate, have both been seeking ballot access and media
coverage, neither of which the political establishment and the
mainstream media, both beholden to the Democratic Party, are inclined
to grant. They have been fighting the good fight with very meager
resources: both
campaigns
have only raised a
little over $1 million.
Smart Republicans understand that the success of the Harris-Walz
campaign will almost certainly be in inverse proportion to the
success of Stein and West, since they are competing, in many cases,
for the same voters. Thus, smart Republicans have wished Stein and
West well, which is fine, but they haven't put their money where
their mouth is. It may be time to do so, since, quite frankly, a
strategic investment in leftist lunacy could pay dividends that yet
another check written out to Trump would not.
Political
artifice such as this might make a real difference, but, if we're to
be honest, this campaign, and the fate of our nation, is mostly in
the hands of Kamala Harris, and secondarily in the hands of the
handlers who handle Kamala Harris and tell her what to do. If she
performs flawlessly
and holds the anti-Trump coalition together all the way to November,
she's very likely to be our next president. If, however, she stumbles
in even the slightest way—and she's a natural bumbler, make no
mistake, which is precisely why her campaign has her under lock and
key—then Trump is likely to beat her. It really is that simple.
No pressure,
Kamala! You got this, girl. Maybe. Maybe not.
Dr.
Nicholas L. Waddy is an Associate Professor of History at SUNY Alfred
and blogs at: www.waddyisright.com.
He appears on the Newsmaker Show on WLEA 1480/106.9.
And here it is at World Net Daily:
https://www.wnd.com/2024/09/its-bumbling-kamalas-race-to-lose/
***
In other news, the "far right" has scored some major wins in German state elections, and naturally the establishment and the media are aghast. The mainstream parties are predictably ganging up on the AfD. What else is new? Seems like "our betters" only respect democratic outcomes when they suit them, huh?
https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cn02w01xr2jo
Oregon is dialing back its decriminalization of drug possession and use. I don't know how you feel, but I have grave doubts about whether throwing drug users in the clink is the best way to handle this admittedly serious societal problem.
https://abc7.com/post/oregon-law-rolling-back-drug-decriminalization-set-take-effect-make-possession-crime/15252804/
Lastly, Hvaldimir, the suspected Russian spy whale, has died, and I for one suspect foul play!!! Could the Ukrainians be involved? Rumors are flying that an elite CIA assassin -- code name JONAH -- may be behind this outrage, or possibly inside it. Stay tuned.
https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cje2p3z8nlyo
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