Friends, behold my latest article! It's about wild -- or is it so "wild", after all? -- speculation that Donald Trump could run for the House in 2022 and try to replace Nancy Pelosi as Speaker. What are the odds, huh? Read on and find out...
Trump v. Pelosi: A Marquee Matchup
for the Speakership?
Last week, Donald
Trump was asked on Wayne Allyn Root's radio show about the notion
that he should run for the House of Representatives in 2022, with the
goal of helping Republicans take the House majority and replacing
Nancy Pelosi as Speaker. He responded enthusiastically: “very
interesting”, he said. Compared to suggestions that he run for the
Senate, Trump acknowledged that “...your idea may be better.”
None of that is a
firm declaration of intent, mind you, but it's more than enough to
get our speculative juices flowing.
For Trump, a run
for the House would have several benefits.
One, he could
almost certainly find a district in which he could win handily.
Republicans, and especially rural Republicans, adore him. The vast
majority of Republican primary voters want Trump to remain
the dominant figure in the party. Moreover, Trump likes to win.
Running for the House in 2022 would be the easiest, quickest way for
him to get back into national politics and to resume his winning
streak.
Two, Trump
undoubtedly wants the midterm elections to be nationalized and to
vindicate him personally. If he was a candidate for the House in
2022, presumably every House
race would become, by default, a referendum on Trump. If Republicans
took the House majority, therefore, as currently many forecasters
predict, then Trump could claim that the nation had chosen Trumpism
over Bidenism/socialism. He would thus be in an ideal position to run
again for the presidency in 2024.
Third,
control of the House would give Republicans a platform from which to
deliver a ceaseless series of attacks on Biden administration
policies. Since it's increasingly obvious that the media won't be
asking uncomfortable questions of our new progressive overlords, it
behooves Republicans to wrest back control of at least one House of
Congress, so that they will have the PR wherewithal and subpoena
power to expose the contours of Democratic misrule.
Lastly,
a Trump run for the House, and implicitly for the Speakership, in
2022 would provide Trump with one critical advantage: it would pit
him against one of the few American politicians, Nancy Pelosi, who is
as unpopular as he is.
According
to RealClearPolitics,
Trump and Pelosi are both “underwater”, and by
almost exactly the same amount, in terms of favorability: -13 or
-14 points. This is far more attractive political ground than Trump
was fighting on in 2020, for instance, when he faced an adversary who
was broadly popular and (somewhat incredibly) still is. Right now,
Sleepy Joe is +12 in favorability.
He's
+80 in irritability, but that's another story.
Why
are Nancy Pelosi's numbers so poor? It's not hard to figure. She's an
imperious, Bolshevist crone. She's exactly the kind of enemy one
would pick, in fact, if one could pick one's enemies – and in 2022
Donald Trump does have that luxury.
If
in many ways, therefore, it looks like a run for the House
(Speakership) in 2022 is a slam dunk for Trump, it's worth reflecting
on a few of the flaws in this audacious plan.
For
one thing, nationalizing, and Trumpifying, the 2022 midterms risks
bolstering Democratic/progressive turnout...big-time!!!
Trump has shown an incredible ability to turn out legions of
conservatives and Republicans, some of them first-time or infrequent
voters, but he has shown an even greater talent for motivating
Democrats and independents of almost every stripe to show up at the
polls (or, more likely, cast a mail-in ballot) in order to vote
against Trumpism and
its partisan incarnation: the Republican Party.
I
mean, let's face it: 81 million Americans didn't vote for
“Sleepy Joe” in 2020. They voted, by and large, to reject and
repudiate Donald J. Trump. Quite a few of them would be game for a
repeat performance.
The
danger would be, therefore, that a Trump run for the House would
nationalize and energize the contest just enough to get tens of
millions of Trump-haters to the polls, but not enough to get Trumpers
to vote en masse, not
for Trump himself, but for milquetoast moderate Republican House
candidates who might or might not be enthusiatic Trump backers.
In
other words, a Trump run for the House (Speakership) might well
succeed in putting Trump in the House, but it might backfire on a
grander scale and lead to massive Democratic victories in 2022,
including an expanded House majority, an expanded Senate majority,
and from there the elimination of the filibuster, the packing of the
Supreme Court, the liquidation of the bourgeoisie,
etc etc.
These
concerns must be taken seriously. After all, to the extent that the
GOP is identified, going forward, with Trump and Trumpism,
Republicans must acknowledge that the association carries with it
considerable risks and potential downsides.
Who
would ultimately win a Trump v. Pelosi rumble for the Speakership?
Since public attitudes to both figures are largely “baked in”,
presumably it would come down to the state of the economy, the
country, and public opinion in the Fall of 2022 – an imponderable,
to say the least, in June 2021.
As
for the real possibility of electoral Armageddon for Republicans,
that might or might not faze Trump, but there is one last
consideration that could prove decisive for him: a run for the House,
after one has served as President of the United States, is almost
unheard of (John Quincy Adams being the sole exception to the rule).
It would involve a degree of lèse–majesté
.
Would Trump, the alpha male par
excellence,
submit to such a debasement? Would he do so, especially at the ripe
old age of 76, when there are other Republicans, like Ron DeSantis,
who would happily fight tooth and nail in the political trenches on
Trumpism's behalf, while the elder statesman himself pontificates on
the sidelines? That remains to be seen.
All
in all, the idea that Trump should run for the House (Speakership) in
2022 is not as fanciful as it sounds. Donald Trump, and Republicans
in general, would be foolish to dismiss it out of hand.
A
House run would be an “outside the box” play, to be sure, but, if
Donald Trump has proved anything in the last six years, it's this:
the old rules no longer apply.
Dr. Nicholas L.
Waddy is an Associate Professor of History at SUNY Alfred and blogs
at: www.waddyisright.com.
He appears on the Newsmaker Show on WLEA 1480.
And here it is at American Greatness:
https://amgreatness.com/2021/06/06/trump-vs-pelosi-a-marquee-matchup-for-the-speakership/
In other news, Joe Manchin has confirmed that he won't vote for the Dems' atrocious election-takeover bill. This means the midterms in 2022, and the presidential election in 2024, might just be decided by...the voters? Hey, stranger things have happened.
https://news.yahoo.com/manchin-says-wont-vote-democrats-122241843.html
And here's the article that got me speculating on a Trump run for the House in 2022:
https://www.newsmax.com/newsfront/donaldtrump-speakerofthehouse-2022-2024/2021/06/04/id/1023989/
Lastly, more good news out of Texas: the GOP won the mayoral race in Ft. Worth, America's 12th largest city! Hooray! GOP wins in America's big cities are rare enough. This is one to celebrate!
https://www.fox4news.com/news/deborah-peoples-mattie-parker-face-off-in-runoff-election-for-fort-worth-mayor