Friday, June 14, 2024

Not Your Average Joe


Friends, if you're like most people who read this blog, you view Joseph R. Biden as something of a walking joke -- a senile has-been who couldn't govern his way out of a wet paper bag.  Well, that may be so, but my latest article argues that, if you want Trump to prevail in November, you might want to root for ole Sleepy Joe in the first presidential debate on June 27th.  Why on Earth would I do that, you ask?  Read on and find out...



Run, Sleepy Joe, Run!

With the first and presumptively most important presidential debate coming up in less than two weeks, many Republicans and conservatives are exultant. Their candidate, Donald Trump, has enjoyed a consistent if small lead in the polls, especially in those that most accurately reflect the true nature of the race – by allowing voters to choose between Trump, Biden, Kennedy, West, and Stein. Trump's advantage hasn't been dented by a wide-ranging campaign of lawfare, up to and including his recent felony convictions in New York City. Many Trumpers expect the first debate to consolidate Trump's dominance – mainly because they take it for granted that Biden's senility will be laid bare. From that point on, they assume, Trump will be on a secure glidepath to a second term.

Much of this logic is sound, but the last part – the idea that a poor debate performance by Biden will cement Trump's status as the frontrunner – is dangerously naive. Trump is currently ahead, and has been ahead more or less since the campaign began, but this advantage, if one digs deeply into polling data, does not necessarily reflect any particular strength on Trump's part. His favorable ratings, and the percentage of Americans who say they will vote for him, are not significantly changed from 2020, when he lost by more than four points. At this same point in the race in 2020, in the RealClearPolitics average of head-to-head polls, Trump was receiving around 42% of the vote. Today, he is receiving roughly 45%. That's a significant difference, but hardly an earth-shattering one. Joe Biden, by contrast, was receiving 50% of the vote in 2020, versus less than 45% now. In a five-way race, Biden currently receives under 40% – an extraordinarily weak performance for a sitting president. The lesson here is that Trump's dominance at this stage of the race is mostly a factor of Biden's unpopularity, and the divided field of candidates, rather than Trump's own appeal.

But why, then, would a flawed debate performance by Joe Biden not serve to improve Trump's prospects of victory still further? That's simple: because Trump's chances of victory rely on the assumption that his main opponent is, and will be, Joe Biden. While it would be difficult, and maybe even excruciating, for Democrats to pull the plug on Biden's reelection bid and choose another candidate, it is far from impossible, especially before the nomination has been officially bestowed on Biden at the Democratic National Convention in Chicago in August. A different Democratic candidate, needless to say, would upend the presidential race entirely, and this would threaten Trump's primacy by injecting new blood into the contest. No one can say whether the Democrats could find themselves a dream candidate, but at the very least they could find one who wasn't burdened by all of Joe Biden's baggage, and who wasn't obliged to defend the status quo, which so many Americans find repugnant.

If, therefore, Trump's likelihood of winning in 2024 depends on Democrats sticking to their guns and following Joe Biden like lemmings over the abyss, then the best way to ensure that they do so is to hope that Biden puts in a performance in the first debate that will be judged...satisfactory. That debate is, and will be seen as, the greatest and most important test of Biden's political viability before the Democratic National Convention. If he passes it, he will most definitely be the Democrats' nominee. If he trips up modestly, Democrats will probably still be stuck with him. If, however, he crashes and burns, as so many Republicans and conservatives seem to expect he will, and hope he will, then it would be shocking if Democratic Party elders, along with members of the Biden family, did not take Sleepy Joe aside and explain to him that the time to retire gracefully is now. And, in that case, the modest lead that Trump has built – over one of the least popular presidents in modern history – could evaporate overnight.

Elementary political logic dictates that the candidate who is ahead in any race should do everything in his power to ensure that the dynamics that helped to craft his advantage should be left as undisturbed as possible, and he should hope that nothing dramatic or even interesting happens in the course of the campaign to change voters' minds. A mediocre debate performance by both candidates on June 27th, or a debate that surprises and excites no one, would be entirely to Trump's advantage. Thus, while it may appear highly ironic, those Americans who sincerely wish for a second Trump term would be well-advised to hope and pray for a reasonably solid debate performance by none other than Joe Biden. Such a result would keep Biden's struggling campaign on life support – but decidedly alive – and that is exactly where Republicans, conservatives, and Trumpers should want it.

Dr. Nicholas L. Waddy is an Associate Professor of History at SUNY Alfred and blogs at: He appears on the Newsmaker Show on WLEA 1480/106.9.


And here it is at Townhall:

Wednesday, June 12, 2024

Walls Work!


Friends, this week's Newsmaker Show reflects on President Reagan's bold speech in Berlin in June 1987, when he challenged the Soviet leader to "tear down" the Berlin Wall.  Such a suggestion seemed far-fetched at the time, but just two years later -- presto!  Down the Wall came!  Maybe Reagan was clairvoyant.  Maybe he was a great statesman.  Maybe he was just plain lucky.  Be all that as it may, he said what he said, and the Russkies did what they did, and the rest is history.  Speaking of which, Brian and I also reflect on the recent anniversary of the D-Day landings, and the fact that so few WWII veterans are left to partake in these remembrances.  We also look back on the presidency of George Herbert Walker Bush.


When we turn to current events, Brian and I ponder the political impact (or lack thereof) of the Trump and Hunter Biden guilty verdicts, whether a Trump victory in November would unleash an almighty "bloodbath" and a campaign of vengeance, the fallout from the recent E.U. elections, and the travails of Nigel Farage and his Reform Party in the U.K.  It's a milkshake a minute in British politics!  Never a dull moment.

Please do listen in when you get a chance.  You won't be disappointed!




In other news, while Joe Biden has publicly ruled out pardoning his son Hunter, a commutation of his sentence might still allow Daddy's boy to escape meaningful consequences for his actions.  It would be a miracle if Hunter ever went to prison, believe me!  Even aside from the fact that Sleepy Joe obviously loves his son, he needs to stay on his good side, as the Bidens can most easily escape justice for any crimes related to their influence peddling if they stick together. 

North Dakota has passed a law applying age limits to its federal representatives, i.e. its Senators and its member of the House of Representatives.  Such a law is very unlikely to be upheld by the federal courts, however, so get used to octogenarians telling you what to do!


Finally, the post-verdict polls continue to pile up, and there's just no evidence that everyone's favorite "convicted felon" has taken a tumble.  Quite the contrary -- Trump remains in the driver's seat. 

Tuesday, June 11, 2024

Guilty...of Being a Great Son!


Friends, according to Papa Biden, a.k.a. "the Big Guy", the key takeaway from Hunter Biden's guilty verdict -- he's now a "convicted felon", and we know how seriously the Left takes that moniker -- is that Hunter is a wonderful guy, whose victory over addiction should inspire us all...  Well, that's certainly one way to look at it.  From my own perspective, it's extraordinary that a Delaware jury would convict the president's son, when even Dr. Jill was in the room to make it clear that Hunter has the full support of the Biden clan.  Nevertheless, perhaps this conviction was just what the doctor ordered for the Dems, since it gives the U.S. "justice system" a fig leaf to hide its nakedness behind, and, after all, there's not a chance in heck that Hunter is going to jail.  His dear old Dad certainly won't allow that.  All in all, I expect the political impact to be close to nil, although Hunter's trial for tax evasion might be more consequential, because that hits closer to home, i.e. it involves the family influence peddling business, of which Sleepy Joe is a very big part.


In other news, leftists really, really hate Nigel Farage, and they seem to enjoy throwing things at him.  So far, those things don't include anything lethal, but the election campaign is just getting started in the U.K., so don't rule anything out.  One has to wonder whether DJT will get pelted by irate progressives in the course of our own campaign.  Can't happen, you say?  When Trump was president, I attended a Trump rally, and I easily got within hurling distance of the Commander-in-Chief.  I, of course, am a model citizen who would never milkshake, or assassinate, anyone, but not everyone possesses my admirable restraint! 

Sunday, June 9, 2024

Don't Get Mad -- Get Even?


Friends, the leftist media is full of stories about what a threat to "democracy" Trump is, and how he plans to use his second term to seek vengeance against his enemies.  Funny thing is, quite a few Trumpers are hoping all this is true: they want Trump to settle scores, put lefties in their place, and drive a stake through the heart of the Democratic Party, from which it will never recover.  As Trump himself recently said, "sometimes revenge can be justified".  Well, sure.  Sometimes one man's "revenge" is another man's "justice".  Isn't putting someone in jail for a past crime justified in part by a desire to make them pay for their misdeeds, by a sense that the scales of justice need to be rebalanced by limiting the guilty party's rights and making them suffer...for a legitimate purpose?  


By and large, if you ask me, all this talk of "revenge" is hot air.  The president, by himself, doesn't have much power to make anyone's life difficult.  He would require the active connivance of prosecutors, bureaucrats, law enforcement officials, and others to execute his revenge fantasies, and what are the chances that Trump would find many confederates within the federal goverment that would be prepared to assist him in bringing Democrats to their knees?  Of course, as lefties like to point out, just because Trump failed to "lock her up" in his first term, or to hurt a single leftist except in an emotional sense, that doesn't mean he won't exact retribution in Act Two...  


In the end, what matters most is perception.  If the Dems can convince most voters that Trump is unhinged and vengeful, they can reduce his chances of victory.  Moreover, if Biden and his cronies can convince enough powerful establishment types that Trump represents an existential threat to their power base, and possibly their lives, they might be able to justify even more unorthodox methods designed to stymie him.  "Lawfare" may look quaint and restrained in a few weeks, or a few months, if leftists take seriously their own rhetoric about Trump.  As I've said before, what means would not be justified to stop Trump, if half the things progressives said about him were true?  I mean, even if he's only a demi-Hitler, surely canceling an election, or mobilizing an assassin, would be the right thing to do to forestall his reign of terror, no?  Food for thought.  


It's important to remember that Trump-haters live in a different universe, for all intents and purposes, and they inhabit a completely different headspace than we do.  Thus, their claims and their actions, which often seem paranoid and profoundly irrational to us, will seem utterly commonsensical to them.  In short, then, expect the unexpected, and don't be surprised if whatever norms remain intact in American politics as I write this post are thrown out the window before this election season is over. 

Thursday, June 6, 2024

The Longest Daze


Friends, as you may have heard, the 80th anniversary of the Allied D-Day landings in Normandy, France was marked today by the oldest American president of all time, who heroically remained upright and semi-coherent as he lauded the courage of the few WWII veterans who remain.  He also exploited the opportunity to gin up support for his catastrophic Ukraine policy, and to suggest that anyone who opposes it is basically letting the Nazis win (which is, ironically, exactly the sort of thing that Vladimir Putin would say about his policy).  It was, as one would expect, a conclave of globalists, congratulating themselves on their wisdom and moral superiority, and glossing over the immense differences between the challenges posed by Nazi Germany, fascist Italy, and imperial Japan, all those years ago, and the conundrums posed by a flagging Russia and a surging People's Republic of China today.  Be all that as it may, we at WaddyIsRight tip our hats to all the brave men who fought in World War II, and especially to the millions of them who lay down their lives in service to their countries.  The Second World War was so much more than a didactic tool.  It was, above all, a humanitarian calamity, from which no one but the Grim Reaper emerged an unalloyed victor.

Wednesday, June 5, 2024

What Might Have Been



Friends, this week's Newsmaker Show considers the tantalizing "What If" of a world in which RFK (Sr.) was not assassinated in June 1968.  Kennedy romantics no doubt assume that their boy would have done a far better job of running the country, and managing the Cold War, than, say, Richard M. Nixon.  Who can say?  What we know for sure is that sometimes a lone assassin gets a more decisive voice in history than do tens of millions of American voters, and that's a crying shame.

Brian and I also consider the political fallout from the Trump trial verdict, the uninspiring nature of the two major candidates for the office of P.M. in Britain's upcoming general election, the curious logic behind the West's aggressive strategy in Ukraine, our two-tier system of justice, from which the likes of Hunter Biden benefit, the significance of Joe Biden's "tough" new policy at the southern border, and the apotheosis of President Ronald Reagan.

It's a fine show, and listening in will be the highlight of your day -- and on that you have the WaddyIsRight guarantee!




In other news, Boeing finally notched a win, and NASA secured the secondary option for manned spaceflight that it's been pining for, as the Starliner soared heavenward, after interminable delays.  Kudos to Boeing, and may this success serve to reinvigorate our efforts to return to the Moon and journey onward to Mars. 

Boris Johnson, the Conservative former P.M. of the United Kingdom who was ousted by his fellow "conservatives", is sounding off on the Trump verdict, and he sees right through the Dems' strategy of lawfare.  He argues that Trump's felony convictions will help him win.  I disagree.  The evidence so far indicates that they will have little or no effect on the overall dynamics of the race.  It was already Trump's race to lose, and it remains so.


Finally, I had no idea that there was a big political battle taking place in the state of Texas over the issue of school choice.  In case you didn't know, in red states massive strides have been made in recent years in giving parents more options re: where their kids go to school, or if they go to school -- homeschooling has of course become a much more viable alternative.  I've long believed that, if we want to save Western Civilization, Christianity, and conservatism, the best thing we can do is wrest control of the next generation away from leftist teachers and public school administrators.  Finally, after sitting on our hands for decades, we're making real progress along those lines.  Thank God!!! 

Tuesday, June 4, 2024

A Strategic Retreat at the Southern Border



Friends, Joe Biden has decided that maybe we do have a crisis at the southern border, after all.  That is, he's read the polls and realizes that the millions of illegal immigrants streaming into the country have become a political liability, so he's suddenly prepared to give them the heave-ho.  Now, it's by no means clear that the border crackdown he announced today will be effective, but it's still strident and tough enough to attract condemnation from "pro-immigrant" activists, and maybe that's the point: to earn Sleepy Joe a little street cred as a defender of our territorial integrity.  Will anyone be fooled?  I wouldn't rule out that possibility.  Democrats are smart enough to massage their least popular policies at the margins to reduce political pressure on their candidates in an election year.  That's exactly what's happening here.  A handful of independents might be seduced by the mirage -- and a handful of independents may be all that Biden needs to win. 

In other news, higher ed is on its back foot these days, feeling the heat from the Republican House and from parents and students who are questioning whether it's worth it to spend tens of thousands of dollars a year to receive neo-Marxist indoctrination.  A case in point: Harvard not only fired its joke of a president, but it has also reinstated standardized testing (which any progressive will tell you is inherently racist, because it doesn't yield "equitable" outcomes), and now our most elite university is even dispensing with mandatory diversity statements, which had been required of all prospective new hires.  In effect, these statements forced aspiring professors and staff to align themselves with policies of reverse discrimination, broad assumptions about "system racism", and obligatory white guilt.  You know that something big is happening when elite academic institutions backtrack in their commitment to wokeness.  Could it be that they can sense that the political and cultural winds are beginning to blow in a new direction?  Advertizers and social media companies seem to be reaching the same conclusion, and they've shelved much of their most obnoxious virtue signaling as a consequence.  Let's hope all this adds up to a real civilizational turning point.

Sunday, June 2, 2024

More Democracy Than You Can Shake a Stick At


Friends, even in the USA, democracy seems to have a bit of life left in it.  Despite establishment efforts to silence and/or jail opposition leaders, there's a fighting chance that the American people might have a smidgen of input into the selection of their next president.  In that regard, the first polls to be released since the felony conviction of Republican Party presidential candidate Donald J. Trump -- in a court, and by a jury, strongly disposed to tar-and-feather him -- indicate that his popularity and electoral viability remain intact.  Most interesting!  Meanwhile, a general election in South Africa has left the ruling African National Congress bruised and battered.  With only 40% of seats in the National Assembly, the ANC will have to form a coalition to govern -- and the main opposition party, the Democratic Alliance, would be the obvious choice.  The problem?  Among other things, the party is led by -- gasp! -- a white man.  I can't imagine someone so debased in a position of leadership, but all things are possible...  In Mexico, it looks extremely likely that a woman will soon be the president-elect, while in India Prime Minister Modi, a Hindu nationalist, is apparently cruising to reelection.  All in all, it's encouraging to see "the people" making their voices heard.  There's naturally never any guarantee that the people will get it right, but at least they can vacillate between one extreme and another, giving the body politic a good airing from time to time.  What could be healthier than that?

Thursday, May 30, 2024



Friends, I know many Trumpers who watched the hush money trial in NYC had convinced themselves that DJT would be acquitted, or, at worst, there would be a hung jury.  Well, not so fast!  Turns out that having the D.A. and the presiding judge working against you, in a jurisdiction where the jury pool is inclined to hate you, is pretty bad karma, judicially speaking...  Well, as many are pointing out, the American people get the last word.  The American people and the New York State Court of Appeals, that is.  Trump's convictions could be reversed on any number of grounds.  Anyway, I'll be intrigued to hear your thoughts on these developments.  Politically, I predict that virtually nothing will change, although Trump may take a minor hit in the polls temporarily. 

Wednesday, May 29, 2024

The Sure Thing


Friends, you know the Dems are in a tight spot whenever they start babbling about Michelle Obama and what a dreamboat of a presidential candidate she'd be.  Ha!  That'll be the day.  Dem doubts and wild speculation are two of the themes that Brian and I cover on this week's Nerwsmaker Show.  We also hit the precedents for censorship in American history, the Libertarian Party and its likely impact on the 2024 presidential race, whether the Dems need a fundamental change of strategy to be competitive in this cycle, and the immigration crisis in the U.K. and the declining fortunes of the Conservative Party.

Some would say it's a good show.  Believe you me, those people are underselling it!!!




In other news, jury deliberations are underway in Trump's hush money trial -- or should I say his "business records" trial, because that's what's really at issue.  How will twelve not-so-average New Yorkers decide?  Your guess is as good as mine. 

And check out this article, which chronicles the retreat of most advertizers from wokeness.  I can see where it's coming from.  Yes, corporate America still leans left, as it has for the last several years, but it is much less demonstrably leftist than it was under Trump.  You can see this in the behavior of social media companies, too.  Not so long ago they had actually banned Trump, and many Trumpers, and were proud of the fact.  Now they're striving to be more even-handed and less controversial.  So chalk all this up as a minor right-wing victory in the culture wars.  We're getting corporate suits to think twice about wearing their neo-Marxism on their Brooks Brothers sleeves -- and that's a good thing.