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Wednesday, November 2, 2022

The Pitfalls of Prognostication

 



Friends, this week's Newsmaker Show covers a lot of ground, as they all do.  We consider, for instance, Truman's surprising victory over Dewey in 1948, and what it suggests about the reliability of polls and election forecasts.  We also explore a curious incident in the Soviet war in Afghanistan that killed, amazingly, 3,000 Red Army soldiers.  Naturally, though, we are overwhelmingly focused on current events, since there are so many events currently eventuating.  We look at the state of the midterms, just one week away from electoral D-Day.  We ask whether Elon Musk's stewardship of Twitter will work out well, for Musk, for Twitter, and most importantly for America.  We also look at China's slide into ossified one-man rule, and what it portends for the 21st century, writ large.  All this...and more!  You'd be bonkers not to tune in.


https://wlea.net/newsmaker-november-2-2022-dr-nick-waddy/


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In other news, homeschooling continues to grow as a movement and a phenomenon, but it still impacts only around 3% of U.S. K-12 students.  There's a lot of room there for more expansion, in other words.  One wonders when the teachers' unions will swing into action to nip homeschooling in the bud -- and when the woke industrial complex will make demonizing homeschooling parents a top priority...


https://www.realclearinvestigations.com/articles/2022/11/02/as_states_let_home_schools_be_growing_numbers_are_just_fine_with_that_862241.html


Social media censorship is troubling enough, in itself, but when the federal government administers those censorship campaigns -- in the interests of the ruling class -- Americans should be very troubled.  We're learning more and more about how this Big Tech-Biden Administration collusion works.  Presumably, when Republicans take control of Congress, we'll truly get to the bottom of it.  Luckily, social media companies seem to be rethinking their shameless advocacy of wokeness and progressivism.  They're clearly afraid of a backlash.  They should be, too!


https://www.newsmax.com/politics/censor-information-facebook/2022/11/01/id/1094446/

8 comments:

  1. Dr.Waddy from Jack: Re the broadcast: Would an AG James take a Gov. Zeldin to task? I think AG James is a blatantly partisan prosecutor; maybe that is de riguer in blue cursed New York, where blue office holders disdain any who doubt them. I think a Gov. Zeldin would rile both the NY and national left the same way Gov. DeSantis does, by doing what he says he will do, with determination. That might well bring on AG James' wrath, with which she would be blithe to bring the legal resources of the very state which would have insolently elected him, to bear.

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  2. Dr.Waddy from Jack: I too think Musk will anger both left and right but in doingnso he will garner from the left the vicious opprobrium which totalitarian fanatics reserve for apostates. I think that will drive Musk

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  3. Dr.Waddy from Jack:I think that will drive him that much closer to us as he experiences what so many of us have: the political savagery and vindictiveness of the American far left.

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  4. Dr.Waddy from Jack:I think much of GOP hop efulness stems from the seething resentment we have harbored for unfounded leftist presumption of a mandate since 2020 from their miniscule numerical advantage in Congress.Their intent is abundantly clear: it is to RULE, not govern.We in flyover country have never been as openly disdained by these budding dictators as we KNOW we are now! Naturally we look with unabated determination to righting this wrong and getting these dreamers off our backs and our apparently good prospects motivate us rather than rendering us overly confident. We will turn out!

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  5. I hope you're right about Musk, Jack. There's no way on earth that he could ever be leftist enough to please the leftists...but then again that doesn't seem to stop virtually everyone in the Big Tech universe from trying. I continue to view him as ideologically unreliable, at best, but I do hope he migrates, slowly but surely, in our direction. Maybe the midterms will help him make his mind up?

    Jack, I know many Americans are fed up with Dem misrule. As you say, the key is for them to SHOW UP. The signals are mixed on turnout, but one thing is for sure: Republicans will save the best for last. We tend to dominate on election day, and that will make the difference.

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  6. Dr.Waddy from Jack: You understandably lamented China's domination by Xi : I have had much contact with Chinese America ns and I lived in very Chinese Singapore; and that experience suggests this to me. Chin ese people do very well in democratic settings and are loathe to give it up. Nevertheless, in the very old, deep and creditable civil ization of China a very strong vein of authoritarianism obtains. Traditionally it was exercised by the father and the head of the clan. They had judicial and executive authority even unto capital punishment. Consequently,I think China itself is willing to accept much centralized authoritarian power especially when increasing prosperity, stability , security and national pride is theirs. I agree, Xi is no Mao; he will not force permanent counterintuitive and catastrophic revolution, another starvational " Great Leap Forward" or futile attempts to expunge China's Confucian essence. (His apparent oppression of the Uighurs notwithstanding).China ia great nation and great nations do tend to exercise spheres of influence; we certainly do. Its civilization has had a profound historical effect on East Asia.

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  7. Jack, there's no doubt that the Chinese will accept authoritarianism -- for now -- but I'd say the $64,000 question is: how will they feel when their economy hits a wall and "prosperity" is no longer a given?

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  8. That's a good point, Jack. Historically, the Chinese are long-suffering and deferential to authority. That's nothing that a few American sitcoms can't fix, though!

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