Sunday, November 27, 2022

China on the Brink?


Friends, I'm not naive about the Chinese government's comprehensive apparatus for the suppression of dissent.  Ergo, the recent protests, even though their scale is unprecedented in recent decades, are unlikely to lead to regime change.  Nonetheless, China's CCP masters have been placed on notice.  Of course, it's high time that their corrupt, heartless tyranny faces a reckoning, but the causes of this unrest are simpler ansd more straightforward than any heady demand for "democracy" or "freedom".  Basically, China has been locking people up for no good reason except President Xi's paranoia about COVID, and ordinary folks are getting tired of being incarcerated as a public health measure.  COVID has disrupted daily life and economic activity in China much more than it has here, and that's saying something, as you will know!  Will the Chinese regime back off and embrace a more realistic COVID policy?  My guess would be yes.  The more interesting question is where a new "dialogue" is opening up between the CCP and the Chinese people that could lead to further reforms...or further unrest and destabilization.  And, as I've said a million times, a scared Chinese leadership is a dangerous Chinese leadership.  If I were Taiwan right now, I'd be sweating.


It appears that Gavin Newsom is ruling out a presidential bid in 2024 and supports a second term for Biden.  Excellent!  The Dems are succumbing to collective insanity -- or should I say collective senility?  Either way, I like what I see. 

Elon Musk is getting behind the potential candidacy of Ron DeSantis.  That's not overly surprising given DeSantis's drift to the right, but note that he, like so many "centrist" Americans, isn't rushing to endorse four more years for Trump.  DeSantis just isn't toxic like Trump is -- not yet.  You can bet your bottom dollar that the Dems are working on ways to change that.  Musk's statement also raises once again the intriguing question of how long DeSantis should, or can afford to, keep his powder dry for '24.  There are arguments to be made that he should get in the game ASAP.  There are also arguments to be made that it's in his interests to let Trump take all or most of the Dems' incoming fire for as long as possible.


Remember how the Dems called for, and got, the prosecution of several Trumpers who defied subpoenas from the January 6th committee?  Well, their attitudes to Congressional subpoenas are changing already.  Now a subpoena might not mean much if it isn't "valid" or "legitimate".  Surprise, surprise.  This is one of many reasons why the hearings that House Republicans are planning may fall flat. 


  1. Dr.Waddy from Jack: Well, perhaps Chinese prosperity wasn't all I thought it cracked up to be in keeping China content.

  2. Dr. Waddy from Jack: Musk liking DeSantis could be a big deal. Maybe he can become the antiSoros.

  3. Dr.Waddy from Jack: You have long predicted the possibility of wide spread unrest in China and the credibility lent your observations by recent events further accredits your caution about consequent danger for Taiwan. Here are some factors which I think obtain at present in China: Many millions of older Chinese bear living witness both to past destitution and to the insane rampage of unrestrained youth during the Cultural Revolution, which victimized so many of the mature.Traditional deeply rooted veneration for age and a resolve to never again allow youth such license I th ink restrained public reaction to the Tien An Mien massacre. Can Xi count on similar support should he massively and corporally repress these protests? Televised images appear to show mainly young people demonstrating. Should he think it unwise to strike at the protestors, then Taiwan
    may well be in grave danger. Perhaps even then Xi would make just enough of an imminent threat to Taiwan to arouse the support usually manifested in wartime.

  4. Jack, as much as I think the Chinese regime faces long-term danger from below, I have my doubts about whether any potent short-term danger exists. Seems to me that the regime can probably deal with this upsurge via repression (which it's good at), combined with strategic retreats on some forms of COVID insanity. I believe you're fundamentally correct that, as long as the Chinese economy remains strong, most Chinese will not upset the apple cart of CCP dominance. Could we be in for some sabre-rattling on Taiwan...or even against the U.S. directly? Sure. I think the Chicoms are a long way from hitting the panic button, though.