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Monday, September 5, 2022

Slim Hope?

 


Friends, here in my home state of New York, we're all bracing for another statewide win by a lamentable leftist loon, Governor Kathy Hochul, in her re-election bid.  The Republican candidate, Lee Zeldin, is way, way behind in the vast majority of polls.  The vast majority, but not this one...  Trafalgar has Zeldin behind by just four and a half points.  Do I believe it?  I dunno.  Trafalgar has a good track record, and many fundamentals favor the party out of power in this election cycle, but New York has become incredibly, some might say terminally, blue...  We shall see.  In any case, if you keep track of the midterm polls as a whole, you'll notice lots of inconsistencies.  Polling really is an art as much as it's a science, and there's ample room for ambiguity, such that we genuinely have no idea who will (credibly) claim victory in the wake of November 8th.  Hold on to your hats!


https://www.thetrafalgargroup.org/wp-content/uploads/2022/09/NY-General-Poll-Report-0902.pdf

2 comments:

  1. Dr. Waddy from Jack: Yeah, polling has many times proven unreliable. Recent speculation on either a very much reduced red wave or even a blue wave enabling a woke onslaught, has appeared. Of course canny politicos know such suggestions can foster damaged morale in the faction whose power is thereby put to doubt and that that can have electoral consequences. Let us therefore continue in full attack mode thru the election!!!

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  2. Jack, the MSM has a long track record of exaggerating Dem public support, and I strongly suspect that will be the case here too. I think the GOP can count on winning the national popular vote for the House by 2-3 points, but that still doesn't mean that the Senate is in the bag, sadly.

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