Friends, so far we've been operating on the assumption that relatively small numbers of people in the West have been exposed to the coronavirus, and we need to isolate those people -- in fact, we need to isolate everyone -- so the virus doesn't spread any further. That may be true. There are also theories, however, which suggest that the virus has already spread to half or more of the population, but that in the vast majority of those affected it produces no symptoms. In this case, isolating those already infected from others who are already infected is...pointless, and containing the virus in any sense is beyond hopeless. Needless to say, it matters a great deal which of these models is the correct one. That's why it's so inscrutable why no country has done systemic, randomized testing to try to ascertain how much of the general population is infected. Luckily, we may soon remedy this oversight.
https://spectator.us/half-uk-population-already-coronavirus/
I would add that, if the latter model (of mass infection) is the more accurate one, it begs the question of why more people aren't getting sick in China, Japan, and South Korea. If the virus really does spread like wildfire and goes under the radar for weeks or months before it's noticed, then half or more of Asia should be infected too...and quite a few Asians (millions?) ought to be sick. And yet they're not. So maybe, in the final analysis, the truth is somewhere in-between the extremes of these two models. What that would suggest about public health policy is above my pay grade.
In other news, this week unemployment claims surged to 3 million, an all-time record. That's clearly not good news, but frankly I'm surprised that the number isn't much higher. After all, half the country's population is under house arrest. The number of unemployed could be in the tens of millions. That it isn't, yet, probably means many employers are doing their best not to give their workers their walking papers. Good for them.
After this pandemic passes, get ready for the next one. Start thinking of names for the next one. How about Creeping Crude 21?
ReplyDeleteI have decided on a better nickname than "Destroyer of Liberals", so beginning now it is Stupor Mundi after one of my favorite historical characters. That's permanent. Thanks.
Frederick the Second, I believe? I am afraid, I liked Destroyer of Liberals better, you do not strike me as a Frederick, grin.
DeleteP.S. Stupor Mundi, me again, your favorite pest ((grin)). So, I knew Frederick II was mentioned in one of the required readings from a class I took a last semester (I admit I did look at the required reading to refresh my mind). I have since changed my mind, perhaps your name does fit, wink.
DeleteI might just go back to Anonymous. Ha!
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DeleteRolling eyes-thank goodness you can't see it. LOL
DeletePerhaps the "world' is not presenting all the facts, Dr. Waddy. I am not willing to be tested just for the heck of it, sorry. I thought for sure the unemployment would be much higher. Glad to see you are using "House Arrest" LOL. On that note, time to take a walk and see what kind of trouble awaits me. wink
ReplyDeleteLinda
ReplyDeleteYou are correct in that all the facts are NOT being presented. The media control is very powerful, and I'm sure information is being withheld deliberately.
Personally, I think this is not the first "mysterious" pandemic. There will be more in the future, with the media and politicians doing the same stuff they are doing now. I certainly hope I am absolutely wrong about my prediction.
I'm just saying...I think it has been here longer than what has been told. I was deathly ill last spring with re ocurring pneumonia, flu like, fever for 15-20 days. The dr.'s couldn't figure out what or why. Z packs the whole time.
DeleteIn the end, this pandemic still looks like "germ warfare" either accidentally or deliberately. It's being "sold" as some strange virus, but that story is not all that convincing.
ReplyDeleteStupor Mundi it is! (But if you switch it up, so be it.)
ReplyDeleteLinda, you're certainly right that we lack all the data we need. I doubt there will ever be a need to test everyone. The key is to test a randomized sample, like in a poll. That would be very eye-opening. I trust it will happen in the coming days.
Linda, just because you were sick before, with all due respect, doesn't mean much. Millions are sick in the U.S. right now with illnesses OTHER THAN COVID-19. No doubt all of them are racking their brains, trying to figure out if they MIGHT have the dreaded virus. We should all take a deep breath, in my opinion!
Anonymous, more and more studies are coming out to confirm the "natural" origins of the virus. Again, if you have evidence to the contrary, I encourage you to share it... A "hunch" is just a hunch, I'm afraid.