Friends, I'm always thinking great thoughts, as you know, but seldom are you blessed with two of my classic ruminations -- nay, intellectual masterworks! -- in one day. Today is such a day. First, there's this week's Newsmaker Show, which focuses exclusively on the midterm election results and their ramifications.
https://wlea.net/newsmaker-november-10-2022-dr-nick-waddy/
Next, there's my latest article, which does the same thing, but a little more systematically. Read and be amazed! In a nutshell, I view this election as more of a draw than a win for either side. Maybe you agree?
How the Red Wave Became a Pinkish
Wavelet
Given that the
midterms failed to generate the unambiguous Republican triumph that
many conservatives expected, it is natural that we ask the question:
why not? There appear to be numerous reasons, with the important
caveat that Republicans did not fare so badly, and even our failures
may have silver linings that will improve our prospects in 2024 –
an election that will be far more determinative of our country's
fate.
One
number leaps out of the exit
poll
published by NBC News: 27% of voters defined abortion as the most
important factor in their vote, and, by a modest margin, these voters
favored the Democrats. By contrast, 31% cited inflation as their top
concern, and only 11% cited crime. That is a shocking result, based
on prior polling and Republicans' expectations. From this
perspective, it appears that the Dems' big bet on abortion in their
ad spending was not in vain, and the GOP effort to make crime a
centerpiece of the 2022 election fell somewhat flat. Again, the
pre-election polling mostly suggested it was the Dems who were
barking up the wrong tree, but electoral realities do not always take
shape in the way pollsters predict.
The
Democrats and their media allies work 24/7 to make Republicans seem,
not just “extreme”, but dangerous, unbalanced, seditious, and
criminally violent. Based on exit polling, 68% of the voters believe
that American democracy is “threatened”, but, on the other hand,
those who said it is did not vote appreciably differently than those
who said it is “secure”. In addition, overall the voters do not
regard the Republicans as any more “extreme” than the Democrats
(52% versus 51%, respectively). There is no evidence, therefore, that
Democratic handwringing about January 6th
moved a great many swing voters to choose to vote blue.
On the other
hand, we cannot discount the possibility that, in a year in which
Democrats had little else to enthuse them, dark fantasies about
insurrections, fascism, and back-alley abortions may have driven many
Democrats to the polls who would not otherwise have shown up.
Elections are largely about rallying the base, and, since Biden is
clearly incapable of doing so, the Democrats had to fall back on
pure, blinding hatred of their political enemies. It appears to have
worked.
Was Trump a major
factor in 2022? He played an outsized role in helping Republicans to
choose some of their most important candidates, and some of those
candidates were demonstrably flawed. On the other hand, Republican
underperformance was very broad-based and was observable in the many
races in which Trump had little or no role. It is also worth
observing that the 58% of voters who view Trump unfavorably is not
appreciably higher than the 56% who feel the same way about President
Biden. 47% of voters said Biden was not a factor in their decision.
54% said the same about Trump. It would be silly, therefore, to view
the 2022 election as fundamentally yet another referendum on Donald
Trump.
Of course, one
thing an exit poll cannot capture is the profile of who did not vote,
and why. Republicans, in the wake of these disappointing results,
have to ask themselves whether their constant fretting about election
integrity and outright fraud may have convinced a considerable number
of like-minded Americans to give up on electoral politics, because
they view it as futile and rigged. These sentiments are strong among
Republicans and conservatives, and they represent a powerful threat
to GOP prospects in 2024 and beyond.
To the extent
that concerns about election integrity are legitimate, on the other
hand, Republicans need to demonstrate progress – as they have at
the state and local level – in improving the system, reducing
opportunities for fraud, and catching and punishing fraudsters. By
doing so, they can reassure Republican voters that, when they cast
their ballots, their votes will be recorded, and they will not be
submerged in a flood tide of phony ballots.
Whatever caused
Republican underperformance in 2022, the fact is that Republicans won
may important matchups. Ron DeSantis's political star continues to
rise, and Republicans will almost certainly control the House,
meaning that they can block the Biden Administration's legislative
and budgetary agenda and hold the Democrats accountable by increasing
the scrutiny on their misdeeds. Control of the Senate is still
pending, but if the GOP can eke out a majority it will be much harder
for the Dems to claim momentum coming out of the midterms – and,
more importantly, Biden's transformation of the judiciary will move
at a crawl, if it moves at all.
The best news for
Republicans is that the Democrats' relief, verging on exaltation,
about the 2022 results means that their great albatross, Joe Biden,
is feeling more confident than ever that his party needs his singular
leadership qualities in 2024 and beyond. This almost certainly
presages a long battle in the Democratic Party to decide on their
nominee in 2024, and to determine whether the party is currently too
progressive, not progressive enough, or about right. The GOP can take
comfort in the fact that the standard-bearer for the Democrats in
2024 may well be a fumbling octogenarian, or he/she/ze may end up
being someone far to the left of Biden on many issues, and thus
unelectable.
On the other
hand, Republicans must heed their own warning signs. Even before the
2022 election was finished, Donald Trump had begun to direct
criticism at Ron DeSantis, who he understandably perceives as a
potential rival. That Trump intends to run again appears obvious.
That many Republicans, especially in the leadership of the party,
have grown weary of Trump and fear that he could lead them to abject
defeat in 2024 is equally obvious. Whether DeSantis, or someone else,
can best Trump in the primaries, however, is doubtful, given the
immense leads that Trump has in virtually every poll of Republicans'
preferences.
Whoever emerges
as the GOP nominee in 2024, there is a strong possibility that they
will be scarred by a long, vicious internecine battle that may damage
the party fundamentally. Tens of millions of Republican voters are
loyal and passionate Trumpers – and whether they would continue to
vote in support of a party that spurned their idol is the $64,000
question that Republican Party leaders, and potential candidates like
Ron DeSantis, now have to weigh. In other words, Republicans and
conservatives need to ask themselves: can Trump win in 2024? And, if
the answer is no, then the next question has to be: can anyone else
on the Republican side win, absent Trump's blessing and enthusiastic
support?
In the end, the
results and ramifications of the 2022 election are mixed and
ambiguous, and portend opportunities and challenges for both sides.
As Churchill once quipped, having been informed of his stunning
defeat in the 1945 parliamentary election as he emerged from his
bath, “That's democracy... Hand me my towel.”
Dr.
Nicholas L. Waddy is an Associate Professor of History at SUNY Alfred
and blogs at: www.waddyisright.com.
He appears on the Newsmaker Show on WLEA 1480/106.9.
You can also see it at World Net Daily:
https://www.wnd.com/2022/11/gops-awol-red-wave-implications-2024/
