Friends, the markets don't seem to like the erratic application (and revocation) of tariffs against our major trade partners. I can't say I'm surprised. The Trump strategy on tariffs has been opaque, at best, and amateurish and senseless, at worst. The Canadians, for their part, seem to be itching for a fight. They're retaliating against tariffs that don't even exist yet. The Left, meanwhile, is giddy with vindication, as they see any potential recession, first and foremost, as a way to weaken public enemy number one, i.e. Trump. Of course, a few days of a bear market does not a recession make. There's still time for the fundamental strength of the U.S. economy to come to our rescue -- and for Trump to clarify and improve the package of tariffs that he intends to apply. My view is that reciprocal tariffs make a good deal of sense, but, as yet, we don't have any in place. By contrast, the blanket 25% tariffs against Canada and Mexico, which were never fully implemented, have nonetheless had a hugely destabilizing effect on the U.S. and global economy, and on our relationships with those countries. Was that really necessary? I think not.
https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c4gdwgjkk1no
Meanwhile, Elon Musk's "X", formerly known as Twitter, has been hit by a series of massive cyberattacks. He suspects that actors in Ukraine may be involved. What's abundantly clear is that very powerful forces, domestically and internationally, would like to do Musk harm -- and, before all is said and done, I suspect he and his businesses will suffer severely. This will be a test of character for Musk, and for those of us who support what he is doing. If ever there was a time to "vote with your feet" and buy a Tesla, or start posting on X, or subscribe to Starlink, this is it!
Dr. Waddy from Jack: Pres. Reagan's reforms caused some economic unrest for a while but redounded to our benefit in good time.
ReplyDeletePres. Trump is a practiced "player", especially for the long run. NYC skyscrapers do not go up summarily. He has postponed the 25% tariffs on Canada and Mexico twice; perhaps he is playing games with both countries in order to "assure" the concessions he wants. I regret that he believes it necessary to do so even with a good neighbor like Canada and , yes, Canada is no pushover; but DJT MAY be right in doing it.
And maybe he IS making a mistake with these "negotiable" incentives.You have made a very plausible argument that this may well manifest economic hardship and consequent political setback which could delay or derail some of his agenda ,understandably disenchant some of his supporters and bring hardship to our vital business sector.
The far left of course revels in any disfunction and disorder bringing hardship to the "masses" . Clintonian seer Rahm Emanuel famously lauded the utility of crises. Although radicals are seasoned fomenters of disfunction and disorder, they are thankful when their opponents give them a head start. Didn't Lenin expectorate something like "give the capitalists enough rope and they will hang themselves". 'Course Lenin was VERY familiar with the practice of hanging. ("Koba", (Stalin's nickname)" while you are at it, hang 5000 peasants as examples in that pesky province, at your convenience.") Lots of Lenin portraits in the dens of the radicals in our country. yes?
And I agree with you on reciprocal tariffs.
Dr. Waddy from Jack: The far left has over the last 60 years almost gained the ability to destroy America. Had it won in Nov. it might well have been able to seal the deal. It has done this , on balance (the only objective measure of a country's worth), just country incalculable damage and injustice with its dreamy evil.
ReplyDeleteNow we have an administration willing to actually do the hard work of taking our country back and then beyond. Some historians think Russia had itself on a fairly constructive path before WWI brought it the theretofore unimaginably catastrophic curse of marxist rule. For the U.S. it was not a world war but an astonishing and bitterly counterintuitive domestic cultural phenomenom which empowered our analogous far left and almost suffered it to reduce us to totalitarian serfdom.
They made a rare old mess and it will take some serious measures to clean it up. DJT and JD may well be right in bidding us prepare for some difficulties, doubt and discomfort. Naturally the still lethal far left is doing all it can to make that task all that much more trying by viciously opposing our country's redemption. They know that its success would be their comprehensive ruin. They would lose all: their government and NGO sinecures secured by unlimited taxation and spending; their proven ability and delight in asserting their undeserved but cleverly conceived doctrinal moral authority to intimidate any who dare to oppose them ,no matter how trivial, imagined or fabricated the "offense"; the fulfillment of their intense, self inflicted , emotional needs by endless fault finding in our society, legality, polity and culture and their consequent ruthless totalitarian perfectionism, disgraced beyond measure by its haughty disregard of any innocents it might wrong; and the raw power of their demonstrated willingness to violate all standards of decency and humanity (i.e. the promise of oppression unlimited should they rule) in meeting opposition or even measured doubt.
We have reached the decisive moment in our ongoing cold civil war . We have recklessly put such surely ultimately terribly destructive practices as endless "tax and spend" out of our minds. We can no longer do so. We have been vastly benefitted by the courageous rise of a 77 year old man who could be sojourning in wealthy luxury now, but who endured terrible injustices to reacquire the power to lead the redemption of this country. This was historically good fortune and we must not waste it!
We would do best by resolving to also be willing to endure some travail in order to help this hopeful development along. We cannot hold it against our business community for reacting cautiously to circumstances their hard won experience tells them to be dangerous to their continued ability to generate the incredible, unprecedentedly wide spread prosperity with which we are blessed in our lucky land! It is their professional obligation and it manifests the constructive self seeking which is one of the pillars of our miraculous economy. The parasitic far left murderously disdains this rationale when in power but its leadership unfailingly practices it while forcing universal suffering on its terrorized subjects.
Jack, I would remind you that quite a few of Reagan's reforms were dialed back because of the recession of the early 80s. His tax cuts were very quickly superseded by tax increases, for instance. The size of government, lest we forget, continued to increase. Now, was Reagan responsible for that recession? Heck, no. But that's kinda the point: every president is captive to the business cycle, and just as a recession threw Reagan off his game the same could happen to Trump.
ReplyDeleteCould Trump win the "long game" in our trade war with Canada and Mexico? Easily! I hope he will. He has to be careful, though, because there's nothing the establishment would like more right now than a recession that they could hang around his neck.
I take your point that short term pain may lead to long term prosperity, as well as enhanced sovereignty, in practice. I could live with tariffs of 25%, or 50%, or 1,000%, ultimately. So could we all. What I don't like is the erratic nature in which these tariffs are being implemented (and usually un-implemented shortly thereafter). That's not a strategy worthy of the name.
Dr. Waddy from Jack: I stand corrected on Reagan. I remembered it as an economic downturn at first and then steady growth and I didn't recall tax increases. The country was very willing to reelect him . He tried to cut the size of government but was not as astonishingly vigorous about it as is DJT. His gov't and cost cutting factor, David Stockman, was savagely excoriated by the then more dominant bigoted and leftist ( though not yet quite as FAR left as now) shill MSM and the chattering classes.
ReplyDeleteJack, it will be fascinating to assess the size of government in a year, or two, or three. If DOGE could achieve zero growth -- let alone shrinkage -- it would be a LARGE miracle.
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