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Thursday, October 17, 2019

Boris Back on Top?



Friends, Boris Johnson's Conservative government has struck a new deal with the EU.  If Parliament approves it on Saturday, then Britain could be in the position of leaving the EU on time on October 31st with a deal that will cushion the blow of Brexit.  Since Johnson's opponents have said all along that he couldn't strike a new deal, and didn't even want to, needless to say he has put them on the defensive.  Moreover, since most MPs claim to want to avoid a no-deal outcome at all costs, how can they justify voting "no" on Boris's new and improved deal?  The answer is that most of them hate Boris so much that they'll vote "no" automatically, and quite a few probably think the alternative to this new deal is yet another extension, so what's the rush?  The outcome is far from assured.  Nigel Farage is urging MPs to vote "no", because he believes a no-deal Brexit is still in the cards and would be preferable.  He may yet get his way.  If Parliament won't play ball with Boris, then Boris can legitimately say to the EU, "I may be legally required to ask you for an extension, but you would be crazy to grant it.  It's time to put this nightmare to bed and accept that a no-deal Brexit is the best we can do."  All he would need is one EU state to agree, and that's all she wrote...  In that sense, whatever Parliament does on Saturday, Boris Johnson -- and the British people -- may come out ahead.

https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-50079385

11 comments:

  1. Dr. Waddy: Though the remainder of this October is fraught with existential danger for "Perfidious Albion" your report and commentary inspires hope. I was at first alarmed at Farage's opposition to Johnson's deal but it may suggest two favorable outcomes. What drama for all who love Britain and its legacy!

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  2. You said it, Jack! High drama indeed. I see some European voices are echoing Boris's line that it's this new deal, or no deal, but October 31st is the deadline. That increases the likelihood that Parliament will fall into line. The beauty is that, if it does end up as no deal, Boris can say it was all Corbyn's fault!

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  3. Dr. Waddy and Linda: I watched the the announcement today of the vote on the amendment which delayed the final vote and I don't know what to think of it. Could the final vote be yet at hand and could it redound to the favor of Brexit?

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    1. No. I highly doubt it, Jack. I seriously think they want to overturn the peoples vote and that is the bottom line.

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  4. Jack, Linda -- my sense is that, unless the EU decides (unanimously) to undermine Boris's position, the extension will be denied and the new deal will be passed. Of course, many forces in Britain are still trying to blow up Brexit, but my money's on Boris and democracy.

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  5. Dr. Waddy and Linda: Today's development: what I make of it is that the Speaker has ruled that Saturday's vote on the Letwin(?) Amendment amounted to an up or down vote on Brexit and that done, another vote is against the rules. Did I get it right. What goes now?

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    1. I don't know Jack (you beat me to posting about this, grin).

      According to the BBC, "recommending the EU27 accept the UK request for an extension" in order to "avoid a no-deal Brexit"." And from Johnson, "I will speak to EU member states about their intentions [but] until they have reached a decision - until we reach a decision, I will say - we will pause this legislation."

      I'll tell you, the people are getting a raw deal, thanks to the Parliament.

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  6. Yes, it's all mighty confusing, but I still believe Boris is making progress. To me, the big development today was that Parliament voted 329-299 in favor of Boris's new deal. Yes, the timeline is still up for debate, and the EU has yet to weigh in on the extension, but if Parliament can be persuaded to back Boris's plan, then there's light at the end of the tunnel. Take heart! An election is also likely soon.

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  7. Dr. Waddy and Linda: This would seem to me to be a hopeful, perhaps decisive, development.Isn't this the first time Parliament has accepted a Brexit deal negotiated by a PM? And Johnson has obeyed the law by asking for an extension. As for an election: my knowledgeable son argues that Johnson would want an election even after a Brexit triumph in order to advance his agenda. Which comes first? The chicken or the egg? Would a Brexit victory enhance the Conservatives' chances in a general election or is it necessary for the Brexit success of an extended process. Dr. Waddy: I share your optimism.

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  8. Good to hear, Jack! Yes, the recent vote was the first time that any Brexit deal passed muster in Parliament. A very good sign. So there are three balls in the air: the Brexit extension, Brexit itself, and a new general election. Which comes first, second, and third? That we don't know. It's possible that they could get an extension, set an election date, pass the Brexit bill, and then have an election. I would put my money on that -- unless they defer a decision on Brexit until after the election. From Boris's perspective, though, why wait? There's always a chance you could lose the election. Plus, delivering Brexit would be a huge feather in his cap!

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