Friends, is there any problem Trump can't solve? Well, time will tell, but one thing is for sure: he's going to shake up the American/NATO strategy in Ukraine in a big way, and hopefully in a way that will end the fighting posthaste. That's the subject of my most recent article, published at World Net Daily:
Dr. Waddy from Jack: Your recommendation for peace in Ukraine is very well reasoned and I agree almost completely, with only one minor digression.
ReplyDeleteCrimea was part of the Ottoman Empire until the 19th century. That of course does not necessarily define its culture . The Ottomans ruled cultures much different and varient from that of Muslim Ottoman Turks, eg. much of the Balkans. I do not know what Crimea's ethnic makeup is; IF given the choice they would probably choose what they perceive as the lesser of the evils.
I would guess the Russophone Donbass region would opt for Russian rule (?) And Russia might just be persuaded to see it as a buffer( a plug in the dam if you will) similar in a geographically small way to the old Warsaw Pact. A very powerful Russian presence in that region might ease some of their anxiety and outrage. Having this they might even reluctantly agree to some relatively informal mode of Western "assistance" to a rump Ukraine.
Politics , including international relations,is often described as the "art of the possible"(i.e. the plausible; I mean, it was technically possible for us to drop the bomb on Stalin between '45 and '49 without fear of nuclear response but it was probably best we refrained ). The West may find it very hard to empathize with a Russia which has confirmed its customary ruthlessness in this war. But for the sake of world peace it must keep a very clear eye on grim reality. Russia WILL NEVER tolerate Nato in Ukraine or Ukraine in Nato. That is the bottom line.
Ethnic Ukraine acted out of completely understandable fear and loathing of Great Russian domination and it eagerly embraced the West's apparent offers of Nato membership. But the West acted out of overconfidence that its progress to the very borders of the Russian Republic , in Poland, meant that the Russians were almost infinitely malleable and pusillanimous. That was a fatal miscalculation on our part and Ukraine is paying a terrible price for having depended on it. So it is entirely appropriate that we, the allied West, help Ukraine to recover economically after the restoration of peace. It would be futile to expect Russia to do so, I think.
I agree, Jack. We bear a lot of responsibility for the calamity that has befallen Ukraine. We ought to pick up the tab for rebuilding it. Indeed, that money would be much better spent than billions more for intra-Slavic bloodletting.
ReplyDeleteThe population of Crimea is overwhelmingly Russian, BTW, which makes it virtually unthinkable that it will ever return to Ukraine's orbit.