Friends, I have an inkling of what's on your mind. You're wondering: who's gonna win this all-important election? Does Waddy know? I mean, he seems to know everything. Surely he knows this...
Well, I do have a prediction: I believe Trump will win and reasonably handily. I believe he'll win the national popular vote and almost all of the swing states. I base that prediction on...data, and lots of it.
Now, I could get into the weeds, but instead I'll let this guy do it, as he's done all the legwork and set it down in one very long but deliciously detailed article. See what you make of his analysis.
Interesting article by Boyle for sure, making the case for either candidate. For a featured Brietbart piece, you might call it spineless.
ReplyDeleteHis piece didn't highlight what may be the nail in coffin for the Dems.
Boyle hints at it, but if either party is under polled consistently, it seems that is the Republican side. Why is that?
One theory is that a large portion of Republicans see national polling as a tool of the main stream media and they loathe that arm of the Democratic Party. So... they decide they are not going to play their game. Let them think they have it in the bag.
Another thought is the Republicans are home for the majority of the honorable working class, the proudly less "educated", the "leave me alone" types. You know... the proud everyman's "garbage" folks.
Their phone numbers largely aren't in the pollsters dialing databases, and if called, they won't answer.
Those are the same folks who have any number of genuine motivations to turn out this year. They are also most likely to show up in person at the polls on Tuesday.
One can't help but think they are the ones who are going to rock this election. If real votes are what's counted, this shouldn't be close.
We shall see.
Dr. Waddy from Jack: My device gave me some kind of security warning when I called up the Breitbart article. I'm more than satisfied to rely on your interpretation of it and on the credibility of your prediction about the election. You always express measured conclusions based on objective sources and reasoning. Good luck to us all. . . .
ReplyDeleteRichie, any of your speculations could be true about the under-polling of Republicans and Trump supporters, but you forgot my number one reason: leftist wish fulfillment. They're not going to assume a Trumpy electorate because they don't want there to be one, and they don't want to admit that there could be one. Granted, they've hedged their bets somewhat by admitting that the election is close, but most of the MSM outlets have consistently given a narrow edge to Biden and/or Harris. And these are polls that have a long track record of getting it wrong! Why double down on wrong-headedness? The question answers itself, I think.
ReplyDelete