Friends, amidst all the news that doesn't amount to a hill of beans, there's this nugget:
https://news.yahoo.com/video/mass-protest-breaks-chinese-province-224311156.html
The worst nightmare of the Chinese leadership is that the unrest in Hong Kong will spread like an infection to other parts of their communist domain. And it could easily happen: many Chinese are frustrated by the lack of freedom the regime permits, and by the intractable social and environmental problems it ignores. Frankly, I'm surprised that the Chinese bigwigs have allowed things to get so out of hand in Hong Kong. That they have done so is a testament to how flatfooted they become when their usual techniques to control and manipulate public opinion come up short. What is clear, though, is that China is sweating, and now is therefore not the time to pick a fight with the world's only superpower and its "America First" President. China has been playing a long game with Trump, coyly refusing to seal a deal to end our trade war because they seem to assume that time is on their side. My advice: it isn't, so get busy inking a trade agreement while you still can. President Trump's signing of the recent pro-Hong Kong bills passed by Congress was a shot across the bow of the Chinese leadership. The U.S. can do much more to destabilize China if it wishes. But that isn't our wish, and it certainly isn't Trump's. We want -- we demand -- trade fairness and reciprocity from China, but in return we will gladly offer China a free hand to resolve its own internal problems. Think on that, Chicoms. How many battles do you want to fight simultaneously? How many PR headaches can one regime endure? It's time to admit defeat on trade, while perhaps also claiming victory in a broader sense, since truly free trade between the U.S. and China will benefit both sides. It will also bring stability and trust to the U.S.-China relationship -- a development that would benefit the whole world. Stop dragging your feet, China! Bow to the inevitable. Bow to Trump.
Dr. Waddy: If this Diablus ex Machina device will allow me to complete my comment: What you have said makes a great deal of sense.
ReplyDeleteIf the Hong Kong unrest spreads, as it apparently has to neighboring Guangdong Province (I'm not good with the presently favored PinYin system of romanization of the Chinese language),then visions of 1989 Europe may appear both to the world and to the Chinese leadership. A canny player like President Trump may well be fully aware of this and he may not even need China experts to perceive it. I so very fervently hope for agreement between our country, which rightfully seeks equitable trade with China, and with that transcendent East Asian civilization itself.
Jack, I just hope the latter-day mandarins know what they're doing, because if they screw it up the whole world could be picking up the pieces for generations. I really wish the Chinese would stop playing chicken with Trump. It's a dangerous game.
ReplyDeleteDr. Waddy:Is there perhaps a useful analogy to be seen in Japan's overreach after their very successful modernization in the early 20th century? Just as Japan lacked experience with international power, nobody in China has experience with extended prosperity. I'm not suggesting a second Pearl Harbor is on the way but your warning of disaster for China is thought provoking.
ReplyDeleteJack, that's a very good point: China doesn't have deep experience with prosperity, democratic protest, a large middle class, intense and sustained global involvement -- you name it. The potential for screw-ups is infinite. It would be surprising if China DIDN'T face some disasters in the years ahead.
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