Sunday, July 11, 2021

Chicken Soup for Trumpers' Souls


Friends, as you well know, conservatives, Republicans, and Trumpers tend to be pretty depressed these days.  I mean, we're living under Bidenist tyranny, after all.  The strange truth, though, is that a lot of Dems and progressives are down in the dumps too.  Why?  Because they're mentally ill?  That's only half the story.  Lefties are also feeling some "buyer's remorse" over the 2020 election.  They voted for the permanent enthronement of neo-Marxists, after all, and for the total debasement and destruction of their enemies.  They voted for the radical transformation of America into a socialist paradise.  They had, in short, high expectations of what a victory over Trump and Trumpism would mean...and now they're stuck with the harsh reality of what it means to "govern" America.  It means, by and large, frustration and disappointment.  The system is basically designed to obstruct "progress" and meaningful change.  What's more, the Dems' majorities in both houses of Congress are razor-thin, and their "victory" in the last presidential election, for all their huffing and puffing, was by the skin of their teeth, too.  Worst of all, they don't control the federal courts, which have the final say on, well, everything!  Thus, more than a few lefties are growing restless, and they're coming to realize just how inconsequential their historic "victory" in 2020 really was.  When you, as a conservative, Republican, and/or Trumper start to feel morose about our country's predicament, therefore, remember this: a lot of Dems and progressives are just as despondent as you -- and for equally valid reasons.  Take pleasure in their pain!  It's only human...


In other news, it turns out men were more adversely affected by the pandemic, at least in higher ed, than women.  No doubt the Dems will rush aid immediately to us downtrodden males, right?  Ha!  Guess again. 

Charlottesville, Virginia today completed the obliteration of its statues of Robert E. Lee and Stonewall Jackson -- and they threw in Lewis and Clark and Sacagawea for good measure.  Next: the retirement of the American flag flying over city hall, and its prompt replacement with the proud banner of transgenderism.  Hooray!


Finally, President Trump gave a rousing speech to CPAC-Dallas, and he easily triumphed in their straw poll.  Ron DeSantis was a distant second.  That about sums up the GOP presidential sweepstakes at the present moment: the 2024 nomination is Trump's for the taking. 


  1. Nick, first, a 7+ million vote victory is not a "skin-of-your-teeth" election. Plus, as I demonstrated to your before, even the margins of swing states represented a significant shift of votes from red to blue.

    The Democrats are not concerned so long as Trump is the voice of the GQP. He has no ideas -- only rants about how badly he was treated. The rallies at OH, FL and CPAC covered exactly the same ground. That's enough to fire up his shrinking base, but he is not expanding that base. It's as if the GQP has decided that between the census and gerrymandering that they will pick up the seats needed to reclaim the House. What they forget is that every single seat the Dems lost in 2020 was won by Dems in 2022. Even if they regain half of those seats, they hold the House (unless something catastrophic happens).

    Beyond that, the Dems are all-positioned in 2022. Only GA is really vulnerable, though if the GQP seriously thinks Herschel Walker can beat Sen. Warnock, they are going to be shocked. NH, NM and AZ will be close, but the incumbents should be fine.

    OTOH, the Dems will easily flip WI and PA. NC will be competitive. If OH nominates Josh Mandel or J.D. Vance, Tim Ryan will wipe them out (Ryan appeals to the same group as Sherrod Brown). If Greitens gets nominated in MO, the Dems should easily win if Koster or Nixon enter the race.

    Then there is Alaska. In 2010, Murkowski won as a write-in candidate, so if she loses the GQP primary, watch her do that again -- or run as an independent. But Al Gross will also be running as an Independent, and he ran up 42% of the vote against Dan Sullivan. I would not bet against Murkowski, but she and the GQP candidate could split the vote enough for Gross to win.

    I don't expect a Dem +6, but I'd be shocked without a Dem +2. And, +2 is all that is needed for things like the filibuster to go, etc.

  2. You're the eternal optimist, Rod! For all your rose-colored-glasses thinking, you're certainly right that the Dems could pick up Senate seats in 2022, and that would put them in striking distance of overturning the filibuster. You're wrong, though, to underrate the GOP's chances of taking the House, and even if Trump is the nominee in 2024 that election will be competitive, especially if you're saddled with Kam-Kam. You forget that Trump and Republicans don't NEED to "expand their base". 74 million votes is plenty! What they need is to discourage YOUR base, which is what naturally happens to the President's party in a typical midterm cycle anyway. Progressives are starting to notice how meager the results are that a Dem House and Senate can achieve. And as for Biden -- he was practically designed in a laboratory to cause disappointment. So all that you predict CAN come to pass. You just have to hope that everything goes swimmingly for your guys over the next 16 months, and thus you're perfectly positioned to defy history. Good luck!

  3. Nick, yes, it is 16 months before any votes are taken, and lots of things could happen. For example, because the GQP has made vaccinations a political litmus test, we may not be able to control COVID, and the new variants will result in a major wave of infections again. That could hurt Biden. Or the border gets worse. Or the violence in cities like Portland does not subside. Or there's a major foreign policy debacle.

    Of course, COVID could get crushed despite Red State obstructionism, the stock market could continue to soar, unemployment could continue to drop and wages rise, inflation steadies, and there's neither a domestic scandal nor an international mess. We just don't know.

    But I do know two things. First, Trump's base is smaller than last November and will be smaller still next November. Second, history is not destiny. The party in power has twice picked up House seats in the midterms.

    If the GQP were to start to rally around a DeSantis before next November, the GQP's chances likely would be better because he'd have to talk about his ideas going forth, not whine about losing an election (badly). But, so long as Trump is the party leader (he got 70% in CPAC's straw poll), the GQP can't advance.

    By the way, and this is from my sources in the political media, if Biden doesn't run, Kamala is not being anointed. Biden won't abandon Kamala as a VP (he's disappointed in her lack of performance), but will back Buttigieg for President in 2024 (the two are very close -- like father/son close). Buttigieg would likely pick the new Florida Senator, Val Demmings, as VP. But, right now, Biden is planning to run in 2024.

  4. I agree that Trump is an albatross around the GOP's neck, to a point. It's hard to know how the Trump effect will play out in a midterm election, though, when he's a private citizen and not a sitting president. We're in uncharted waters there.

    You're right, too, that Kamala isn't an inevitability, as some people suggest. Nor is Buttigieg. Anyone could be the Dem nominee in 2024.

    If Val Demmings beats Marco Rubio, though, I'll eat my hat!