Friends, it's the Associated Press versus Donald Trump, and with any luck not only will this battle royal take down the A.P. but the whole legacy media establishment too. I'm licking my chops in anticipation! Read all about it in my latest article:
https://townhall.com/columnists/nicholaswaddy/2025/02/19/get-out-and-stay-out-legacy-media-n2652464
The animosity between the U.S. and Ukraine is growing as the Trump Administration reaches out to Russia in an effort to bring an end to the fighting. If Ukraine isn't careful, America will cut it off and let it fend for itself, which of course it could if the Europeans put their money, and more importantly their troops, where their mouths are. That'll be the day, huh?
Dr. Waddy from Jack : THis is a terribly poignant time. Who could blame any Ukrainian leader for seizing on an apparent opportunity to enjoy the same exceedingly good fortune accruing to nearby Poland? That is: proven protection from Russia itself!
ReplyDeleteZelensky has been a personally brave leader of Ukraine's astonishing repulse of Russia's intended conquest. But grim reality has risen to the fore: Russia will react to any Ukrainian accession to Nato with all the power it thinks necessary to prevent this, to them, unendurable affront and decisive national security threat. There is no way to dissuade Russia from this.
So the proven guarantee of Nato protection is sadly unavailable to Ukraine. Zelensky must come to grim terms with this sad reality. President Trump in his crude sometimes ad hominem fashion is expressing his disapproval of Zelensky led resistance from Ukraine to a peace agreement which CANNOT include Nato membership for Ukraine. Pres. Trump, with U.S. interests his prime consideration, must take this stand.
We are shamefully in debt to Ukraine for foolishly encouraging Ukraine to hope for such deliverance from the terrible and historically proven threat of Great Russian oppression. I hope our side in the negotiations will promise to make amends to Ukraine, in help rebuilding and in such support against future invasion which can be negotiated with Russia.
Trump is lying about Ukraine to try and convince his MAGA followers that Ukraine should be lucky with what it gets. Given so many of his followers don't care -- or can't discern -- that Trump is engaging in a disinformation campaign regarding the peace process, he'll get some significant support. But, he also underestimates Ukraine's will regarding its holding on to their country.
ReplyDeleteThe good news is that ever since the CBS poll came out demonstrating that Trump had a 53-47 approval v. disapproval rating, four poll since then show Trump underwater (disapproval > approval). That polling does not include the two gigantic whoppers of Trump lying that Ukraine started the war with Russia, and that Zelenskyy has a 4% approval rating (his actual rating is 57%). Hopefully the decline in his approval ratings will wake up his enablers in Congress.
Rod
Dr. Waddy from Jack: Before Patel's welcome confirmation today I was watching on Fox some of the oh so righteous lamentations expressed by Dems. "He's very partisan and FBI Director is an office which demands no partisanship!" What unalloyed HUMBUG on their amoral parts, the poor humbled dears!! They deserve every bit of the powerlessness they "feel" now. They couldn't stop one of DJT's Cabinet nominees unless we consider his first DOJ nominee, who withdrew. And that office turned out fine in the hands of hombre Pam Bondi. America is flying high and its glorious!
ReplyDeleteDr. Waddy from Jack: I read your article; its very well taken. I fully agree: bring it on!!! These people have been asking for this beyond forever and I hope its consequences reach into their shamefully compromised journalism schools, which are the fount of so many of these marxist, post Watergate two generations removed automatons. (I mean, being an idealistic journalism student and being given to understand that if you do not cleave to the party's unrelenting stance, you have no future in a profession for the entry to which you have already devoted much cash and time. . . .?)
ReplyDeleteDr. Waddy from Jack: We cannot deny Russia's IMMENSELY destructive power, should it ever
ReplyDeletechoose to use it to the full. It cannot BUT be a prime consideration for us even though the U. S. and perhaps China are the only countries with the ability to face it down but always with the harrowing risk that Russia might nonetheless strike. We cannot risk that except for the most profound of national security threats and Ukraine's integrity does not satisfy that requirement. We already have the probably decisive power of a Nato recently greatly enhanced by the addition of the hard fighting Swedes and Finns, to deter any probably unlikely Russian advance. Again, I think Russia seeks only security, prosperity and deference.
And again, again, I hold we owe Ukraine recompense for recklessly encouraging their dream of being invulnerable to savage Great Russian oppression through Nato membership. Let us do the decent thing: help them rebuild and help them negotiate their relative independence (nothing more is possible ) from Russia with our support as far as grim reality allows it.
Dr. Waddy from Jack: I think Rod often makes creditable use of empirical evidence but I am as perverse as to dismiss anything CBS says. How terribly they have degraded since through the bizarre far left interlude we have endured since the '60s, they have been an enthusiastic participant in its onslaught on our civilization!
ReplyDeleteJack, I couldn't agree more that we owe Ukraine an apology and a heck of a lot of aid, when this craziness subsides.
ReplyDeleteRod, you're right that Trump's average job approval/disapproval numbers are coming close to parity. That's a pity, but hardly surprising, given the media campaign against him. Until his own core supporters start jumping ship, however, I suspect he won't be deterred from doing what he feels is right. Bear in mind also that many of these polls are LOW QUALITY, Dem-biased polls, as election after election continues to demonstrate.
Russia might have considered further military adventures had its invasion of Ukraine gone better. I suspect they've learned their lesson and then some!
Nick, do you have any evidence that the polls are LOW QUALITY? I have taught polling for over 20 years, so if you have a source that indicates that they are low quality, I would like to know what it is. Most polls have a history of leaning slightly (around one point) Dem (such as CNN) and those leaning slightly Rep (Rasmussen). Many are close to zero in their leaning - such as Emerson College whose director is a former student of mine. But, I don't have any literature that has done a thorough analysis of the quality of the polls that have delivered Trump's recent declining numbers. Just stating that you FEEL a poll is of low quality makes it one.
ReplyDeleteRod
Dr. Waddy from Jack: It is time for CBS to pay for its unrelenting negativism on matters critical to our country, starting with its notorious misrepresentation of the Tet Offensive in Vietnam as a commie victory. This of course gave great heart to N. Vietnam' s totalitarian regime both for its objective error but mostly for the cynicism toward the war effort against world communism which it tragically engendered in America. CBS is still of that mind, determined to work US defeat , degradation and forced "fundamental transformation". They should be comprehensively shunned !
ReplyDeleteJack, your characterization of CBS portraying the Tet Offensive as "a commie victory" is a lie. Cronkite was there for the time of the Tet Offensive and declared that the war had become a stalemate -- which was true. The resistance in the U.S., against the war grew because more and more citizens discovered the government had been lying about the progress of the war.
DeleteIn no way is CBS working for a U.S. defeat. This administration is a clown show, and CBS (and other networks) are calling them out.
Rod
Zelenskyy's offer to immediately step down if peace and NATO acceptance is granted comes at a time when it seems fair to be suspicious of his motives.
ReplyDeleteI'd be interested to know what you all might think his true intent might be given:
- Recent statements by Trump
- Ukraine's dwindling financial support
- The unlikelihood of NATO membership
- His term technically being over since last year
Zelenskyy is digging in. Trump called him a dictator. Dictators don't resign. Ukraine's dwindling financial support may end up being filled by the EU as the U.S. is abandoning NATO. The more European countries contribute, the more that they will buy into Ukraine having NATO membership. Trump may block that, but the Dem winner in 2028 will reverse that. Ukraine will be a NATO member by 2030. Finally, the Ukraine constitution bars an election during a time of martial law, which Ukraine currently is under.
ReplyDeleteRod
Rod, I would refer you to this fine RCP piece about the accuracy of polls in 2024. A lot of media polls that still get placed in these averages have a long history of overstating Dem support. I would take Rasmussen or Trafalgar over ABC, CBS, or NBC any day.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.realclearpolitics.com/video/2024/11/21/rcp_average_continues_to_be_the_most_accurate_in_the_industry_because_we_dont_weight_polls.html
You heard it here first, folks: Rod has Ukraine in NATO once the stain of Trumpism has been scrubbed out of the West. Personally, I think it's a lot more likely that NATO will shrink, or cease to exist, than that it will expand into Ukraine.
Richie, I would say Zelensky's offer to resign was completely unserious. It's predicated on Ukrainian membership in NATO, which is a non-starter for Russia, and seemingly for Trump too. Now, Zelensky's ouster may end up being part of the "deal" that ends the war, and I would argue it might well be in the interests of long-term reconciliation between Ukraine and Russia. Zelensky, though, will no doubt land on his feet and will be feted by Western hawks until the end of time.
Nick, the RCP piece is more opinion piece than detailed analysis. Yes, Rasmussen and Trafalgar did fine in 2016 and 2024, but were off in 2018, 2020, and 2022 (the supposed red wave). In addition, the oversampling of Dems in polls like CNN are match by oversampling of GOP in Rasmussen.
ReplyDeleteThe one part of the article I did agree with is the use of weighting in polls. The guiding principle of polls and the statistics with which you analyze them is to have random selection of participants. When you conduct your poll, get your results from your random sample, then weight certain characteristics of the sample, you are violating the principles of probability that are the foundation of your statistical tests. I have real troubles with that.
Rod
Thanks, Rod. I agree: it's a strength of the RCP averages that they let the errors of various pollsters cancel one another out. I take your point that no pollster is spot on in every race -- another good reason to average ALL the polls. The average usually is pretty close to being accurate. Is there a polling aggregator you think is better than RCP?
ReplyDelete