Friends, way back in 1943 the biggest tank battle of all time was fought in the Kursk region of Russia, as the Soviets defeated the Germans and solidified the Allies' increasingly irresistible momentum in WWII. Now, as we speak, the Ukrainians have advanced 30-35 kilometers into the Kursk region in a bold move designed to put their Russian adversaries on their back foot (or feet, as the case may be). It's working, too: Russia has been flummoxed by the lightning offensive. This puts the West in a bind. We've told our Ukrainian clients all along that they can defend their homeland all they like, but they shouldn't escalate the war by attacking deep into Russia -- and they certainly shouldn't use our weapons and training and intel and money to do it. Well, so much for those caveats! Time and again, the West has said "To heck with prudence!" and allowed the Ukrainians to cross Russia's red lines. How will this story end? Will the Russians gird themselves and neutralize the offensive, using only conventional means? That's very possible. Will the Russians reply instead with some form of escalation of their own -- up to and including the use of nuclear weapons? That's possible too, especially if the Ukrainian spearhead continues to plunge deeper into Mother Russia. Will any of this change the ultimate outcome of the war? Your guess is as good as mine... One thing is for sure: the Russian military has proven itself to be far less capable than most of us assumed before hostilities commenced. Putin and his generals ought to be ashamed of their country's palpable weakness, and one assumes they're hard at work trying to correct it.
https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cql365ld002o
https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c9qgwvjj9d1o
In other news, we will definitely get a rhetorical clash between J.D. Vance and Tim Walz -- that is to say, there's a Vice-Presidential debate a-brewin'! Good. That should be fun to watch.
https://apnews.com/article/vice-presidential-debate-walz-vance-60650c0480e132342880c35a1d29f539
And, in a development of potentially decisive importance in November, the appeal of third party candidates seems to be waning, and RFK, Jr., in particular, seems to be questioning the wisdom of continuing with his presidential campaign. As someone who has thought seriously about voting for Kennedy, I find his dithering quite off-putting. I mean, can he really be surprised by the fact that he's not likely to be the next president? If he had a definite and substantial reason for running for president in the first place, then what's changed to make him willing to trade a measly government job for his presidential ambitions? Be all this as it may, I think the Dems are pretty dumb to frisk aside his entreaties. In my view, Biden could have neutralized Kennedy long, long ago, simply by treating him with a little respect. Now, Kamala could win Kennedy's endorsement, and settle a schism on the Left, simply by promising RFK, Jr. a minor position in her administration (which she might or might not give him, in the final analysis). Why not bite the bullet? If I were Trump, by contrast, I would probably be willing to make common cause with Kennedy, although it frankly isn't clear whether Kennedy's endorsement of Trump, or the continuation of his campaign, with a special emphasis on attracting the votes of progressives and young people, would be more helpful to Trump's chances. If you want my opinion, words of support from RFK, Jr. aren't likely to be worth a great deal. People would see a Kennedy endorsement as a cynical move -- which it would be. Dividing up the electoral pie by keeping as many viable third party candidates in the race as possible, on the other hand, has real appeal for a candidate like Trump, who isn't liked by most voters, and who thus isn't likely to win 50% of the vote. Kennedy is looking increasingly like the embodiment of ambivalence, rather like Ross Perot back in 1992, but that doesn't mean he still can't have a crucial impact on the outcome. Sad to say, but so many of the dynamics of this race, and in many ways the determinants of the fate of our nation, come down to personal vanity and ego -- of Trump, of Biden, of Harris, and of Kennedy. What a farce democracy can turn out to be at times. Oy vey!
https://www.semafor.com/article/08/13/2024/third-parties-were-having-a-moment-then-kamala-harris-showed-up
https://news.yahoo.com/news/rfk-jr-reached-harris-campaign-012142563.html
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