Friends, if you're like most people who read this blog, you view Joseph R. Biden as something of a walking joke -- a senile has-been who couldn't govern his way out of a wet paper bag. Well, that may be so, but my latest article argues that, if you want Trump to prevail in November, you might want to root for ole Sleepy Joe in the first presidential debate on June 27th. Why on Earth would I do that, you ask? Read on and find out...
Run, Sleepy Joe, Run!
With
the first and presumptively most important presidential debate coming
up in less than two weeks, many Republicans and conservatives are
exultant. Their candidate, Donald Trump, has enjoyed a consistent if
small lead in the polls, especially in those that most accurately
reflect the true nature of the race – by allowing voters to choose
between Trump, Biden, Kennedy, West, and Stein. Trump's advantage
hasn't been dented by a wide-ranging campaign of lawfare, up to and
including his recent felony convictions in New York City. Many
Trumpers expect the first debate to consolidate Trump's dominance –
mainly because they take it for granted that Biden's senility
will be laid bare. From that point on, they assume, Trump will be on
a secure glidepath to a second term.
Much
of this logic is sound, but the last part – the idea that a poor
debate performance by Biden will cement Trump's status as the
frontrunner – is dangerously naive. Trump is currently ahead, and
has been ahead more or less since the campaign began, but this
advantage, if one digs deeply into polling data, does not necessarily
reflect any particular strength on Trump's part. His favorable
ratings,
and the percentage of Americans who say they will vote for him, are
not significantly changed from 2020, when he lost by more than four
points. At this same point in the race in 2020,
in the RealClearPolitics average of head-to-head polls, Trump was
receiving around 42% of the vote. Today, he is receiving roughly
45%.
That's a significant difference, but hardly an earth-shattering one.
Joe Biden, by contrast, was receiving 50% of the vote in 2020, versus
less than 45% now. In a five-way race, Biden currently receives under
40% –
an extraordinarily weak performance for a sitting president. The
lesson here is that Trump's dominance at this stage of the race is
mostly a factor of Biden's unpopularity, and the divided field of
candidates, rather than Trump's own appeal.
But
why, then, would a flawed debate performance by Joe Biden not serve
to improve Trump's prospects of victory still further? That's simple:
because Trump's chances of victory rely on the assumption that his
main opponent is, and will be, Joe Biden. While it would be
difficult, and maybe even excruciating, for Democrats to pull the
plug on Biden's reelection bid and choose another candidate, it is
far from impossible, especially before the nomination has been
officially bestowed on Biden at the Democratic
National Convention
in Chicago in August. A different Democratic candidate, needless to
say, would upend the presidential race entirely, and this would
threaten Trump's primacy by injecting new blood into the contest. No
one can say whether the Democrats could find themselves a dream
candidate, but at the very least they could find one who wasn't
burdened by all of Joe Biden's baggage, and who wasn't obliged to
defend the status quo,
which so many Americans find repugnant.
If, therefore,
Trump's likelihood of winning in 2024 depends on Democrats sticking
to their guns and following Joe Biden like lemmings over the abyss,
then the best way to ensure that they do so is to hope that Biden
puts in a performance in the first debate that will be
judged...satisfactory. That debate is, and will be seen as, the
greatest and most important test of Biden's political viability
before the Democratic National Convention. If he passes it, he will
most definitely be the Democrats' nominee. If he trips up modestly,
Democrats will probably still be stuck with him. If, however, he
crashes and burns, as so many Republicans and conservatives seem to
expect he will, and hope he will, then it would be shocking if
Democratic Party elders, along with members of the Biden family, did
not take Sleepy Joe aside and explain to him that the time to retire
gracefully is now. And, in that case, the modest lead that Trump has
built – over one of the least popular presidents in modern history
– could evaporate overnight.
Elementary
political logic dictates that the candidate who is ahead in any race
should do everything in his power to ensure that the dynamics that
helped to craft his advantage should be left as undisturbed as
possible, and he should hope that nothing dramatic or even
interesting happens in the course of the campaign to change voters'
minds. A mediocre debate performance by both candidates on June 27th,
or a debate that surprises and excites no one, would be entirely to
Trump's advantage. Thus, while it may appear highly ironic, those
Americans who sincerely wish for a second Trump term would be
well-advised to hope and pray for a reasonably solid debate
performance by none other than Joe Biden. Such a result would keep
Biden's struggling campaign on life support – but decidedly alive –
and that is exactly where Republicans, conservatives, and Trumpers
should want it.
Dr.
Nicholas L. Waddy is an Associate Professor of History at SUNY Alfred
and blogs at: www.waddyisright.com.
He appears on the Newsmaker Show on WLEA 1480/106.9.
And here it is at Townhall:
https://townhall.com/columnists/nicholaswaddy/2024/06/14/run-sleepy-joe-run-n2640460