Tuesday, August 27, 2019

Recession? What Recession?

Friends, many of you are wondering whether we're going to have a recession.  There's been a lot of talk in the mainstream media about that possibility, and clearly world leaders at the G-7 summit were concerned about blowback from the U.S.-China trade war.  Fair enough.  The fact of the matter is, however, that, as of now, there is no recession.  The economy continues to grow, and consumer sentiment is strong.  Witness the latest figures:

Frankly, I'm impressed by how resilient that American people have been, and the American economy has been, in the face of the media's trash-talking, and of the very real economic dislocations caused by our ongoing trade war.  The truth, though, is that the American economy is VAST, and trade with China, although it's important, is far from the whole enchilada.  In addition, trade with China just hasn't been affected that much by tariffs.  Americans have continued to buy Chinese-made goods, despite higher prices.  No doubt the fact that Americans have jobs, their wages are going up, their taxes have gone down, etc. all combine to explain why consumers have shrugged off our trade war.

The upshot?  The ingredients for a slowdown, even a recession, are out there.  They always are!  Economics is an art more than it's a science.  Economists might find that insulting, but it's a fact: no one has a crystal ball.  Nonetheless, there is a lot of dynamism in our economy, and a natural, irresistible tendency for America's capitalist engine to hum along in growth mode, and only exceptionally adverse circumstances can knock us off stride.  So far, those factors just aren't in place.

Sorry, lefties, but the recession you've been pining for isn't here yet, and there's a strong probability that it won't arrive in time to rescue your sorry excuse for a candidate in 2020.  Better luck next time!

1 comment:

  1. Dr. Waddy: That the left and the MSM would seek to bring about a recession by flying in the face of facts is very plausible. They have long since proven themselves as committed to getting their way as to be capable of such ruthless and reckless misleadership.