Friends, I'd like to recommend this fine article, which comes to us courtesy of FoxNews. Frankly, I think some of it is based on wishful thinking, but the core argument is sound: the appearance of a Democratic advantage leading up to the 2018 mid-term elections could easily be deceptive. In addition, many public polls are biased in favor of Democrats, and no one should discount the level of mobilization (and expenditure) that Republicans will achieve by the Fall. We Republicans and conservatives should take very seriously the challenge that energized Trump-haters represent -- and counter them accordingly. I firmly believe that, if we keep our eyes on the ball, we can keep the House AND the Senate in 2018, and, if we do, the circular firing squad that arises in the Democratic Party will be a thing of beauty! Let's make it happen, shall we?
http://www.foxnews.com/opinion/2018/02/10/democrats-ought-to-worry-about-midterm-elections.html
Dr. Waddy, are these the same polls that stated now President Trump would never get elected ? If this DACA issue doesn't get fixed/settled, I think one might find a big turnover on both sides. I'm interested to hear what you think about that.
ReplyDeleteGreat point, Linda. The pollsters have been wrong before, and they are almost always wrong in the Democrats' favor (although Roy Moore was an outlier). The article's historical perspective on just how wrong the polls have been on the "generic ballot" is really telling. As for DACA, my guess is that the people who believe the media spin on "immigrants" already think Trump is Satan, so they're lost to us forever. In my opinion, most people don't care about this issue all that much. I therefore don't see it determining the outcome in the mid-terms. Assuming the DACA fix doesn't happen by the deadline, my guess would be that Trump will not deport very many. Perhaps just enough to keep the Democrats negotiating. I suspect, in the end, there will be a deal. The question is...what will Democrats agree to give up? Will they give us the wall? Will they agree to major changes to legal immigration? With only slight leverage, I'm not sure they have much choice. They could, I suppose, refuse to concede anything, let DACA expire, and dare Trump to start deporting the Dreamers, but that would be politically risky. I see them taking the easy way out.
ReplyDeleteDr. Waddy: My willful computer refused to let me read the article; it also erased a post I was about to publish so its being a real pill today. It knows I don't like it and so, like a horse, it does me dirt. Nonetheless your intro proposes a "consummation DEVOUTLY to be wished". My delayed post recklessly speculats on another alternative but mostly in jest. Linda M. Conley: Your concern is very well taken. If Trump were seen by his base to have reneged on perhaps his most important promise, he could expose himself to what sank BushI. I think he'll probably avoid that mistake but. . .
ReplyDeleteYes, Trump certainly can't afford to alienate his base, but I see no danger of that on immigration. Politically, I think the biggest test is the wall. If Trump gets a wall, or even something resembling a wall, and if illegal immigration rates decline (which they already have), I suspect Trump's base will be happy.
ReplyDeleteDr. Waddy: you're right, the wall is the key; that WAS the essential pledge.
ReplyDeleteYes, I'd say it was the cornerstone of his campaign. And all in all it's not a promise difficult to keep: throw one brick on top of another brick, and -- presto! -- Trump is vindicated!
ReplyDelete