Friends, you might be forgiven for arching your copious Brezhnevian eyebrows at signals that the U.S. and Iran are close to a deal to end the conflict between them... I mean, we've heard all this before. However, the terms of the deal are intriguing: they offer Iran a way back into the good graces of the whole world, including the global financial system, if it gives up its enriched uranium and scales back its support of terrorists and thugs throughout the region. Basically, the rewards provided to Iran would be contingent on good behavior. Okay, fair enough, but the problem is that the main reward that Iran is looking for is an end to military strikes and a resumption of its access to world oil markets, both of which it would receive immediately in return for the mere promise of good citizenship going forward. On the other hand, the U.S. blockade and/or bombings could resume at our discretion as well. Is it a good deal? That's hard to say. It depends on how serious Iran is about changing its behavior. Certainly, I have no objection to reducing sanctions on the regime if it rachets down its beastliness. All in all, I'd say this approach might be worth a try, but we should be watchful and skeptical from the very start.
https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c39y02x98k8o
In other news, as expected, Elon Musk is now the world's first trillionaire. Kudos to you, Elon! The irony, as I see it, is that, while all the excitement now focuses on Musk's ventures with electric cars, A.I., and rocketry, his stewardship of Twitter/X is probably the most powerful lever he has to influence modern life -- and, if I may say so, he has utilized that leverage brilliantly in order to protect Western Civilization and human freedom, in the face of blistering attacks from the global establishment. Will he get us to the Moon and to Mars, as promised? It would not surprise me if he did, but he has already gotten us back to a place where we have genuine pluralism in our politics and our discourse, and that's worth well over $1 trillion, in my book!!!
Dr. Waddy from Jack: My guess is that the present Iranian regime , whosoever personifies it, is very serious about changing its behavior: it is resolved to make every effort NOT to change it beyond a presently unavoidable tactical retreat. Sincere cooperation with the unbelieving Zionist outlanders is utterly unthinkable; it will be hard enough to feign it for a time.
ReplyDeleteI'm certain that our President and VP fully expect such disingenuous resolution on the part of a proven utterly untrustworthy Iranian leadership. Apparently there will be no remission of frozen Iranian assets until requirements such as confirmable destruction of their store of close to weapons grade uranium and of their facilities for restoring it. As for extended "promises " to refrain from funding terrorism: nobody in their right mind would trust them on that. It will require unrelenting surveillance and immediate overwhelming reaction on the part of the US and Israel to stifle any revanchism on that and on anything else of continuing cooperation required of this insanely vindictive neo medieval leadership.
But there is much hope for the infidel haters of Teheran and it comes chiefly from the "American" DSA/Dem far left. It has proven to radical Islam its bonafides in hating America and Jews. Of course the former loathes these traitorous dreamers for their social and cultural "depravity" but is , as revolutionaries so often have been, grudgingly willing to form a temporary "united front" with them ( like the Chinese commies and their "united front" with the Nationalists) This is nothing new; after the first World Trade Center attack the courageous David Horowitz wrote his well documented book Unholy Alliance: Radical Islam and the American Left, in which this grotesquely counterintuitive relationship was described.
By Jan.20, 2029 the US could inaugurate a DSA/Dem administration which has proven with its aid and comfort to Iran in the present war that it would make haste to relieve Iran of all supervision or restraint. The "American" far left's ideological compulsion to do so would be much magnified by its long suppressed determination to expunge all traces of President Trump's heresy.
For a regime which enthusiastically reprises the 7th Century AD it is probably very plausible to bide its time until that day. Should the likes of Obama and Biden or worse, maybe MUCH worse, be in the White House they would understandably assume they would be dealing again with a pusillanimous chump and would make haste to resume their murderous vindictive hostility to Israel and America. And this time they would act to mitigate the vulnerability of their nuclear arsenal, as they may well have done already.
RAY TO JACK
DeleteThanks for calling attention to Horowitz. His writings are timely, to say the least.
Dr. Waddy from Jack: I agree with your reaction to this tentative "deal".
ReplyDeletePresident Reagan once said of US-Soviet agreements: 'trust but verify".I would suggest that President Trump's credo in this setting should be unapologetically and frankly expressed as: " Deserved distrust and unrelenting verification".
To me , this tentative agreement appears to be a product of well thought out use of military power and realistic ,canny diplomacy. If it is followed through, as I trust it would be by this President, it could make a monumental difference in the well being of the Middle East and consequent incalculable benefit to the world. For now , willingness on our part to use force and the grudging realization of it by this unsustainably atavistic and thoroughly hate filled Iranian throwback is all.
Dr. Waddy from Jack: I completely agree with your comments on Musk. He is an unapologetic and eloquent exemplar of the free enterprise/democracy combination which assures invaluable American material well being and freedom. And his success tellingly gainsays the already long since historically disproven Marxist principles cynically advanced by DSA ideologues in their present surge.
ReplyDeleteRay from Jack: I read Devin Sper's essay The Nazi Roots of Palestinian Nationalism. He supports the concept expressed in the title quite plausibly. His assertion of the key role of Haj Amin Al Husseini and his relative and avatar Yasser Arafat is revealing and, again, supportable. Criticism of Sper's article by "academics " is described as having mostly rejected Sper's reasoning. It holds that more recent factors account for Palestinian nationalism. Of course the current western academy is not to be trusted for objectivity in this.
ReplyDeleteGood point: Iran may feel that all it has to do is outlast Trump and Netanyahu, and it can go back to business as usual, and maybe acquire a nuke or two in the bargain. And it may be right. There's been little consistency in our Iran policy, 1979-present. The main thing Iran needs, now and always, is access to world oil markets, and Trump appears ready to let them have it again. Once they have that, they can start rebuilding their capabilities, slowly but surely.
ReplyDeleteThen again, I don't want to sound too pessimistic. Those capabilities have been dealt a very severe setback by our bombing and our blockade. And Iran MIGHT be ready to concede that pursuing nukes just isn't smart anymore, given the ferocity of the U.S./Israeli response. If the mullahs are rational, that's the line I would expect them to take. That's a big "if"!
Dr. Waddy from Jack: President Trump will be the Commander in Chief of our forces and the fount of our foreign policy approx. 2.5 more years. So he has time for alot of verification and corrective action should it reveal Iranian misconduct. I don't anticipate our President losing his resolve on this vital issue. He's a stone hombre of a sort the presumptuous mullahs have not had to deal with in our White House. Together with equally resolved Israel we can give the Iranian regime no choice but to "endure the unendurable". Thems the breaks when you threaten 21st century civilization with medieval vindictiveness.
ReplyDeleteJack, I give the substance of our truce (an open Strait and no blockade) a 50/50 chance of holding until November. By contrast, I'd say our chances of getting our mitts on that enriched uranium are considerably lower...as are Iran's chances of getting sanctions relief.
ReplyDelete