Friends, you may have noticed that Iran launched, out of the blue, several drones at ships traversing the Strait of Hormuz. We struck some of their drone and radar infrastructure in response. What was interesting was the global response: no one cared. Oil prices didn't spike, and traffic through the Strait continued as before. Hmmmmmmm. It seems that both the U.S. and Iran assume that the deal will hold, despite this minor setback. What's more, insurance companies didn't immediately demand that all ships sailing through the Strait turn around and find safer waters. What this suggests to me is that the world is officially done with Iranian extortion and piracy. We kinda need that oil, in short, so we're gonna get it -- drones be damned!!! Now, of course this is precisely how we should have reacted to Iranian attacks from the start. They never posed a significant threat to tankers and cargo ships, and they never should have been permitted to hold the world (economy) hostage. Be that as it may, we've finally reached a point where Iran's leverage, which was always mostly imaginary, is being discounted. This bodes well for our ability to hold Iran to account and force them to make serious concessions at the bargaining table. It also bodes well, I hasten to add, for gas prices and GOP prospects in the midterms... One final observation: it's fairly likely that these drone attacks were not a matter of state policy so much as a desperate gambit by dissident, hardline factions within the Iranian regime. No doubt some Islamist fanatics don't like the terms of this deal, and they would like to sabotage it. Recent events suggest that doing so will be harder than the nutjobs might have thought. Good!
https://truthsocial.com/@realDonaldTrump/posts/116817203281419093
Agreed on all fronts!
ReplyDeleteBut I wonder if the muted global reaction (stable oil prices, continued shipping) is not in confidence at adherence to the MOU will hold, but a wink and not that it won't!
Is it possible our new best buds in the region may welcome Iran's impotent strikes? Each U.S. response continues the degradation of Iran's drone/radar capabilities, reducing their threat. Though the MOU keeps pressure on Tehran to negotiate further it will highlight their incompetence and deception.
So, might it be reasonable to wonder if the MOU was designed intentionally NOT to hold? But, instead continue US involvement in managing an out of control, proxy propping state.
* that should be "wink and a nod" to loosely steal English and Monty Python colloquialisms.. :)
DeleteDr. Waddy and Richie et al: I think yours are both plausible views. Alot of tactical and diplomatic games are being played and Iran is at an insurmountable disadvantage I'd suggest is as hopeless as that which Japan faced in '45. But just imagine how intransigent Iran would have been if they had had nukes, even though "physical" use of them would have assured their immolation. They are the definition of fanaticism exceeding all reason.
ReplyDeleteThis is a fluid situation which, I think , nonetheless portends the destruction of the Iranian threat to 21st century civilization. President Trump's fundamental resolve appears to be unrelenting and the ever increasing pressure on Iran is bound to become unendurable for them.
I'm reading a history of Israel. Egyptian demagogue Nasser is quoted shortly before the '67 whomping he got from the Israeli Air Force : " We are going to destroy Israel. Those who came there from other countries will be repatriated to those countries; those Jews native to Palestine will not survive ." He actually meant that and tried his utmost to carry it through. The mullahs are likewise devoted. Their inhumanity is immeasurable and utterly intolerable even in this still hard world.
Just as heartless Japanese aggression had to be finally defeated , so it goes for an Iranian regime civilization cannot suffer to persist in its fantastic intentions.
RAY TO JACK
DeleteAnd don't forget heartless German aggression.
RAY TO JACK
ReplyDeleteAnd as the 21st Century begins its 26th year "birth pangs", it's more of the same: endless wars and endless enemies.
Ray from Jack: Ditto on the Nazis. The Japanese "just" wanted East and Southeast Asia, including China, and with the Western Pacific as their buffer. The Boche wanted the world. It is possible to identify protracted periods of peace like the Pax Romana and the Pax Brittannica. They were of course assured by the possession of overwhelming force. The 20th century saw sincere efforts to outlaw or anathematize war but for now at least, humanity just doesn't have it in them. The closest we've come is in refraining from nuclear war after 1945. Again , well managed power, this time in the hands of the civilized US and then with the advent of ICBMs and sub launched missiles, together with the indescribable destructiveness of thermonuclear monsters;POWER that is , is the indispensable key, given human nature.
ReplyDeleteDr. Waddy from Jack: News from the trenches today is fairly good. First, Karolyn Leavitt is back as White House Press Secretary and has unapologetically referred to the DSA as communists. Good for her and good for her boss!
ReplyDeleteCan anyone credibly doubt that if the DSA had the power today they would declare The People' s Republic of Politically Correct Justice or some such euphemism. No more defunding the police , mind you. There would be plenty of job opportunities for their kind of police, a new breed dedicated to enforcing dictatorship on all proscribed classes, such as the law abiding and the successful.
I'm glad the President and Ms. Leavitt are calling them just what they are. Of course the word communist needs no definition or elaboration. Their history in power conclusively defines and condemns them.
PM Churchill, upon assuming his office, spoke the UNTHINKABLE to a largely despairing Parliament and nation: ". . . you ask, what is our objective. . . VICTORY!"
This must also be America's clarion call as we stand against an existential threat by a totalitarian creed advanced by nominal Americans with no English Channel to cross. They are here already and daily becoming more and more frank about their communist intentions. Where they have gained policy making power they have promoted disingenuous and counterintuitive policies meant to create the perception of dissension and dysfunction which is the necessary prerequisite to their rise to dictatorship. Our anarchic blue cities help to show that it is working.
Dr. Waddy from Jack: My bad: Churchill said . . . you ask, what is our aim . . . VICTORY. . .
ReplyDeleteRichie, that's an interesting thought. I think parts of the MOU were almost certainly for show. Iran isn't going to stop funding its proxies, and the world sure ain't giving it $300 billion. As for the nukes, time will tell. Possibly the real effect of the MOU is to give the world (and the insurance companies) a fig leaf to hide behind, so they can start up those tankers again. Has the danger REALLY passed? No, but we can all pretend it has. Maybe that's enough. If a side effect is the end of Iran's leverage over us and the world, I'm all for it!
ReplyDeleteJack, I'm not sure I see the Iranian regime being "finally defeated" anytime soon. Letting them sell unlimited amounts of oil on the world market seems like an odd way to make that happen. But yes, their capacities are degraded and they won't be nuking anyone soon.
Ray/Jack, I wouldn't be too despondent about mankind's penchant for violent conflict. Rates of violent crime continue to plummet here, and actually the post-WWII period has been one of mankind's most peaceable. The post-Cold War period even more so. The recent conflict with Iran is very small potatoes, in the grand scheme of things.
Dr. Waddy from Jack: The Iranian regime knows the American Presidential season is nigh and brings with it the possibility of another guiltily "tolerant" Administration for the irresolute heretics. At least it will afford them the benefit of a major party using the campaign to trumpet its convictions that the war is a failure. And the prolix campaign will give them plenty more time for disingenuous delay. All the better for their aid and comfort. Yet again DJT faces a harrowing test but he has so often demonstrated his durability that I think he has more astonishing things in store for us.
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