Saturday, January 16, 2021

The Great American Realignment


Friends, remember the days when corporate America was broadly supportive of the GOP, and Republicans, in turn, were watching out for corporate interests?  Well, as our economic elite aligns itself more and more with the Democrats and with "wokeness", they are cutting ties with the GOP, and nothing has accelerated that process more than the recent "insurrection" at the U.S. Capitol.  Many Republicans who voted to contest the results of the electoral college have seen corporate bigwigs castigate them and yank their donations.  As this article points out, what this will do is encourage the Republican Party to move even more aggressively in a populist, and arguably therefore a Trumpian, direction.  Corporate America may just have cut off its nose to spite its face, moreover.  It may soon find that it has no influence and a very poor relationship with a party that, history suggests, could someday soon be once again in the majority in the House and the Senate.  At that point, presumably, many CEOs would recalibrate their moral sense as needed!


Suggestions that Republican Senators and Congressmen who introduced, and voted to sustain, objections to the electoral college results on Jan. 6th were "insurrectionists" or "traitors" are deeply offensive, at least to me.  Exercising your right of free speech to criticize how an election was conducted IS NOT seditious or un-American.  It certainly isn't when Democrats do it!  Likewise, casting a vote on the House or Senate floor that Democrats find disagreeable is, believe it or not, still permitted under our Constitution.  Talk about removing various Republicans in Congress for their alleged "role" in the storming of the Capitol is therefore ridiculous.  Just because you share a political goal with someone DOES NOT make you guilty of whatever crimes that someone may commit in attempting to achieve that goal.  Is every Democrat guilty of shooting Steve Scalise, for instance?  That's the sort of idiocy that the Left is pushing these days, and I'm having none of it! 

Liz Cheney continues to experience considerable blowback from her vote in favor of impeachment.  Good!  I hope she gets knocked down a peg.


Among the Dems' highest priorities will be to put illegal aliens on a pathway to citizenship, and simultaneously to increase levels of legal immigration.  They can do both, to a point, with executive action alone, but fundamental changes would take legislation.  Expect a bitter battle in both houses over any such bill. 

Finally, apropos Ms. Cheney's plight, there's little sign that Donald Trump's sway over the Republican Party has been lessened by recent events.  Quite the contrary.  What remains to be seen is how Trump will get his message out and stay relevant after leaving office.  Does he have an appetite for reelection in 2024...and for facing all the slings and arrows that the Dems would throw at him in the meantime?  Will he be so harried by vindictive legal action that he won't be able to sustain a vigorous public role?  Will he launch his own social network, or TV network, to confirm the dominance of the Trump brand in right-wing politics?  Will he perhaps endorse Don Jr. as his political successor?  I don't have answers to ANY of these questions...but we can say for sure that, for the present, Trump is THE MAN in the GOP.  The Cheneys and Romneys of this world would do well to remember that.


  1. The "conventional wisdom" that the GOP will take the House in 2022 is not guaranteed. The party in power does not always lose seats -- Clinton gained seats in his second midterm and Bush 43 gained seats in his first midterm.

    Moreover, almost all the seats that flipped from Dem to GOP were in districts that are purple. They flipped from GOP to Dem in 2018 with small majorities and flipped back with small majorities. Thus, they are very competitive districts, and will likely flip only if there is a wave election.

    As for the Senate, the only possible vulnerable Dem Senator would be Warnock in GA. At the same time, Toomey's seat in PA is likely to flip, and Ron Johnson is vulnerable in WI. Burr is retiring in NC, and NC has been trending more purple. So, there's more of a possibility that the Dems pick up one or two seats.

    As far as Trump, his brand is in the toilet, and he will be facing a number of civil suits, and possible criminal indictments. He's not going to be able to launch anything like an online network or TV network. He's more likely to be going bankrupt, yet again.

  2. Rod, you did so well at forecasting the blue wave in 2020 that I see you're at it again! I believe you had Collins and Tillis as goners this year? How did that work out? You're right, of course, that nothing is guaranteed in an off-year election. Your wrong about the size of the GOP's gains in 2002 (, but you're correct that there are examples of the voters swimming against the tide of history. Still, the odds say that 2022 is likely to be a good year for Republicans. The odds certainly don't say that the GOP will shrivel up and die.

    1. The GOP started out as the Grand Old Party and ended up as the Grand Old Pissants. They won't do shit in the next four years except to pretend they are opposing Biden, just like they pretended to support Trump.

  3. Nick, actually, I was correct about 2002:

    "Although it was a midterm election under a Republican president, the Republican Party gained a net eight seats, solidifying their majority." -- from your source.

    As for the Blue Wave, Cunningham couldn't keep it in his pants, and that allowed Tills to win. Collins surprised everyone in ME. The general explanation is that Gideon was perceived as a little too liberal for ME, which is a blue state, but a moderate one.

    Aside from historical precedence though, I don't know why you think 2022 will be good for Republicans. Is there another reason you are optimistic about GOP chances?

  4. Dr. Waddy et al from Jack: Well, in two days the Kamalafornia dictatorship begins. It is promised that it's vanguard will consist of a veritable flurry of vindictive executive orders. How very characteristic this is of the left in any measure of power. How very surely it confirms of what their rule will consist should they achieve their totalitarian dreams. BUT . . . we deplorables won't stand for it, no we won't! We can benefit from some cooperation with such as Congressman Tom Reed, with some measure of compromise with the "moderate" refugee outliers of the far leftist captured Dems. Joe Manchin? My trust in him just took a big hit. And confirmed RINOs like Cheney and Romney? Hit the bricks! Illegal aliens? Persona most grata on Jan.20. They will be bade remember those who casually opened the doors of order and prosperity to them and will be cynically used thereby by that
    same radical left which would, should it achieve totalitarian sway, discard them with contempt and dispatch.

  5. "Vindictive" executive orders? Biden plans to rescind the travel ban on several predominantly Muslim countries; rejoin the Paris climate change accord; extend pandemic-related limits on evictions and student loan payments; issue a mask mandate for federal property and interstate travel; and order agencies to figure out how to reunite children separated from their families after crossing the border.

    Vindictive? More like humane.

  6. Rod, 8 doesn't equal 43, but you were right about the GOP's gains in 2002.

    Why do I think Republicans can do well in 2022? Historical precedent is a powerful factor, but in addition any number of things can trip up the Dems: a moribund President, the perils of critical race theory, extremists like Antifa and BLM, a surge in illegal immigration, fiscal challenges, resentment of business closures (assuming that's still on the political radar). The main thing, though, is that it just isn't easy being in charge. The bigger they come, the harder they fall, right?

    Jack, I personally would not be so contemptuous of Cheney and Romney. Yes, they deserve a good tongue-lashing, but we still need their votes to hold the Marxist horde at bay. Sometimes a RINO is still better than a...DINO?

    The executive orders don't scare me that much. Trump issued them by the boat-load, and none of them moved the ossified hulk of the federal government more than an inch or two. E.O.s are mainly for show. Yeah yeah, we'll pretend to lower carbon emissions, and graduate students from Yemen will suddenly be welcome again. Big deal. The real action is in Congress and the courts.

  7. Uh, Nick, "43" refers to our 43rd president.

    There are also a lot of things that can help Biden, not the least of which is the squashing of COVID through a ramped-up vaccination program. That alone will help the economy. If Biden can also get a combination of COVID relief and infrastructure through, the economy could really rebound, making people feeling pretty good about things in Fall 2022.

    It's the GOP that has issues, as the party is showing a major fissure with those supporting Trump and those who want to move on. They are going to need a leader who can get both groups together. Cruz and Hawley have screwed themselves with Jan. 6, Pompeo may see himself as a legitimate contender, but he is too closely aligned with Trump. Cotton is a possibility as he has managed to avoid being tarred with Jan. 6. Nikki Haley may be one candidate to unite both groups. Dan Crenshaw could be another.

    But, there's a lot of work for the GOP to do.

  8. Dr. Waddy et al from Jack: Let's see: we will be reentered, by fiat,into an international agreement motivated decisively by presumptuous ideology, NOT by scientific consensus, which bids fair to ruin the livelihoods of millions of Americans. That's humane? Oh I suppose it is in the same way as "be kind to animals". Yes?

  9. Dr. Waddy et al from Jack: "Vindictive": "said or done in revenge". The guiding spirit of the Dems since 2016 has been volcanic outrage at the insolence of those who deprived them of their great moment in 2016. It has been manifested in a thoroughly vicious, unprincipled onslaught on a duly elected President and the many millions of deplorables who were confirmed in their trust by his courageous devotion to their legitimate concerns. Now, having deposed him through a very suspect election, they advance pre Inauguration unifying rituals and, of course, in clement weather, Kumbayaa campfires too! "Why, we'll honor your 'points of view' provided you offer no 'hateful' resistance or even expressed doubt; then, be assured, we will use our righteous power to correct you! Do you doubt this? Then witness our accomplished and continuing vindication: the political cleansing of America and the relegation of all your ilk to deserved second class , shall we say, 'citizenship' ".

  10. Saying the election was suspect does not mean it was suspect. Even AG Barr said the election was free and fair.

    Joe Biden is a duly elected president. He is going to reverse policies destructive to America where he can, including the Paris Climate Accord which will NOT "ruin the livelihoods of millions of Americans." We will continue our transition from fossil fuels to sustainable energy sources, and, in that transition, whatever job losses come from the fossil fuel sector will be made up for with jobs in the renewable energy sector. At worst, we will have the same number of jobs. Plus, we will have the benefit of a cleaner environment.

  11. Dr.Waddy et al from Jack: Just as the 20th century provided a thorough test of Marxism in action, the Obama years showed us the futility of all that "green jobs" blather. Tell that to North Central Pennsylvania - God's country and the worst nightmare of the "sensitive" left. The compelling truth is: natural gas and it's acquisition, though anathema to the "environmental" tyrants, is the obvious, America affirming, answer to most concerns about readily accessible, life affirming, modern energy supply, rather than "politically correct" dreams.

  12. Ah. Thanks for setting me straight, Rod. Math was never my strong suit. :)

    I disagree about Hawley and Cruz, of course. I believe they were ennobled by their herculean labors on Jan. 6th/7th! They showed backbone, which is what the base craves. Anyway, Nov. 2022, let alone 2024, is a long way off. Sure, beating COVID will juice up the economy, and maybe massive spending will too. You'd call that a "sugar high" if it happened under Trump, and you wouldn't be far off.

    Jack, we will most certainly sign on again to the Paris Accord, but that agreement in itself doesn't scare me. It's a list of platitudes more than anything. What could be more serious is the domestic regulatory zeal of the Biden regime, which could undo much of our prosperity and could certainly raise energy costs. But, I guess, that's what the people want!

    Jack is right: revenge fantasies are what makes the black heart of leftism beat these days. The Left's pronunciamentos are mostly insults and threats, after all. Are WE trying to "cancel" you? No! YOU are trying to cancel us. I rest my case.

    Rod, a transition to new energy sources is inevitable. It's all a question of the time frame, and whether the market, rather than the government, will determine it. I think it's HIGHLY unlikely that the "green" energy sector will ever produce as many jobs as fossil fuels did, however. Even the fossil fuel sector itself gets by with fewer and fewer workers. That's the way of the world. Greater efficiency yields fewer jobs.

    And Jack is of course right that most of our successes to date in curbing carbon emissions are thanks to the popularization of natural gas. Is Biden serious about strangling this burgeoning industry in its crib? Or, as seems more likely, is his advocacy of "green energy" more about steering tax credits and subsidies to his friends?

  13. Dr. Waddy et al from Jack: In his silly Carteresque way, pore ol Joe is fashionably "concerned" about the assured perfidy of mankind in causing climate change. We can expect sweater clad fireside chats replete with Rod Mckuen like platitudes and we deplorables will just have to get our minds right because . . . he's serious! But when his "downtown" handlers tire of his "uptown" half assed ways he will be put out to pasture. For them this environmental chimera is the key to their usurpation of irresistible POWER, free of democratic restraints. And this done, let the social cleansing of America commence, with a vengeance, such is their creed.

  14. Jack, the good news is that environmental extremism is one of the wedge issues that we right-thinkers can use to reacquire power -- by turning the Dems against each other. By no means do they agree on what to do about climate change, and there's simply no way Sleepy Joe can satisfy his corporate backers and the AOCs of this world simultaneously. Something has to give.

  15. Dr. Waddy fromJack: Makes sense to me!