Friends, I'm sure I don't need to remind you to vote, but I will remind you that we're very blessed to live in a country where We the People get to decide who will lead us. I anticipate a great night for Republicans, yes, but more to the point I'm 100% sure that America will keep on ticking, as it always does, and our divisions will subside, sooner or later. One Nation Under God, Indivisible, With Liberty And Justice For All! Take a little time today to be thankful, if you please.
Here's a very interesting analysis based on some sophisticated number crunching. I don't agree with the conclusion, but I think the article does a good job of revealing just how challenging it will be for the Democrats to take control of the House...
https://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/2018/11/06/flipping_the_house_what_94_06_10_turnout_tells_us_138561.html
And, yet, the House did go Dem, as did 7 governors and state legislatures. Senate was another matter. But, some interesting things going forth. O'Rourke's strong performance revealed TX is changing. In IA, three of the four House seats (except for the racist, Steve King) are Dem. That might not bode well for Joni Ernst in 2020. Corey Gardner is vulnerable in Colorado. In FL, 1.4 million felons who have served their time have had their voting rights restored, and are well aware that GOP kept them from voting for years. Combine that with MI, IL, WI flipping back to blue, Trump has some headwinds to face in 2020.
ReplyDeleteOf course, 2020 is a lifetime away. Lots of events can change things dramatically -- a trade war, a slowing economy, an international conflict, another Supreme Court fight, a House investigation into Trump's finances -- can be game-changing.
More importantly, Dems have to decide on a candidate, and I'm not sure that any of the current folks mentioned are actually going to be the candidate.Amy Klobochar, for example, would be someone who might work, being from the midwest, and having rose to prominence in the Kavanaugh hearings (looking the best of the Dems by far). A Klobochar-O'Rourke ticket would be very formidable.
Dr. Waddy and Rod: The Democrats may have invited nemesis upon themselves. Possible as leaders in the House are histrionic, presumptuous and laughable Nancy Pelosi and Maxine Waters; good luck selling their record to the 2020 electorate. Rod, I think your analysis of some of the results is plausible but I would invite you to examine my views at Stengel3916.Blogspot.Com.
ReplyDelete"Klobuchar-O'Rourke '20" sounds like a very inelegant bumper sticker to me, Rod, but stranger things have happened. Personally, I don't fear any of the potential Democratic candidates, but nor am I foolish enough to believe that Trump will have an easy time of it in 2020. As you say, much can change, but one thing won't change: the media will always loathe Trump, and that gives any Democratic candidate a good shot.
ReplyDeleteJack, I agree that Pelosi and Waters will be dead weights for the Dems, which I very much doubt they will have the common sense to remove. I don't view a Democratic House as a great impediment to the Trump agenda (which wasn't gaining much traction in Congress anyway), and I further believe that their newfound power in the House may prove just as problematic as losing the midterms would have been. For instance, getting the center and the left in the Democratic caucus to agree on how to handle impeachment will be darn near impossible... They've also just given President Trump a convenient foil to run against in 2020: a "do-nothing", vindictive House of Representatives.
Dr. Waddy: Yes, yes! Also, they won't be able to enact one damned piece of wrongheaded legislation of their own. I'll still stick with Biden - Gillibrand (NY today, tomorrow the world for perky Kirsten, well I wot!). Great point about the difficulties the President has already faced like the trooper he is. He'll be able to hack this one too.
ReplyDeleteYour warning about the certain continued leftist bias of the MSM is creditable but I do wonder if a cumulative and far reaching cynicism about that institution continues to build. I think it possible that some near future phenomenom like even the 2020 election may show it to have passed into "professional wrestling" laughability and bemused contempt by the real American majority.
The House will provide a fascinating laboratory, for results which may turn the 2020 election, of just how infected by socialist lala the Dems are. Even Pelosi may try to put the brakes on and it would be great fun to see her excoriated by Alexandra Occasional Courtliness, the Infanta and Empress Presumptive (when she's old enough) of the Dems. History provides the example of the brief Puritan rampage in the England of the 1600's. Its excesses were enough to persuade the sensible English that "enough is too much". So too, I trust, will be the Dems' chaotic, dissembling and self defeating '60's style vindictive "occupation" of the House offices. It could be their "last hurrah" or "last right on!"
President Trump will be watching and will show his hand when he thinks it best, like the player he is.
I don't know, Jack. I find it hard to believe that a party that just won two-thirds of the youth vote is about to experience its "last hurrah". The Left is plucky, and since its denizens in the media, Hollywood, corporate America, and the education establishment still control the parameters of our national conversation, I'd say we'll have our work cut out for us. You're right that evolving circumstances have reduced the power of the media, but not fast enough. We need to find ways of accelerating this trend. We also need to encourage centrifugal tendencies on the Left, as much as possible. The prospects for in-fighting are not as great now as I had hoped they would be, but they're still vast. Someone like Tom Steyer, our great enemy in 2018, may all of a sudden emerge as something like an ally, albeit an unwitting one, because he wants to pin every Democrat down on the issue of impeachment. The more the Left harps on impeachment (which they soft-pedaled in 2018), the more their candidates will go down to defeat. In short, we can win in 2020 and beyond, but it will be a dogfight all the way. I see no alternative.
ReplyDeleteDr. Waddy: That's a compelling point about the youth vote and casts credible doubt on my "last hurrah" comment. Still, as they age and invest their lives they may come to resent having their earned wealth arbitrarily confiscated and even their values attacked. Unlike young conservative boomers, they will have a thriving and well established conservative movement to which to repair.
ReplyDeletePresident Trump is doing a very good job of discrediting the MSM. Continued and increasingly resolute support for him in this is the way, I think. He should be the focal point, as he has shown a gutsy willingness to be. We should thoroughly boycott leftist "news" sources too.
The "resistance" is motivated by hatred and contempt and its hard to imagine anyone or anything inspiring that in them better than President Trump.His very presence in the White House, in itself drives them to the Maalox bottle. The more successful he is (eg. with a third SCOTUS seating)the more their vicious antipathy will grow and drive them to excess.
I completely agree, we are in a dogfight.
Dittos all around, Jack. It frankly depresses me that the Dems and lefties have already been driven to such epic "excesses", and yet they pay no electoral price for their extremism and lack of scruple. No doubt the Dems feel much the same way about Republicans. As the saying goes, "No one ever said life was fair," and no one ever said the voters were smart either (unless he was running for office at the time).
ReplyDeleteI have no doubt that many youngsters will rethink their leftist idealism given enough time, so I certainly don't think the Republican Party is doomed by demographic or generational factors. All the same, the Left's knack for indoctrination is impressive, and I daresay it's keeping their movement afloat.
Dr. Waddy: Lets consider: how many genuine committed far leftists have achieved ultimate power in the U.S.? The first, Hillary, did it only by shamefully riding her disdainful "husband"'s electoral success. His mind was ever below his middle and it allowed her sway which she converted into what? Two decisive rebuffs by the American electorate and that does reflect a price paid for extremism. The other, Obama,he of the casual friendship with William Ayers, practiced the art of the possible and learned that his American hating dream was not to be realized. Had he done what he wished he might well have faced the first Coup de Etat in our history.
ReplyDeleteWhat is to be learned from these realities is this: the left can exercise decisive influence only by disingenuous subterfuge. Honest leftists like McGovern, Mondale and Sanders can attest to that. Leftist indoctrination has had appalling consequences for our country but it can be defeated when we believe it can be because we are the real America.
Intriguing analysis, Jack. You're right that the crypto-leftists have more luck than the self-avowed "socialists". A lot of Dem "moderates" won on Tuesday, but of course they too will tow the party line. In that vein, we must fear that the Dems will find a presidential candidate who can APPEAR moderate, but will govern as a leftist. I suppose Beto might be one of those, maybe Gillibrand, possibly Biden. We would be much better off if the Dems nominate a nut like Steyer or Warren. Fingers crossed.
ReplyDeleteDr. Waddy: Its hard to imagine a true moderate wanting to be a Dem. What's the use? Why not just join the GOP. I assume that virtually any Dem talking "moderate" will do the party line dictated by resolute radicals.
ReplyDeleteYes, we would certainly need to define our terms. I'm not sure what a "moderate" is these days, except maybe someone who's willing to work with both sides... The existing political dynamics tend to punish "moderation", in that sense. We're all being pushed to the extremes and vetted for purity. I think much of it has to do with the Left's radical cultural/social agenda. It's hard to be "moderate" on those questions. Same with Trump. People generally love him or hate him. Not many who feel nothing, although there are some Dems who go out of their way not to express disapproval... As you say, though, we can more or less assume what they're thinking privately, and how they're going to vote. Having said that, impeachment is a high bar, and it could scare off plenty of Dems. I would still bet against impeachment.
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