Friends, my latest article is an analysis of President Trump's (superficially curious) decision to endorse Nancy Pelosi's bid to become Speaker of the House. Is Trump crazy...or crazy like a fox? Decide for yourselves.
President Trump: More “Mr. Nice
Guy,” Please
Lost in the hail
of barbs and recriminations that the talking heads unleash on poor
President Trump on a daily basis is the fact that he recently made a
brilliant political move of Machiavellian shrewdness. He endorsed
Nancy Pelosi's campaign to be re-elected as the Speaker of the House
of Representatives. In doing so, he put Pelosi and the Democrats –
his avowed political enemies – in a wholly unexpected and deeply
uncomfortable position.
How did he do it?
After the Democrats won the House majority in the midterm elections,
Trump tweeted that Pelosi “deserves this victory, she has earned
it.” He told reporters: “I like her, can you believe it? I like
Nancy Pelosi. She's tough and she's smart...she deserves to be
Speaker, and now they're playing games with her...” Trump has even
offered to “help Nancy Pelosi if she needs some votes”,
suggesting Rep. Tom Reed, a New York Republican, as a potential
Pelosi supporter.
What
are we to make of a Republican President who offers to assist a
much-reviled San Francisco liberal to assume the crucial role of
Speaker of the House? Pelosi dismissed Trump's offer immediately,
vowing that she would win the speakership with Democratic votes
alone, but could Trump's maneuvers have more lasting significance?
First, we should
observe that, in supporting Pelosi, Trump is arguably plucking some
very low-hanging political fruit. Pelosi is, despite a halfhearted,
leaderless rebellion against her by a handful of House Democrats,
extremely likely to be re-elected Speaker. According to PredictIt, an
online betting market that implicitly forecasts political
developments, Pelosi's return to the speakership is a 96% certitude.
President Trump is therefore betting on a winner, and in politics
that is seldom a bad idea. Trump is likely to earn some bragging
rights, therefore, and he will be able to greet the newly-enthroned
Speaker Pelosi in January with a firm handshake and a sly insinuation
that he was behind her all the way.
Second, President
Trump must know that, given the unprecedented loathing that liberals
feel towards him, his support for Nancy Pelosi cannot but be seen by
her as a political liability. From the leftist perspective, Trump's
approval of Pelosi is a bad joke, at best, and the kiss of death, at
worst. Liberals also realize that part of Trump's (and Republicans')
affection for Pelosi grows out of her perceived weakness. She is
widely seen by conservatives and Trump-supporters as a tarnished
figurehead for loony California-style liberalism. She is, in this
sense, the perfect foil for Trump to run against in 2020. That the
House she presides over will accomplish little besides raking
President Trump and his family members over the coals will,
Republicans assume, make it even easier to blacken the name of
Democratic candidates in 2020 with the epithet: “He/she is a Pelosi
liberal!” If one assumes, therefore, that the likely alternative to
Pelosi is a fresh new face with the potential to re-brand the
Democratic Party and refocus the work of the House on bipartisan
priorities, then it is surely in the political interests of
Republicans that Pelosi should retain her stranglehold on the
speakership and on the Democratic caucus. She is an albatross, pure
and simple.
Third,
assuming that Trump is actually playing a double game, and that his
support for Pelosi is intended to hobble her and/or to lessen her
chances of emerging as Speaker, the possibility emerges that Trump
will succeed in precipitating the defeat of his “favorite” by a
newcomer. If indeed Pelosi is
defeated, it will be because the Democrats succumbed to vicious
internecine squabbling. Trump and Republicans would take, one
assumes, undisguised pleasure in Pelosi's downfall and in the
Democrats' discomfiture. They might also assume that whomever was
chosen as the new Speaker of the House would be either severely
damaged by the bitter battle that would have preceded their
selection, or would be gravely compromised by the accommodations they
would have made with the far-left elements in the Democratic caucus
in order to achieve victory. Either way, Trump and the Republicans
would be the beneficiaries.
All in all,
therefore, Trump's decision to voice his support for Nancy Pelosi's
bid for the speakership seems like the rarest of political
machinations: a true win-win that carries virtually no risk for the
Machinator-in-Chief. To put it another way, whatever happens to Nancy
Pelosi, Trump will come out of the Democrats' bruising political
struggle smelling like a rose.
Given the obvious
political benefits of President Trump's unconventional intervention
in the Democrats' House leadership contest, perhaps President Trump
should consider reprising the role of “Mr. Nice Guy” in the near
future. For instance, some well-timed, incisive praise for the
President's favorite Hollywood blowhards (Alec Baldwin?), for
left-leaning corporate bigwigs (Jeff Bezos?), and even for the
brashest and most refractory of White House correspondents (Jim
Acosta?) could be just the medicine these “enemies of the people”
need to rethink their life-philosophy of Trump-hatred. Every
compliment could even come with a free MAGA hat...
Could the
old-saying be true: you catch more flies with honey than with
vinegar? I advise President Trump to find out. What does he have to
lose?
Dr.
Nicholas L. Waddy is an Associate Professor of History at SUNY Alfred
and blogs at: www.waddyisright.com.
He appears weekly on the Newsmaker Show on WLEA 1480.
And here it is in the Daily Caller:
https://dailycaller.com/2018/11/27/trump-nancy-pelosi-nice/
And here it is in the Daily Caller:
https://dailycaller.com/2018/11/27/trump-nancy-pelosi-nice/
Dr. Waddy: In a sense, the President has honored Slick Willy himself( fie on all those pretenders) in his Clintonian preemption of regard for Madame Pelosi. " Aw sure, ah've allus been a country boy who hates big govment " - " Oh yeah, I've always admired Nancy." Is the President to be faulted for that? Nah. He's a consummate player who knows full well he is dealing with a completely amoral American left and is blithe to hoist them on their own petards. In doing so with such dispatch he puts them on notice that he is not at all intimidated by their electoral successes (incomplete as they be). I would agree with your suggestion that the President considerextending more offers of honey because I am confident that he is preparing a trap for the presumptuous Dems.
ReplyDeleteCan they empower a Speaker who sincerely intends bipartisan intercourse of the type so haughtily rejected by Madame Pelosi in her reenthronement effort? That would be a test of the power of their increasingly and baldly assertive Socialist faction, led by the Infanta Alexandra.
I think your analysis of this fascinating dynamic is spot on.
Dr. Waddy: I didn't make much sense in my comment about the Socialists. They might front a conciliatory stance but they would not be sincere about it.Their goal is destruction and domination.
ReplyDeleteJack, I'm sure you're right about the socialists and the hard-left, but does Madame Pelosi represent them? I don't see it that way. She's a consummate politico and very much an establishment Democrat. I believe she'll be willing to work with President Trump on some issues, and I suspect at the end of the day she'll try to sabotage impeachment efforts too -- if only out of perceived self-interest. On the other hand, if Pelosi WAS dethroned and a wild-eyed socialist took her place, that might blow up the Democratic Party... Always a silver lining, no matter what happens.
ReplyDeleteDr. Waddy: We'll see soon.
ReplyDelete