Friends, after that first initial burst of info from early voting tallies, which showed surprising -- nay, historic! -- strength for the GOP, we haven't heard much from the mainstream media on this issue. You can see why. The "blue wave" narrative is an end in itself, and it can't be undermined, because Democrats have little else going for them. Having said that, some local news outlets are still reporting the news (imagine that!), and in Arizona, a key Senate battleground, the news is all good for Republicans: GOP turnout is way up and outpacing Democratic turnout. We keep hearing that Democrats historically dominate in early voting. Not this year. Does this presage a "Red Wave"? Maybe. I'd like to hope so!
https://ux.azcentral.com/story/news/politics/elections/2018/10/26/arizona-gop-holds-early-voting-advantage-dimming-hopes-blue-wave/1777043002/
And here's a bonus for you: a RealClearPolitics analysis of the significance of the massive crowds at Trump rallies leading up to the midterms. We keep hearing that Dems are champing at the bit, but if that's true why do they show up in such small numbers to hear their leftist heroes, like Obama and Biden, speak? Mark my words: one take-away from this election will be that Democratic donors and leftist activists were fired up, but that doesn't necessarily translate into big turnout among the rank and file.
https://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/2018/10/25/is_trump_transforming_midterms_with_arena-size_rallies_138461.html
Please excuse my absence from your blog, Geneseo is keeping me real busy. I agree...I also think that the Democrats have overplayed their hand(s).
ReplyDeleteBe careful about reading too much into early voting. First, there is no research that says Democrats vote early. That's a claim that has been put forward in the last couple weeks to promote a "red wave." The research into early voting says that those with higher incomes and with a higher educational level are the ones who turn out to vote early.
ReplyDeleteIn addition, more registered Republicans than registered Democrats have voted early. But, more women have voted early than men. There is a huge gender gap this year, so it could be that registered Republican women are out voting for Democrats.
Finally, there were three hate crimes this week -- the shooting of two African Americans in KY by a white male, the sending of the mail bombs targeting critics of Trump by an ardent Trump supporter, and the murder of 11 people by a virulent anti-Semite. It is not clear what impact that could have on the election.
BTW, the news of these tragedies has buried the economic news that the economy grew 3.5% in the 3rd quarter. That meant we had the first 12-month period of economic growth over 3% (3.075%) since the period of 2nd quarter 2014-1st quarter 2015). That's good news which got buried. On the other hand, 3.5% growth was lower than predicted (4.0-4.2%) and points to four factors providing headwinds to the economy: rising interest rates, the winding down of stock buybacks, a slowing global economy (particularly China) and the impact of the tariffs. While the news of 3.5% growth probably would, on balance, be a positive for the GOP, the emerging problems would also be part of the narrative, so it's not clear if it would impact voting in a positive way for the GOP.
Rod:I would think the political impact of the crimes will be balanced by the apparent left and right sympathies of the perpetrators. Your well informed analysis of the possible effects of the economy on the election looks plausible to me. Dr. Waddy: Biden was in character last night blaming all of it on President Trump with his customary self righteous smirk on display;he is ruled by emotion. I can't wait to see President Trump play him like a fish in the 2020 debates. Biden would do well to read the journal Commentary now and again to be reminded of the strong strain of antisemitism in his American left ( eg. Sharpton, Hillary with her "f ing Jew" emprecations, Obama's obvious loathing for Israel, the left's problems with the continued existence of Israel and Israelis, ad nauseum). Opposition to Israel does not prove antiSemitism, although that often is the guiding emotion therein, but to advocate Israel 's extermination either overtly or by supporting those forces openly committed to that end, pretty well does. "If it quacks like a duck . . .". Lotsa quacking over on the left.
ReplyDeleteJack, the three perpetrators were all on the right, so I am not sure about your first comment. If you are saying that there are those on the left who have been out of line, such as disrupting dinners, that's true. But disrupting dinners is different than killing people.
ReplyDeleteI also need to push back at "Obama's obvious loathing for Israel." That's just not true. Obama loathed Netanyahu, not Israel. Obama supported a two-state solution, which is also not anti-Israeli.
Finally, how do you figure that Trump would play Biden like a fish? Biden matches Trump in his appeals to working class populism. Plus, Biden is way more intelligent than Trump is. It would certainly be an entertaining debate, but assuming Trump would best Biden may be giving Trump way too much credit.
Welcome back, Linda! We're glad to have you. :)
ReplyDeleteRod, you're right that we shouldn't read too much into early voting tallies, but I have to disagree that there's no historic trend of Democrats performing well in early voting and less well on election day. That's an established pattern, as one of the articles I will post today will attest. I agree, though, that the strong economy won't drive voters as much as one might expect, because the media is obsessed with other narratives. As for the rash of hate crimes -- or hate crime hoaxes, in the case of the non-bombs sent to Democrats -- I doubt the political impact will be great. Neither party has a monopoly on kooks and degenerates. As for Republican women voting for Democrats, sure, some will, but there's no polling to suggest that Republicans, writ large, are anything but happy with Trump and Republicans. Don't hold your breath for a blue wave powered by Republican women.
Jack, I'll let you and Rod debate who's more anti-Semitic than whom. Both parties include a few anti-Semites, it seems to me, but both condemn hatred of Jews in the main. Personally, I don't see either party as responsible for the actions of extremists. The Pittsburgh shooter, in any case, wasn't a Trump-supporter, so I fail to see any political relevance.
Rod, I'm not sure I agree that Biden is more intelligent than Trump. In any case, Democrats have a tendency to nominate candidates who are...too intelligent for their own good, which is to say: arrogant and out of touch. Biden may be more folksy than most, but he's very capable of sticking his foot in his mouth.
Nicholas,
ReplyDeleteThere is no historic trend of Dems versus GOP in terms of early voting. If you look at 2008, 2012, and 2016, Dems outvoted GOP in 2008 and 2016 while there was no difference in 2012. In 2010 and 2014, GOP came out early. The predictors are not political party but income and education.
There doesn't have to be much of a change in white women voters to change things. Had white women voted slightly more for Clinton than slightly more for Trump, she would be president today.
Finally, with all due respect, though it is a Rush Limbaugh talking point, to call the bombs a "hate crime hoax" is terribly irresponsible. FBI Director Christopher Wray said that these were real bombs sent to critics of Donald Trump by a Donald Trump supporter. That's not a hoax. That's domestic terrorism. And while the synagogue shooter was not a Trump supporter, he was a member of the alt-right, which does support Trump. The three tragedies won't affect the bases, but it may impact independents who see Trump's rhetoric -- and tone deaf responses -- as un-presidential and vote for Democrats.
Rod: I had heard reports that the Pittsburgh shooter had excoriated President Trump but I see it is reasonable to put him on the far right because of his apparent Nazi sympathies. But the Nazis are a despised and powerless faction whose day is long done. On the other hand, Marxists, the far left, are historically far more murderous than the Nazis and are assuredly historically and savagely antisemitic (Marx, himself of Jewish origin, energetically advocated the destruction of Judaism; Stalin was close to enacting his own Jewish holocaust when he was taken). Leftists are firmly esconsed in positions of great power in America (the Federal and the bureaucracies of several states, including NY, where I directly encountered them while in state service, the MSM and the American academy). I know you are aware of the maxim that "the enemy of my enemy is my friend ". I'd suggest also that the friend of my enemy is my enemy and the Pittsburgh shooter, whether he meant to be or not, is the ally of the considerable and murderous antisemitic faction of the American left.
ReplyDeleteWhen Al Gore was debating Bush II I was commuting a long distance at night. I listened to their debates on radio and even on that limited medium Gore's frantic arrogance and conviction that his views were unassailable and that disagreement was reprehensible, was readily apparent. I see that attitude also in Biden. Trump is a canny, streetwise player who is constantly underestimated and it is for those reasons that I think Trump may toy with Biden. Trump may well be the common sense guy who takes the haughty intellectual to the cleaners in political discourse; that may well be the way that the majority of Americans may see it and hence my prediction, for what its worth.
Obama's advocacy of a state positioned minutes from Israel's vitals and no doubt dominated by those dedicated to Israel's extinction ( and history gives us stark evidence of how that would be accoplished) is in effect a vote for the intensely antisemitic destruction of the Jewish state. Your comment that Obama loathed Netanyahu and not Israel is creditable and plausible but Obama would nevertheless have enacted, I think, if he could have done, that which could have spelled the end of Israel.
Rod: One additional comment, if you will (thanx): Biden humbled the spineless Paul Ryan in 2012 and though he would attempt a reprise, would find in Trump a formidable combatant. Much as a judo master reacts to his or her opponent's apparent strengths and turns them against the opponent , Trump would flim flam the self righteous Biden and his far left enablers.
ReplyDeleteJack, two things. Prior to Netanyahu taking office, the Israeli government was far more supportive of the two-state solution than after he took office (which was after Obama became president). The fact is, there are two choices -- either adopt a two-state solution acceptable to both sides, or forcibly remove Palestinians from the West Bank.
ReplyDeleteSecond, your description of Stalin and the state of affairs for the Jewish people in the Soviet Union is incomplete. Though Stalin personally tended to anti-Semitism, he protected Jewish people before and during World War II. In fact, until Israel rebuffed the Soviet Union as an ally, things were actually getting better for Jewish people in Israel. After Israel aligned itself with the U.S. and against the Soviet Union, Stalin feared a "fifth column" of a Jewish resistance, and turned 180 degrees against them. This was less about anti-Semitism as preventing a presumed enemy from taking power, though it is true the impact was similar in terms of the assassination and jailing of a number of Jewish leaders. There was no parallel to the extent of the concentration camps that the Nazis had.
Boy, who would have thought we'd get sidetracked by Stalin? As a historian, I love it! But I would have to agree with Rod that the Soviets were much less intrinsically anti-Semitic than the Nazis. I would describe Stalin as an equal-opportunity anti-HUMAN monster...
ReplyDeleteRod, I'm afraid your argument for the early vote makes no sense to me. You say it's about income and education, but you also say every election is different. Are you under the impression that Republicans and Democrats change their educational credentials and income levels every two years or so? I'd also be interested in seeing the evidence on which you base your claim that Republicans were the ones voting early in large numbers in 2014. Here's proof of the opposite: http://time.com/3551146/early-voting-turnout-north-carolina-elections/
Rod: I stand better informed on Stalin now; you've described the history of that era accurately. My understanding is that Stalin was planning a mass relocation of Russian Jews ala his treatment of the Tatars etc. They might not have ended up in the Gulag but there probably would have been alot of concentration enroute. And I would guess that we would all agree that Russian antisemitism has a deep and intense history though being Russian does not necessarily mean being leftist or antisemitic. I would recommend the well written and documented articles frequently published in Commentary as containing far sounder arguments for extensive and perhaps essential antisemitism in the left than I can muster.
ReplyDeleteI'm going to have to become better informed on Israeli politics over the last twenty years. Being that Israel is a true Democracy and that its culture is highly principled, I can believe there are Israelis who think it just that a Palestinian state everywhere a stone's throw from them be accomodated. But doesn't the fact that Netanyahu has held office for a long time now bespeak a conviction by an Israeli majority that to do that would be to intensify an already existential threat?
Jack, I believe you're right that Stalin had plans for another wide-ranging purge before he died, and the Jews may well have been on the chopping block. Personally, I wouldn't want to have been a Christian or a Jew under Stalin!
ReplyDeleteAs for a Palestinian state, I leave all that in the capable hands of Jared... In my opinion, a two-state solution is conceivable, but it would have to be lubricated with billions of dollars in aid and probably some kind of international peacekeeping force.
Dr. Waddy: Stalin was a thing other than human, crept out of reeking hell and probably returned thence, though perhaps not; perhaps he did not choose to be an instrument of fundamental and inscrutable evil.
ReplyDeleteIt makes sense to me that Israel would countenance a Palestinian state if it were to get assurance of its security beyond that provided by its nuclear arsenal. But if Iran acquires nukes . . .! Perhaps a convincing statement by the U.S. that it will under no circumstances interfere with Israel's right to defend itself as it sees fit, or a formal alliance with Israel, or induction of Israel into NATO, might make Israel feel safe.
The arguments you and Rod have made on the extent of antisemitism in the left are solid and may well have bested
mine. With that caveat I remain inclined to my view. I've always been mystified by the historic tenacity and ferocity of Jew hatred. I continue to read about it in various sources and though I know more about its various manifestations I remain in question about the reasons for its terrible intensity. Maybe it is beyond any explanation.
I'm disgusted by the scrutiny afforded Israel ( a heroic and positive little state) by so much of the world for perceived (some understandably so) injustices for which parallels nevertheless abound, often at the hands of countries which excoriate Israel and extra governmental entities like the Western left. I can find no other explanation than this: the ancient, perhaps even fundamental to human nature, curse of antisemitism. I know that the considerable presence on the American left of well schooled Jewish Americans casts doubt on this notion but plausible explanations for this conundrum have been advanced by the mostly Jewish scholars who publish in Commentary. No journal is gospel, I know, but Commentary reflects, I think, much integrity. I appreciate your willingness to tolerate in your blog the disparate paths our conversations sometimes pursue.
Jack, I can certainly see this kernel of truth in your perception that the Left is infiltrated by anti-Semites: I believe HATE, writ large, is fairly normative on the Left, at this stage, since liberals feel emboldened to despise anyone who gets in their way. Right-wing hate, by contrast, while it exists, is kept in check by a great deal of media scrutiny and public criticism. Liberals, to my mind, are simply more hateful because they can get away with it. Their smugness is virtually bulletproof.
ReplyDeleteAs for Israel, I don't see that it has anything to fear from a Palestinian state, in itself. Any such state would be destined to be small, weak, and probably geographically dispersed.
Dr. Waddy: My next blog post will comment on the left's blithe assumption of license to hate and I will in it acknowledge your contribution here to my understanding of it.
ReplyDeleteYour comment on Israeli concerns about a Palestinian state are plausible; still, how must they, as perhaps the only population in the world which has faced forcefully attempted extermination (in 1948 and 1974) and continuing promises of the same, not to mention the Holocaust (which, I think, caused a watershed in Jewish thinking to the effect that "next year in Jerusalem" was obsolete and that they MUST take charge of their corporal well being) - how must they regard the prospect of a potential Iranian client state positioned on their very wasplike midriff and possibly threatening yet another denial to them of access to their most sacred sites?
Jack, there is a wide open field when it comes to analyzing the Left's penchant for hate -- they give us so much material to work with!
ReplyDeleteSure, Israel's concerns are valid, but my point was that a Palestinian state would pose no great danger, but it could conceivably attract allies that would mount a more serious threat. That's why I suggested the peacekeeping force. I think both Israel and a Palestinian state could flourish in the context of an international guarantee of their security.
Dr. Waddy: Your expectation that it would not pose a great threat is well informed and plausible. I hope it true because I revere Israel.And thanx for reminding me of your proposal for a peacekeeping force; I would guess it would have to convince the rugged and resolute Israelis of its devotion to Israel's continued existence but that might be doable.
ReplyDeleteHowdy! Someone in my Facebook group shared this site with us so I came to give it a look. I'm definitely loving the information. I'm book-marking and will be tweeting this to my followers! Fantastic blog and brilliant design.
ReplyDeleteGlad to see another contributor, esp. one with such a memorable name.
DeleteRod, we Trumpers always stand erect and proud! Ha ha.
ReplyDelete