An All-Points Bulletin to Democrats: Your Blue Wave is Already Underwater

Friends, the data continues to accumulate, and things are looking good!

First, let me ask you this: if you had to base your predictions for the midterms on a poll, conducted among several hundred possible voters, and put through a statistical meat-grinder, or on several million actual voters, visiting actual polls, and casting actual votes, which would you choose? No contest, right? Well, we're now in a position to analyze who has voted early in the midterms, and the results are shocking for those who've clung to the false hope of a "blue wave". Republican turnout is surging -- much more so than Democratic turnout. Check out these fascinating analyses, which I hasten to point out do not come from FoxNews, but from left-leaning media organizations:

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/early-returns-excited-bases-democrats-republicans-214300018--election.html

https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/meet-the-voters/over-8-million-people-have-voted-early-outpacing-2016-nbc-n924281

Both of these articles are fascinating, and they convey somewhat different impressions of the electoral landscape thus far, but the common denominator jumps out at us: neither analysis is indicative of anything like a "blue wave". In fact, some of this information smacks of a "red wave"! To me, the NBC article is more compelling, because it places the figures we have now in historical context. Given the massive turnout in early voting to date, it seems reasonable to compare where we are now to where we were at the same point in 2016, even though that was a presidential election year, and it's clear that, while Democrats held a sizeable edge in early voting in that year (and still lost), now the tables have turned and Republicans have the advantage. Is it possible that the data could be wrong or incomplete? Yes. For instance, these two articles give very different vote totals, and yet they were compiled at roughly the same time. One or the other of them is inaccurate, therefore. More importantly, there are still tens of millions of Americans who haven't voted, and many of whom won't vote until election day. Will they be, as history suggests, mostly Republicans? Don't forget: Mitt Romney won on election day, but he still lost the 2012 election because of early voting... We won't know for sure how things will shake out until all the votes are counted, but in my opinion it's unlikely that well-established patterns will reverse themselves. It's more likely that both Democrats and Republicans are fired up this year -- but Republicans appear to be more fired up. For a Democratic Party already counting its winnings from a "big blue wave," this information isn't just "bad news", it's potentially catastrophic! Stay tuned.