Friends, the reciprocal tariffs we were promised have arrived, and, in the short term, the markets don't seem to like them much. That was predictable. Trump is upending the whole international trading system, which has long been based on, and taken for granted, American gullibility and stupidity, and such a sea change will certainly inconvenience and even terrify some. The long-term impact of tariffs, and even whether many of these tariffs will endure for the long-term, is hard to predict. What wasn't hard to predict is the panic that many Democrats and leftists are currently feeling, which mirrors their sense that America is but inches from totalitarianism. My big fear is not that tariffs will wreck the economy, but that Trump haters will wreck the economy by selling all their stocks and refusing to purchase any consumer goods. Their economic pessimism may be as delusional as their political predilections, but even delusions can become self-fulfilling prophecies. In any case, I wouldn't lose hope just yet. The U.S. economy, and the world economy, can boast a lot of fundamental strengths, and those fundamentals may yet carry the day. And, if they don't, any recession may be brief or shallow. There's no doubt, however, that Trump has taken a big risk by imposing these sweeping tariffs. And I say that as someone who is broadly sympathetic to the idea of reciprocal tariffs, and who believes that we ought, as a nation, to have taken these steps a long time ago. The simple fact is, though, that just because Trump is in the right does not mean that his gambit will work as intended, especially when so many powerful people are determined to make sure that it doesn't.
https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cly1g63x7q8o
Dr. Waddy from Jack: Well, we probably don't have to worry about limousine liberals like the Obamas or Pelosi and their kind cutting their conspicuous consumption down. Oh they may make some virtue signaling gesture like a proletarian garage sale.
ReplyDeleteAnd the hard core campus far left "students" aren't going to learn how to make Ramen noodles from scratch.
But that sardonic crack aside, I agree with everything you are saying . above. Though he wrote in the midst of a very mortal Crisis, Paine's call for fortitude in his writing of the same title can be applied today.
It makes me nervous too to see the stock market go bananas. Those who accuse DJT and Musk of seeking increased personal wealth only ought to consider that. And yes, like the player he is , DJT is taking risk with our economy, though not without expert advice, in order to achieve a long needed reform of our trade relations.
He is already having an apparently salubrious effect on gas prices, maybe with his liberation of the far leftist beleagured energy industry. Oh, the risk that Al Gore's "Inconvenient Truth" might be yet affirmed! And those who benefitted from the unlimited invasion of illegal aliens RISKED by Biden, may be scrambling now to find another game. Persons who earned Sociology degrees over the last four years may find that what they were indoctrinated to "feel" about American demographics is kaput!
Dr. Waddy from Jack: How many dems sincerely believe that the country is close to totalitarianism under this administration? Some of good will , I would guess, really do. And of course accomplished partisan naysayers like Pelosi, Jeffries, Schumer and Sanders, together with the crazies like AOC and Crockett are goading them along, in accordance with their decades long resolution to employ "any means necessary". They know all about totalitarianism; they have been trying to force it on our country for decades now. They might well have sealed the deal had they won the election.
ReplyDeleteTheir present hyperbolic humbug is motivated by the unbearable ascension of a GOP President who does not fear them and does not tolerate their viciously demonstrated antiAmerican biases. Their frustration at being successfully opposed by their insolent bete noire is consuming. But they are not driven by fear of imminent totalitarianism. Takes one to know one, yes? That's not always true but here it fits like a glove. These longtime antiAmerican far left incipient totalitarians know DJT is not one and they ought to know!
Dr. Waddy from Jack: You are right to point out that our economy has many fundamental strengths.
ReplyDeleteBut to hear far leftists croak about how tampering with it will surely bring disaster, "oh the humanity!" (This from the crowd which wants to put Marxism at the helm. )
They certainly have no such compunctions about loading the economy down with overtaxation to pay for multitudes of dreamy, presumptuous, incipiently totalitarian "do good with other people's money; they can't be trusted to spend correctly" WASTE. And the unthinkable extent of this is becoming more obvious day by day now. But "oh no, this tariff business will surely manifest complete catastrophe" they bleat.
Gee Dems, just think. If the tariffs generate loads of blue collar jobs, why , that would create a whole new bunch of working people for you to take advantage of. I mean, they were YOURS until last November. You thought you had them pretty well flim flammed before DJT helped them see how very much you despise them. But that's ok; just find a neoClintonian carnival huckster savior and you can "feel" redeemed as you sink ever closer to the point of no return.
Jack, the Left would find ways to criticize Trump and Trumpism whether the market went up, down, or sideways, but there's no escaping the truism that an economy in retreat ALWAYS hurts the party in power...and that's us. Now, any emergency, including a recession, is also an opportunity to amass more power and authority in the hands of government, which for now we control. A recession would also be a grand excuse to hack away at the bureaucracy. Ergo, my advice to the lefties is: be careful what you wish for.
ReplyDeleteAnother brainstorm: tariffs will, among all their other effects, create revenue. Big tariffs create big revenues. Cutting the size of government, and raising taxes/tariffs, could be a recipe for balancing the budget, which I would sorely like to see.
Dr. Waddy from Jack: By "taxes/tariffs" did you mean taxes and tariffs or were you equating taxes with tariffs? We'd all hate to see taxes raised but perhaps the potentially disastrous reality of deficit spending leaves us no choice. I think Elon said he believes DOGE can generate a 15% cut in Federal spending. And if tariffs help to create lots of new manufacturing jobs, then income tax revenue should increase. That, along with tariff revenue and if necessary in order to redeem the irresponsibly unlimited spending burden laid on us by the left, MAYBE (?) temporary tax increases: all that, may put us on the road to eventual integrity.
ReplyDeleteBut MAGA would pay a hard political price for tax increases. The possible consequential empowerment of a Speaker Jeffries would see the MAGA legislative agenda stymied. A dem President would unleash a fanatically vindictive far left to make up for lost time in its perfectionist onslaught on America. That "caveat" no doubt will be taken very seriously. America might see increased taxes under this administration as a cynical betrayal.
Dr. Waddy from Jack: Bush I's retreat from his campaign "no new taxes" pledge opened the door for Slick Willy and the searing shame for all of us of his defeat by a draft dodger, even after the great popularity he earned as a WWII hero and a good wartime President. Gads, lets not give any advantage to the appalling dem Presidential hopefuls if we can help it.
ReplyDeleteAnd I should have said ". . . Slick Willy and his 'wife', the putative co President . . . "
ReplyDelete