Congratulations to Donald J. Trump, double winner of the Iowa caucuses! Why do I say "double winner"? Because, for starters, Trump beat the entire field by a wide margin, and thus cemented his status as the overwhelming favorite to win the GOP presidential nomination. In addition, though, Florida Governor Ron DeSantis edged out former UN Ambassador Nikki Haley for second place, breathing some life into his moribund campaign. The real winner, though, once again, is Trump, because keeping DeSantis in the race splits the ranks of the anti-Trumpers in the GOP, meaning that it will postpone the inevitable winnowing of the field to Trump versus...a single anti-Trump. Now, because of his strong showing in Iowa, DeSantis will go into New Hampshire with a head of steam -- hobbling Haley and making it easier for Trump to win the Granite State. Bottom line: DJT is living high on the hog, thanks to the good people of Iowa!
Dr. Waddy from Jack: Well, the dems are staking an awful lot on shaking DJT's candidacy to its Maga base with their lawfare . And gee, we sure are disillusioned about him aren't we! In Iowa every county but one went for him. OOOPS!Maybe the dems have made a grave tactical error in their vicious onslaught on DJT in addition to personally wronging DJT and his family and through them,well, America.. They may well be getting that sick sinking feeling which bodes the onset of mindless panic.Their frivolously conceived, flimsily constructed, counterintuitive political structure may have its own demolition by a political movement which is of necessity every bit as nasty as they are, on the near horizon. Loopholes are opening in their fortifications and its time to drive tanks through them.
ReplyDeleteDr. Waddy from Jack: Vivek's departure from the contest and his graceful and firm endorsement of DJT is a positive development. He has made a good fight and with it mobilized people of very constructive conservative views who now probably strengthen DJT. He'd be a very good asset for DJT's effort and shows much promise, perhaps for 2028
ReplyDeleteLet's try to keep a bit of perspective here. There are 2 million registered voters in IA, of whom about 750,000 are registered Republicans. A bit more than 110,000 voted in the caucuses last night (14.6% of Republican voters). Some 51% of caucus goers voted for Trump (let's generously say 7.4% of registered Republicans). On the other hand, 49% voted for someone else besides Trump (or, say, 7.2% of registered Republicans). So, 0.2% of registered Republicans made the difference here. Not exactly an overwhelming mandate!
ReplyDeleteRod et al from Jack: No candidate has ever gotten over 50% in the Iowa Caucus before. The closest, I believe, was something over 40% Your argument is plausible but I would think it countered by that and by the fact that 7% went for Ramaswamy, a rising star now very solidly supporting DJT and 21% for DeSantis. Both of them are Maga in their views and I would think the true possibility of Pres. DJT, VP Ramaswamy or a Haley - DeSantis ticket (or the reverse) is a daunting prospect for the Democrat party.
ReplyDeleteNo Republican candidate has ever gotten over 50%. Tom Harkin got over 75% in the Iowa Democratic caucuses in 1992, with no other named candidate getting over 5% (a 70% win). Yes, Harkin was governor of Iowa, but Trump is a "pseudo-incumbent."
ReplyDeleteOK, so take Ramaswamy's voters and most of DeSantis and give them to Trump (24.5%). That means Trump got 75.5% of the vote or 11% of the registered Republicans in the state. Again, not exactly an overwhelming mandate.
Things can go south very quickly for Trump. In the next two weeks, he is going to get hit with a close to $10 million verdict in the E. Jean Carroll libel case. Haley could come within a close second (or even win) in New Hampshire. The courts are likely in the next 2-3 weeks rule that he does not have immunity for his actions. Trial dates will be looming. People may start to take another look at Trump.
Haley-DeSantis won't happen because Haley does not like DeSantis. If it's Trump-Ramaswamy, you will have two candidates who can't tell the truth.
RAY TO ROD
DeleteMany more than just "two candidates who can't tell the truth", since ALL politicians lie.
In any event, what will you do should Trump become President again? Will you leave The U.S.?
Maybe you should go into politics, since I can tell you are the kind of guy who never lies.
Dr. Waddy from Jack: Ramaswamy was right there beside DJT in NH today and all was rosy. The crowd was chanting "VP, VP" when Ramaswamy spoke (and quite well too). Gads, how the dems would be galled by a two businessMAN , insolent political outsider ticket with a non white man having a distinctive name( they think the latter virtue is their prerogative alone to empower after all). The prospect of a Pres. Ramaswamy after a four year apprenticeship as VP, could be a very effective selling point for a ticket, as it could suggest a long stretch of antiwoke Presidency (and JUDGES!). Right now he appears free of "baggage"; of course that would change as soon as the MSM wills it so and cranks up its slander machine but de nada, what else is new? Common sense says he wouldn't be able to fire 75% of the federal workforce as President (though I laud him for advocating it)but richly deserved "cancel" of the Dept.of Education might well be doable if DJT didn't beat him to it. Military confrontation of the Mexican cartels, which he endorses ,is inevitable I think; our military is there to protect the country, yes progressives and antiamerican "peaceniks"? Now there is a ticket we unreprogrammable deplorables (sorry Hill, hey ,give us some more fodder for this campaign!) could give our gunloving, big pickup truck luddite, unreconstructed patriotic, insolently free, country fried, backing, all the way to victory!
ReplyDelete" . . . to victory" and the redemption of our country from the incipient marxist curse!!
ReplyDeleteRod from Jack: Again, you make creditable points but: I doubt that participation in the Iowa Caucuses are ever of more than a small percentage even with nonlethal weather. Its the same old story everywhere; getting people to physically participate in politics. Contrasting Democrat caucus stats to GOP ought also to include consideration of cultural factors differentiating the two sides in a state where Democrats may be concentrated in enclaves (eg.Ames or Iowa City or possibly Des Moines) in an essentially conservative state now. The Iowa results may show that Maga is fed up with the vicious lawfare personal onslaught on DJT and consequently resolved to support him no matter how much totalitarian misuse of our legal system is manifest. We know that the way to crush this injustice is first to elect DJT and then have him use the pardon power to right the wrongs done him and so many other Americans by an amoral antiamerican left.
ReplyDeleteRod et al from Jack: JFK and LBJ didn't like each other and I'll bet Bush I held his nose when teaming up with President Reagan. If it comes to a winning ticket DeSantis and Haley might team up. Also, geographical proximity was no problem for Slick Willy and Gore.
ReplyDeleteJack, I think you may be mistaking the purpose of Democratic lawfare against Trump. I'm not sure the point was ever to deny Trump the GOP nomination. Look at the timing of the trials... No, I think the purpose was to make him unelectable in November, in the general election. We still don't know if that dog will hunt.
ReplyDeleteRod is right that a large number of Republicans don't want Trump. Based on national polls, I think we can say that half of the GOP is wildly enthusiastic for Trump. Based on national polls, I think we can also say that a relatively small number of Republicans are so averse to Trump that they would refuse to vote for him in the general election. Maybe 10%? Obviously the lawfare is designed to push that number higher.
Rod, I think you're kidding yourself if you think that any of the trials you mentioned will fundamentally change Republicans', or the nation's, perspective on Trump. Nothing has done so for almost eight years, if we're to be honest. At this stage, I don't even believe that felony convictions or incarceration will move the dial -- or at least we can't predict whether it would move the dial slightly in a rightward or leftward direction.
Jack, I would respectfully suggest that Trump and Ramaswamy are a bit too much alike: they are self-aggrandizing windbags who have little or no background in politics that would suggest a capacity to get things done, as opposed to delivering sound bytes and attack lines. Ramaswamy is smart, to a point, but I don't see that he has much to offer Trump politically.
Jack, you're right that political bedfellows need not be friends. Plus, Trump can and has mended fences before. You never know.
Dr. Waddy from Jack: Good point about the dems lawfare purpose being to defeat DJT in the election rather than the nomination. I stand corrected.
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