Friends, let's be clear: Iran is retaliating against Israel and America's attacks mainly by striking back against...the whole world, not its battlefield foes. What I mean is that Iran is doing its best, not just to pepper the whole region with missile and drone strikes, but also to close the Strait of Hormuz to all maritime traffic, thus dealing a body blow to the global economy. And yet, somehow, most of the world doesn't mind at all. In fact, it roots for Iran, just to spite the Zionists and MAGA! Well, that's pretty dumb, but I would also like to draw your attention to an important fact: the Strait is not completely closed, and, to the extent it is, that is only because most of the world knows that, for weeks if not months, it can dispense with Gulf oil without serious consequence. If the world was desperate for what the Middle East has to offer, after all, NATO, Japan, China, et al. would be helping us open the Strait. I mean, it would be suicidal for them to do anything else. The fact that they aren't tells us that all the handwringing over this "war" is mostly for show, at least at this stage. I conclude that the Strait is only "closed" because, right now, no one minds greatly that it is.
https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c4geg0eeyjeo
Want more cogent analysis of our hostilities with Iran? Listen in to the "Fourth Box" podcast, featuring Yours Truly as honored guest!
https://rumble.com/v770a3a-history-professor-nick-waddy-on-the-war-in-iran.html
Finally, now that DJT has made us all rich (thanks to strong economic growth and a buoyant stock market), we can throw a bit of our filthy lucre at the upcoming Trump coin...in gold, no less! Of course, any image of Trump has a value that's beyond price...
Dr. Waddy from Jack: That is a perceptive and intriguing view of the situation in the Straits of Hormuz. Makes alot of sense. More later. . . .
ReplyDeleteDr. Waddy from Jack: The possibility of an American assault on Kharg Island in the Persian Gulf is significant. Possession of it could give us a very handy spot from which to keep tabs on Iran should the regime not fall. It could also calm Persian Gulf nations' concerns about a now demonstrated recklessly aggressive Iran. President Trump ain't kiddin' around about it either. He is sending an amphibious task group from San Diego to the war zone; probably would take about ten days to get there; that provides time for Iran to sweat it!
ReplyDeleteOur President plays hardball with our military power. Why not? We can take confidence (and I'm sure he does, justifiably convinced as he is that the U.S. has been the most benevolent great power in history) that in this technologically geographically tightened world, a forward defense for the U.S. is sometimes prudent. This President is "can do" rather than "jaw-jaw".
Dr. Waddy from Jack: China is a major factor in this war , I think. They get about 45% of their oil from Iran. Our President has called on China to help keep the Strait of Hormuz protected from radical Islamist attack from Iran and the Houthis. Today's news says that China has asked Iran for guarantees against such attack.
ReplyDeleteWhy does China think itself constrained to do this? They have cultivated Iran for awhile now as a vital part of their developing overland commerce with the Middle East and Africa. One would think that under a firmly governed Iran China would assume such cooperation. But who knows who is " in charge" there now?
And who knows how much U.S. close control over Iran may result from this war? China might recoil at the prospect of the oil being under U.S. control. But China probably does not wish to tangle with the U.S. They might react by hastening development of overland routes (the "new Silk Road)for their vital imports from the Middle East.
I think that for China it depends , as it always does with a China now viscerally determined never again to be shamefully subjugated by foreigners, on how all this fits in with their perception of what their security requires. How far do they think they MUST go to guarantee it in this new/old world? The U.S., in their view, MAY be the avatar of the Western powers which took cynical advantage of its dynastic and weather caused agony in the 19th century. Chinese history manifests a succession of periodic dissolution followed by long established periods of strength and integrity. China is convinced that it is in full recovery now and finds the prospect of any reprise of its disgrace absolutely unbearable. When their supply of vital oil is at hazard, their reasoning probably follows such a line.
Dr. Waddy from Jack: With their history generated sensitivity to presenting any sign of Chinese weakness to the world, China may be wary of any military "cooperation" with the U.S. Also, it might be harder for them to convince their people that some future confrontation or fighting with the U.S. is necessary. Even Stalin had to "persuade" the tyrannized Russian people with disingenuous appeals to help him save "Mother Russia". China may also not want to give us a close up look at their ships and their operations.China has no modern experience of naval warfare and their lack of experience might be obvious up close.
ReplyDeleteDr. Waddy from Jack: I think DJT is such a street smart hombre that he hazards some ridicule by saying and doing things he knows will irk the emotionally vulnerable far left. He does it to throw his opponents off balance , to confront them with unprecedented behavior from a President which makes them wonder what kind of curveball he'll be throwing next. Like most players do, he probes for openings he can drive his tank through. And , I think he has jolly good fun provoking sombre and pedantic souls like Pelosi and Schumer and the vast legion of touchy feely holier than thous. He deserves a laugh or three at the expense of those who have tasked him so viciously. He knows one of the most intense of the condemnations dealt him by far left "inquisitors "is that he has an out of control ego. Like so many wise asses do, he plays off it. "Yeah, I have a biiig one and this gold coin ain't the end of it! Put that in your pipe and smoke it along with your weed !" He's a happy warrior; they just can't keep him down and that makes them even more frantic, reckless and vulnerable. Not nearly all players are criminals but most criminals are players and I saw hundreds of them at their games while working 20 years in state prisons.
ReplyDeleteDr. Waddy from Jack. "No kings" ehhh? "No, just totalitarian Marxist Dear Leaders thank you". Its nigh on demonstrative America hating season and the worker ant "useful idiots" are promised to swarm today at the dread command of the Central Committee. "Yes and since America is at war, another delicious chance to do our customary aid and comfort to the enemy is at hand. Why our honored Vietnam protest veterans may be able to rally with us for a last hurrah and to show us smoky young believers how to betray our country yet again. Yeah, rock 'n roll is here to stay! "
ReplyDeleteDr. Waddy from Jack: You have wisely opined that Russia and China may not be overly concerned by the present Iran situation, especially in the Strait of Hormuz, unless U.S. power directly deposes the mullahs. I take pause from that. China may not see in the present situation the threat to its security against which it is so vigilant.
ReplyDeleteDr. Waddy from Jack: I have belatedly watched part of your appearance on Fourth Box. I will watch all of it presently.
ReplyDeleteIn it and in your immediately previous blog commentary you said you expected that within, maybe, a month or so, our assault will be over and we will be dealing either with a new regime or the very much militarily deracinated remnants of the atavistic regime of the mullahs.
What do you think our relationship with a surviving but sorely damaged regime might be like?Could Israel responsibly consent to such a perhaps temporary stand down on our part?
Germany in 1945, though on the cusp of shattering defeat, was still able to wield appallingly savage power, both against its citizens and the Allies. A finally viable internal uprising against the Nazis , as seen in France and other countries, did not manifest in Germany. Like the mullahs, the Nazi leadership was ideologically driven to fanatic resistance. Russian casualties in their assault on Berlin were tremendous. Do you see any credibility in that analogy?
Fourth Box continued: Is WWIII consequently possible: I agree with all your views that it is unlikely. Russia, China , (even Iran), surely Japan and us and much of the world's vital interest in seeing free commerce in oil and other necessities makes it appear unlikely. Your opinion as a teacher of military history - that the present clash between our weapons and the Russian and Chinese arms of the Iranians shows a marked superiority of ours, is very significant , I think. That it might give pause to both Russia and China in considering fighting us makes much sense.
Fourth box continued: one view I might advance: China fought us in 1950 in Korea; though they had little air and no naval power then , their ground tactics may still obtain. Those manifested relative disregard for the life of the individual Chinese soldier. Some evidence of its persistence or lack thereof might be found in their war against Vietnam in (I believe) the late '70s but I know nothing about that. The Ukraine War might tend to show that the Russian army 's gross overall brutality is still unabated. Perhaps very authoritarian regimes do not see this as an important factor. Chinese naval and air forces have little modern experience and that would show, I think, against the VERY experienced U.S. military.
Jack, while it's true that occupying and holding Iran's islands would be a lot easier than mixing it up on the streets of Tehran, I still suspect we won't, and it wouldn't be worth the trouble.
ReplyDeleteQuite right: China is getting a vivid object lesson in how its energy supply is entirely dependent on the continuing good will of the U.S. (Navy). Basically, we all want Iranian oil to flow to China, but we Americans also want the Chinese to keep in mind that we can cut them off whenever we please.
Agreed: mass demonstrations aren't a good look when a country is "at war", as the Left keeps insisting we are, but they don't seem to mind it if people assume they're on the other side. Nothing new there.
I should think China is on edge, but it also knows that the whole world wants the oil to flow, and the U.S. is more or less obliged to let it. If I were China, I wouldn't panic, by any means.
What could our relationship with Iran look like, going forward, if the regime survives? That really depends on which part of it survives. It could mellow, or it could become even more militant. It could head fake in one direction, and then move in another. President Trump is more or less saying that we're talking to cooler heads in Tehran, implying that the cooler heads are willing to ditch the hotheads. That would suit us great, but as Venezuela is proving it's not an easy thing to pull off, and may lead to ambiguous results.
If I were Russia OR China, my main takeaway from this conflict would be that the weaknesses of the U.S. are almost all political/social, not military. A direct confrontation with the U.S. military would be imprudent in the extreme!!!