Friends, neoconservative "experts" and deep state mouthpieces, Russophobes all, are taking great pleasure in the recent instability in Russia, which they say highlights the country's "weakness" and presages further advances and advantages for the plucky Ukrainians. We'll see about that last part. So far the Ukrainian offensive has been rather sluggish. The bigger point I wish to make, however, is that instability in Russia is almost certainly not something that we in the West should celebrate, because it is inherently dangerous -- for Putin, yes, but also for the Russian and Ukrainian people, for the region, and for the entire world, including us. What if those Wagner mercenaries had made it to Moscow, and there was carnage in the streets, or a deep division in the Kremlin or the Russian military establishment about how to respond? What if the neocons got their wish and Putin himself was killed and/or overthrown? Who would take over, and, in the period of transition, what forces would control Russia's powerful nuclear arsenal? What guarantees do we have that the hypothetical new leadership in Russia would be any more pacific or rational than Putin himself? Lest we forget, the most plausible scenario for the use of nuclear weapons, either in Ukraine or in a general nuclear war with the West, is one in which the leadership of Russia becomes uncertain, unstable, paranoid, or desperate. That is exactly the scenario into which we are actively pushing Russia -- on the assumption that our Ukrainian proxies will be the beneficiaries, and we fat and happy Westerners have nothing much to worry about, because no one would ever dare to attack us. Well, no one sensible would, but once Russian blood gets boiling, or once effective command and control over Russia's nuclear arsenal disintegrates, all bets are off. The West's collective political and military leadership has been playing with fire in Ukraine since 2014, and they seem incapable of pursuing any strategy there except constant escalation. Can they be deflected from this seemingly suicidal path before it's too late? That's the question of the hour. The answer in my view is: probably not, unless the people of the West wake up, realize how badly mismanaged the Russia-Ukraine situation has been, and take action to demand a shift in our policy. There's no time to waste!
https://www.breitbart.com/news/live-updates-aftermath-of-russian-mercenary-chiefs-armed-rebellion/
Here's a terrific article about how unreal many of the Left's leading concerns are these days. It could have talked more about how the Left imagines that "democracy" is collapsing because of Trumpian "fascism", but the fact remains that it is a wonderfully thorough exposé of the Left's delusions.
For once, I actually agree with what Facebook is doing! Canada's leftist parliament has approved a law that essentially forces social media companies to subsidize the mainstream media in return for linking to its content. Facebook's response? They're going to stop hosting news content altogether -- in Canada. That won't be terribly good for Facebook's business model, one suspects, but it will be even worse for the legacy media, which will no longer be able to count on social media to spread its lies. Hooray!
Finally, for those of you concerned about abortion and the lives of the unborn, President Trump gets a lot of credit on the right for creating the conditions that led to the overturning of Roe v. Wade. That's totally fair. One suspects that any Republican president would have nominated more or less the same SCOTUS justices, but it's Trump who got the job done. Now, to put all this in context, some states have, in the wake of the Dobbs decision, substantially impeded public access to abortion. Others have expanded it. What's the bottom line, in terms of the number of abortions performed? That data has recently become available, and at most it appears that the incidence of abortion in America is down by about 3%. 3%!!! And the Left is claiming that "women's rights" have been utterly demolished and we've reinstated medieval/fascist patriarchy. Well, the truth is that the abortion and the cultural and the legal landscapes in America really haven't changed all that much. I guess that's good news if you enjoy getting abortions in your spare time. If, however, you value the lives of the unborn, the truth is that almost as many fetuses are being killed now as before. What's more, Republicans are wringing their hands and wondering about whether to "outlaw" (ineffectually, as it turns out) abortion at six weeks, or fifteen, or some other magic number. Very few of them are trying to outlaw abortion altogether, which, if you really believe that the fetus is a living human being, seems like the only humane approach, no?
Dr.Waddy from Jack: Well said, well said. We have blithely played with fire (nuclear fire?) ever since we decided to encourage Ukraine to apply for Nato membership. In doingso we have presented Russia with an unendurable strategic threat to its security and an affront to this proud and rugged nation no Russian leader can countenance.Why have we done it?
ReplyDeleteOther than weakening what now appears to be an already less than mighty Russia, I ask the "why" question frequently as well.
DeleteCould it be as simple as their rich rare earth mineral resources? (https://www.businesstoday.in/latest/world/story/are-ukraines-vast-natural-resources-a-real-reason-behind-russias-invasion-323894-2022-02-25)
Dr. Waddy from Jack: Hubris! Not content with Russia's astonishing retreat from Eastern Europe to its very borders, we ventured to invest a nation geographically and historically of incalculable importance to Russia in an obviously antiRussian alliance.One is reminded of Macarthur's plan to advance to the Yalu and perhaps beyond, after having saved S.Korea.
ReplyDeleteDr.Waddy from Jack: What's to do? Realize we have done a serious wrong which we MAY yet alleviate by giving Russia credible assurance that we will never vote for Ukrainian memhership in Nato.
ReplyDeleteDr. Waddy from Jack: Surely the addition of the hard fighting and favorably located Finns and Swedes plus Russia's poor performance in Ukraine should convince us that Nato is conventionally superior. As it was, the Rus had never attacked Nato anyway. That gives us a face saving out; yes, they are on the ropes but remember what Ali did when he came off the ropes against Foreman."We are plainly stronger now than ever and we know you know it .We don't need Ukraine in Nato; if you'll get out of Ukraine we will agree not to admit it to Nato, though we will not countenance any future invasion of that ravaged land; for God's sake spare them, you have made your point!"
ReplyDeleteRichie from Jack:Vital natural resources are very often a casus belli. The Chinese are very interested in Russia's oil but I doubt they will fight for it. If Russia is willing to fight for Ukraine's resources then perhaps they would see them as an extra benefit(?)But this would seem not equal as a motive to a Russian outrage over Ukraine in Nato which was fully predictable.
ReplyDeleteDr.Waddy from Jack: Thanx for the info on abortion. Politicsas the "art of the possible is well exemplified by this fundamental conflict. For now we have done most of what our legal system allows with the abortionists in control of the Senate, White House and many states. To the antiamericans, the left:" Don't like being called abortionists? Then step off from reflexively terming us racists and sexists! Ok? Oh. Yeah that's what I thought you'd expectorate! "
ReplyDeleteDr.Waddy from Jack: In making abortion its flagship issue the antiamericans provide us a window into their terribly degraded hearts. The nazis and commies proved that many decent people can , notwithstanding, be induced to fight for profound, radical evil. So it is with those with humane reasons for supporting this sociopathic outrage.Now, those who fight for unlimited abortion, mandate it when they can and publicly CELEBRATE a ghoulish "right" to scald, dismember, crush and tear from nature's most sacred haven, living miniature humans; these actions detine them. These people aspire to rule us!!??Let this be the mountain we fight on to permanently marginalize these hopelessly compromised totalitarian ingrates.
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Jack/Richie -- I too have trouble understanding America's obsession with Ukraine, and I have similar trouble understanding why Russia took as long as it did to assert its dominion over Ukraine. The 2014 coup gave it a perfect excuse to invade, and yet it only nibbled at the edges. It gave Ukraine years and years to build up its forces, and to grow closer to the West, before deciding to go for broke. Maybe the Biden presidency, and Biden's perceived weakness, really does have something to do with it?
ReplyDeleteRare earth materials, eh? That's the first I've heard of it. Theoretically, yes, Ukraine does have some nice stuff worth taking, but, in this day and age, why take it, rather than simply buying it -- or, easier yet, buying its politicians (who are manifestly for sale)? Curious.
I tend to agree with you, Jack, that Western hubris is the single biggest factor in the present conflict, and in sustaining and escalating it ad infinitum. Part of me thinks that a definitive Russian victory in Ukraine would at least teach the West a valuable lesson: we DON'T rule the world, much as we might like to, and we aren't likely to start, given our unwillingness to fight for it (or anything else).
True, Jack, the pro-life movement has done what it can politically. But conservatives HAVE NOT done what they can culturally. We have ceded education, entertainment, the media, and now even corporate America to the Left, assuming that the political kingdom alone can keep us and Western Civilization safe. Fat chance!
Dr.Waddy from Jack: Ukraine: "remember Hitler's expansionism" is a maxim much urged in condemning Putin. His brutal neo WWII methods are rightly excoriated but his motivation for decisive action remains not territorial adventure or a romantic reenactment of Peter the Great. He was forced into a corner and being Russian he reacted with bear like ferocity. You don't poke a maddened bear unless you relish facing a roaring,harrowing combo of hide, teeth, claw and strength determined to do you much hurt.
ReplyDeleteDrWaddy fromJack: Yeah you might be able to stop it but why blithely hazard its vindictive onslaught anyway?
ReplyDeleteDr.Waddy from Jack: I think Russia was, all along, resolved to march as soon as it was convinced that Nato inUkraine was imminent. But it is very plausible that Kumbayaa Biden's weakness settled that hash. Russians are badasses; they sense pusillanimity.
ReplyDeleteJack, in my humble opinion experts and laymen alike way overutilize the analogy of Hitlerian tyranny/aggression. As you suggest, Putin isn't Hitler. He had specific reasons for this instance of aggression, which are unlikely to be repeated in Poland, or Estonia, or Finland, or Georgia, or anywhere else. Now, if Russia had rolled to an easy victory in Ukraine, it might have been tempted to reprise the performance. The Russians are vulnerable to hubris, just like the rest of us.
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