Friends, we abandoned the gold standard (by which the dollar was exchangable for gold) back in 1971, but let's not waste time reconsidering that decision. Today I want to draw your attention to the fact that the Dutch have decided to move a lot of their gold reserves from the U.S. and Canada to the U.K. Big deal, you say? (Meaning that it's actually a small deal...) Well, yeah, in itself it doesn't mean much, but we can't deny the fact that international confidence in the U.S. political system, and by extension our economic system, is flagging. The U.S. dollar is still the reserve currency, but the world's appetite for dollars, and for U.S. government bonds, is dwindling. To some degree that was always inevitable, but on the other hand the reign of DJT, and the contempt that most of the world holds him in, is relevant, because it accelerates the decline of American economic hegemony. Don't get me wrong: in many ways, the U.S. economy is strong and is even the envy of the world. Despite this, we shouldn't kid ourselves: possessing the global reserve currency allows us to live far higher on the hog than would otherwise be the case. We can spend like drunken sailors because the world has decided that we're "good for it". Slowly but surely, the world is reconsidering. That matters. Someday, it may matter a whole lot more than it does today.
https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cvgy51xlz39o
But there's hope! Countries can lose their economic hegemony without falling into terminal decline, and even without severe economic trauma. The U.K. is a good case in point. The British used to rule the seas, and more importantly they had the world's reserve currency: the pound. That was all terrific, until the cost of two world wars, and the meteoric rise of two superpower competitors, made Britain a second rate power. The standard of living of the British people, however, continued to rise, and, quite wisely, the British hitched their wagon to the American star, and all was well. Anyway, on to the "hope" part: Elon Musk says that, in the near future, A.I. and robots will cause a spectacular, unprecedented rise in the productivity of the American and the world economies. I believe he's right. The timescale can be debated, but very fundamental changes are coming that will make life easier and more prosperous for almost everyone. This may well make a "soft landing" for the USA a lot simpler. I sure hope so.
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