Friends, something interesting has happened on the road to the White House in 2024. Previously, almost all polls had shown that, if you added RFK, Jr., Cornel West, and Jill Stein into the presidential mix, Trump's standing vis-a-vis Biden either stayed the same or improved. In other words, polls agreed that, the more candidates were in the race, the better Trump's chances of victory. In the past several days, however, two polls have appeared showing the opposite: Biden benefitting from the addition of the extra candidates. What gives? Well, first of all, two polls are less definitive than the dozens of polls that show something different. We shouldn't get too excited about two polls. Second, in ALL the relevant polls the national race is essentially a statistical dead heat, with no candidate enjoying a lead outside the margin of error. Third, we should recall that it simply doesn't matter who wins the national popular vote. It's who wins the swing states that will determine who will be our next president, and, so far, Trump enjoys a slight edge in almost all the swing states. So all these provisos may bring you some cheer, BUT there's no denying that recent polls show brighter prospects for Biden, and they complicate our -- well, my -- assumption that a large field of candidates benefits Trump by splitting the anti-Trump vote. RFK, Jr. may well be an "X" factor that could work in Biden's favor, or at least he may be doing so now. Why? Partly because the Dems have vast resources -- including a compliant media and billions of dollars -- with which they can excoriate people like RFK, Jr., and they've done exactly that. Therefore, the people that have been bombarded with these anti-RFK messages are mostly leftists, and left-leaning independents, and some of them may now be returning to the Biden fold as a result. Meanwhile, conservatives and Republicans still have a mostly positive view of RFK. They too may, eventually, desert him in favor of Trump, but, at this stage of the game, RFK may be playing the role of spoiler in a way that actually helps Biden. This bears watching! 2024 is a funny year. It's a year in which an historically large number of voters do not want to vote for either of the major party candidates. Most of these "double haters" may end up falling in line, sooner or later, but their profound doubts about Biden and Trump make the outcome of the 2024 election especially hard to forecast. And, just to underline this fact, consider that recent national polls have put Kennedy's support as high as 14% and as a low as 2%! What is one to make of THAT??? Not much, other than this: all polls should be taken with a grain of salt.
RAY TO DR. WADDY
ReplyDeleteI'm beginning to think that the difference between presidential candidates is the difference between shit and more shit.
RAY TO DR. WADDY
ReplyDeleteAll joking with the word shit aside, you are correct that "all polls should be taken with a grain of salt". Related to this is something Bill O'Reilly said recently on his "No Spin News" which indicated that there would be no presidential debates, but that both Biden and Trump would say just about anything they wanted.
Oh, for sure, Ray! The political rhetoric this year will be off the charts in terms of fear-mongering, and the truth will be, as usual, the first casualty. Politicians have never cared for truth anyway. They will say whatever works, or seems to work. The problem is that we've become so cynical that I'm not sure what polemics could move us...
ReplyDeleteRAY TO DR. WADDY
ReplyDeleteAll we can do is hope for the best, and the worst.
Dr. Waddy and Jack: I have discovered the prime factor in this election: Kenedy-Shanahan! Obviously the Irish vote will be decisive. That's how simple the whole thing is. Me self will be after voting for DJT and thinking alot of my even small Irish heritage will too.
ReplyDeleteDr. Waddy from Jack: Well, I see Charles Schumer has expressed a very creditable denunciation of the antisemites squatting at Columbia. That's good, first because he restrained himself from offering the Jewish students avuncular advice like what he gave to Benjamin Netanyahu, a man whose heroic experience and daily life is completely outside the presumptuous comprehension of redoubtable Charles. Now Charles, let's see you mount the steps at Columbia or any other handy "university" where Jews are plainly unwelcome and, as you did on the steps of the Supreme Court when you issued that stirring challenge to the Justices who arrogated to themselves the power to disagree with you, confront these Hamas loving subhumans with equal resolve. Aw c'mon Charles!
ReplyDeleteDr. Waddy from Jack: Shades of Spring, 1970. Why those glorious days:da redolent of tear gas and burning draft cards and recreational treason! Once again, campus after campus explodes as sophomoric omnicience asserts itself with unimpeachable presumptuousness and ingratitude. And, extra keen this time, a stimulating infusion of voluptuary hatred for Israel and Jews." You know, even back in '70 we had Israel marked for execration but we were too busy 'Ho , Ho, Ho Chi Minhing' and of course, expectorating on returning veterans is warm work." Prof. Dershowitz, a man exemplary of the former definition of a neoconservative, one who has been left but who has consequently gone right, said last night that this is just the start. and that these vicious and effete dreamers are the vanguard of Hamas America. Israel, if it ever came in direct contact with these cowards, would light into them with one hand tied behind its back and give them just a hint of the true terror it knows so well and of which they have only smoky visions. Another commentator said that the true object of the execrable hate expressed by these dissembling worker ants is America itself. In this they are as one with the Marxist captured termites of '70, who, as they age, have only this as their signal accomplishment.
ReplyDeleteDr. Waddy from Jack: One big difference this time: no draft to use as a justification for mayhem. "Hell no, we won't go. What, fight for our country? Bummer! Who gives a hoot about world communism? Besides, I'll bet we can dodge this thing and get elected President someday, right Bill?" Gee, maybe it wasn't just the inconvenience of interrupting your life to do your duty by your country; maybe it was just plain low life ingratitude for the unparalleled good fortune of growing up in a stable, prosperous country. But these youthful elitists polluting our once respected "universities" display a perhaps more ominous mien. They want to "fundamentally transform" America into a thing
ReplyDeletethey have devised in bleary smoky conclaves in tawdry dorm rooms. They are pledged to eradicate all imperfection wherever it raises its unforgiveably human head. How? "Why chop it off man!"
. . . these youthful elitists today polluting, , , Jack
ReplyDeleteTrue, Ray: in life it's advisable to hope for the best, plan for the worst, and gird yourself for something even badder!
ReplyDeleteHuh. I hadn't considered that the Kennedy-Shanahan ticket was an all-Irish affair. That's the best argument I've heard so far for why I should vote for Trump! Ha ha.
So what I'm hearing, Jack, is that you love Hamas? Just kidding!!! These demonstrations on college campuses are most interesting. Personally, I don't understand why so many leftists have cottoned on to the Palestinians. Talk about a lost cause! And it's so easy for anyone who defends "Palestine" to be lambasted as an anti-Semite... I do, of course, relish the discomfiture of so many leftists, who feel themselves torn between two PC constituencies. And don't discount the possibility that these internal disputes could scupper the S.S. Lefty in 2024, either. Many of these Hamas-ophiles will probably end up voting for Kennedy, or West, or Stein, or just staying home. Anyway, if you want to rid college campuses of the worst of them, I suggest you start a legion of Western pseudo-intellectual shock troops to head off to Gaza and confront the IDF head-on. I think the Hamas cadres would take very well to the Starbucks set, don't you?