Friday, November 8, 2019

Could a "Leave Alliance" Still Coalesce in the U.K.?

Friends, if you're rooting for Brexit, as I am, then you cannot but be troubled by the current feuding between the Conservative Party and the Brexit Party.  Neither Boris Johnson nor Nigel Farage seem interested in sealing a deal that could increase the chances of a "Leave" majority in the next Parliament.  If such a deal is not struck, then the risk of a Labour or Lib-Dem government rises.  The Conservatives are far ahead in the polls, so they may not be worried...but circumstances can change, and polling shifts. 

This article suggests that a path to a Conservative-Brexit Party alliance still exists.  I believe it.  And I also believe that there could be advantages to both parties in waiting to "spring" such an alliance on unsuspecting voters...  Time will tell.

In other news, there are rumblings coming out of Manhattan to the effect that Mike Bloomberg may be joining the Democratic presidential field.  You wouldn't think a multi-billionaire could be that dumb...  I'm pretty sure there's little appetite among Democratic primary voters for a centrist, New York City titan of industry, but hey -- he might as well give it a go.  My guess is that the only thing he'll succeed in doing is taking even more of the wind out of Joe Biden's sails.  And, if that's the case, I say: Run, Mike, Run!


  1. Dr. Waddy: O'Sullivan's article is impressive and he cites very credible sources. Some thoughts:

    When far more Brexit party voters voted so than did Tory voters in the EU Parliament elections, surely many were Tories who wished who wished their vote to be for Brexit alone. They were, in effect, forming a coalition of sorts. Could that happen again and could it actually result in a clear Brexit party victory and PM Farage? Do you think that conceivable?

  2. Dr. Waddy: I vote Conservative when the candidate is both on the Republican and Conservative lines, because I want my vote to be perceived as Conservative. Is it not possible that many Tories might choose in this election, since it is so critical, to vote Brexit, thereby creating a defacto electoral coalition only and to the devil with the later legislative consequences? Churchill became PM despite profound widespread misgivings, under extraordinary circumstances

  3. Interesting ruminations, Jack. I think the short answer is no, it can't and won't happen, simply because of the trajectory of the Brexit Party in the polls. They were briefly ahead, as you say, in national polls, and buried the Conservatives in the EU vote, but in every poll now they're polling around 10%. That's nowhere close to a winning percentage. Brexit is a big issue, yes, but there are others, and the Brexit Party doesn't have a well-developed philosophy that I'm aware of outside of "Leave, Now!" I'm afraid the most Nigel can hope for is being a spoiler...and that would be worse than useless to his own cause.