Friends, President Trump may never before have pirouetted quite as much as he has in the last few days, and that's because various forces and interest groups are pulling him in a plethora of different directions vis-a-vis the Russia-Ukraine War and how it can be ended. Trump is talking tough, and he's being conciliatory. He's ruling out Ukrainian membership in NATO, and, with the other hand, he's proffering the possibility of U.S. troop deployments to help guarantee Ukraine's independence. Could Ukraine end up with an effective alliance with the West, policed by actual British and French troops, perhaps accompanied by Americans? If so, that would seem like a monumental blow to Russian pride and a major threat to Russia itself. On the other hand, to secure that Western commitment, what would Ukraine be willing to give up, territorially? It's a truly byzantine set of conundrums. Compounding my bafflement is the fact that many of the interested parties probably don't want peace at all, and are quite prepared to keep slugging it out indefinitely. Is there a point, however, where Ukraine or Russia simply can't take any more? Is there a point where Western European powers feel they have to intervene directly in the conflict? Is there a point where Trump, in particular, throws up his hands and walks away? Hey, if I had the answer to any of these questions, I'd share them with you, but, alas, I'm just an informed observer of these world-historical events.
https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cm21j1ve817o
Hindsight is 20/20 vision as the old saying goes. Back in the early 1990s when the Iron Curtain and the Soviet Union collapsed simultaneously, the U.S. missed the golden opportunity to dismantle NATO and exit Europe, and The Middle East. Instead, a long line of damn fool U.S. Presidents, decided to brew new storms in the area, beginning with Desert Storm, followed by the disastrous war in Iraq, and the horrors of the Afghanistan debacle. Billions were spent that could have been spent for our own country. The day is now far spent, with Trump attempting to clean up a mess too huge to even imagine. This includes getting involved in the endless war between Israel and a bunch of nut job Muslims. As long as Trump fails to completely remove the U.S. from NATO and related issues, he will, regrettably, have to pay the piper by getting involved in even more hopeless situations, while secretly think that he will get a Nobel Peace Prize to feed his enormous ego.
ReplyDeleteRAY TO DR. WADDY
ReplyDeleteThe above comment/post, "Hindsight is 20/20 vision................" is mine.
Dr. Waddy from Jack: I would think American boots on the ground even in Western Ukraine would be very disagreeable to Russia.So its notable that, according to the WSJ article, President Trump would consider U.S. "support" for European troops providing security for Ukraine's independence. That implies less military engagement for the U.S. Still, I'd rather see us fully disengaged from that hotspot. Participation in Nato, outside of what Russia considers its hinterland and its historical
ReplyDeleteorigin, is more than enough for us, aside from our burgeoning economic relationship with Ukraine, which does lend a kind of security to Ukraine.
The apparently one nonnegotiable factor in this conflict is Russia's refusal to countenance Ukrainian membership in Nato and President Trump has publicly vetoed that , as we, or Estonia, have the nominal power to do. That may open some doors.
I think Ukraine can finally give up on Crimea and use that as a bargaining chip. It was their's only by a gesture on the part of the USSR in the 1950s. It was nothing upon which a historical claim can be made.
Dr. Waddy from Jack: Yes, I think there could come a point where the President must simply disengage us from this conflict and let the Europeans , Russia and Ukraine hassle it out. I think its unlikely as the process initiated in Alaska appears promising.
ReplyDeleteI'm not not discouraged by what sometimes appears to be waffling (eg. on sanctions) on the part of our President. He is apparently an expert negotiator and mediator and give and take is no doubt vital in such efforts.
I haven't seen it yet but I think it likely that if Ukraine gives up land peopled mostly by ethnic Great Russians that comparisons to Munich in 1938 may be drawn by critics seeking more ways to denigrate our President. There are similarities but many differences too. Trump = Chamberlain is unsupportable I think.
Dr. Waddy from Jack: As you know , it was reported today that President Trump has said American troops will not be deployed to Ukraine. That is a very positive step forward. If our President does broker a peace, we must go as far as is possible to get clear of this European problem. Involvement in it is not in our national security interest.
ReplyDeleteSo what would the effect be of some kind of Western "security guarantee( against Russian military advance) for Ukraine? If Putin's putative long term purpose has been to extend Russia's sphere of influence, might not such an arrangement set a roadblock in its way? Remember how objectionable many Soviet military leaders considered the Western tripwire garrison in Berlin? It might have been one of the reasons for the Soviet overreach which produced the Cuban Missile Crisis. Were Putin to accept it would he survive in office? But perhaps his Generals do not share his "expansive" dreams? Reestablishment of any significant influence for Russia in any Eastern European country now in Nato is probably next to impossible.
After 1 million casualties in the war, Russia may be most willing to accept the thereby preserved integrity of their national border from any further Nato incursion as a grimly acceptable result .
Dr. Waddy from Jack: Its reported today that Oklahoma plans written testing of all applicants, from NY or CA, for public teaching jobs in Oklahoma, for far left, DEI convictions. Cannot blame a common sense state for protecting its children from the biases which may well dominate in products of NY or CA teacher's colleges or school library degree programs.
ReplyDeletePres. Trump ,by attacking DEI in the Federal Government, may well have inspired an extensive and strong reaction to forced far leftist indoctrination of our youth in other settings. The far left's proven incipiently totalitarian efforts at intimidation of all who disagree with it must be met with absolute intolerance. NY and CA should be increasingly isolated and our country should protect itself from their malign influence much as an oyster does against foreign objects within its shell. The radicals are blithe to advocate such shunning of Israel; let them "feel" the wrath their bigoted malice deserves .
It may be that testing such as Oklahoma favors cannot always reveal the far left convictions of teaching candidates who are dishonest on the test. But let it serve at least as a warning that attempted indoctrination of students with such convictions will not be tolerated.
Good for Oklahoma; let's have more of this as we take our country back.
I live in Kansas. So glad Oklahoma is nearby.
DeleteRay, I happen to agree with your analysis of U.S. interventionism, and not for the first time. We had a golden opportunity to disengage from Europe in particular in the 90s, and we should have taken it. Our involvement in the Middle East is also increasingly unnecessary/counterproductive, since we don't need their oil anymore anyway. Having said all this, if we had disengaged, no one can say for sure that awful, terrible, dreadful things would or wouldn't have happened. If we stepped back, that would create a vacuum, and we all know that nature abhors a vacuum... Europe, though, I'm confident can manage its own affairs and achieve its own security. So it should.
ReplyDeleteJack, I'd say it's clear that Ukraine isn't getting in NATO, and that it isn't getting Crimea back, but unfortunately those are about the ONLY things that are clear, at this stage.
Would Trump abandon Ukraine to its fate, or at least to European oversight? He's implied as much, but it would be a major, substantive step towards forcing the Europeans to "grow up". It would be a bold move. I hope he takes it.
What's the minimum that Russia will accept, in terms of Western involvement in Ukraine? I dunno, but that calculus may have changed in the last three years, given the high costs that Russia has borne. Any dreams of marching into Tallinn or Warsaw probably seem far-fetched now!!!
The Oklahoma case is a most interesting one, and I thank you for bringing it to my attention. Weeding out woke schoolteachers is a noble endeavor, so, if a test can help achieve it, I say: go for it! BUT...why test only candidates from California and New York??? Wokeness is everywhere, and, one could argue, any graduate of a teachers' college is a presumptive wokester. I would also be skeptical of the ability of a short test to detect wokeness. There might be better ways to evaluate the fairness and reasonableness of a job applicant's worldview.
Dr. Waddy from Jack: Perhaps it would be best to tell prospective teachers that the TEACHING of wokeness would be grounds for termination, regardless of tenure and then enforce the warning, since it would of course be resisted by dreamy idealists.
ReplyDeleteDr. Waddy from Jack: States could also put certain teacher's colleges and departments or school library programs on notice that their programs have raised considerable concern as to their apparent devotion to far left, woke principles and the consequent devotion of their graduates to the same.
ReplyDeleteStates could also express such concerns to the Accreditation associations the approval of which is vital for any degree program or college or "university" . Eventually the word might get out that such degraded programs are not worth attending - that their degrees are honored in increasingly few educational systems.Such scorn and con sequent defunding could even move such left wing indoctrination camps to change their stripes.
Dr. Waddy from Jack: So, the "unheard of "decision to arm the National Guard troops in DC has been made. And of course, those who wish to continue allowing ,enabling and even encouraging vicious, heartless criminals to reign in our very capitol, are outraged!
ReplyDeleteCan't blame 'em I guess. They would be loath to see their darlings confronted with (gasp) lethal force. No matter to them that the thugs they routinely apologize for have been freely and unapologetically using murderous force against the lawful ,on city streets, for ever so long.
Our armed forces are empowered to defend our country against all enemies, foreign or domestic. That of course includes the use of necessary lethal force.
Now also being publicly considered by President Trump is the declaration of a national emergency to enable the continuation of National Guard backup for the DC police beyond the 30 day limit on the present. deployment. An indefinite period of such strengthened enforcement is absolutely vital . Otherwise criminals will simply wait out this temporary cramping of their style. The decision to extend must be put in process promptly , either by Congressional approval (provided the Congressional RINOS choose to cooperate) or, failing that, a Presidential declaration of National Emergency giving him the authority to keep the National Guard on the job. That is needed to ensure no relief for the criminal horde from their new ordeal .
Some on the far left express the fear that President Trump is forcefully imposing a dictatorship., especially since he is now openly talking about extending this measure to crime ridden Dem run hellholes like Chicago, NYC and San Francisco. They ought to know about dictatorship since its always been their intention. But their fears are disingenuous and ridiculous. They just don't want to be beaten to it by their arch enemy, common sense America! They should stop sweatin' it; there won't be a dictatorship but there IS going to be a lot less crime and those who apologize for criminals are going to get real lonely in our polity.
Yes, it's the active indoctrination of students in wokeness that is the real problem...but is also hard to define and thus "correct".
ReplyDeleteJack, the defunding (and de-accreditation) of especially woke teachers' colleges would probably be one of the best single contributions we could make to the revival of this country!!! I would make it priority one.