Calculated Risk

 

Friends, let's be clear: Iran is retaliating against Israel and America's attacks mainly by striking back against...the whole world, not its battlefield foes.  What I mean is that Iran is doing its best, not just to pepper the whole region with missile and drone strikes, but also to close the Strait of Hormuz to all maritime traffic, thus dealing a body blow to the global economy.  And yet, somehow, most of the world doesn't mind at all.  In fact, it roots for Iran, just to spite the Zionists and MAGA!  Well, that's pretty dumb, but I would also like to draw your attention to an important fact: the Strait is not completely closed, and, to the extent it is, that is only because most of the world knows that, for weeks if not months, it can dispense with Gulf oil without serious consequence.  If the world was desperate for what the Middle East has to offer, after all, NATO, Japan, China, et al. would be helping us open the Strait.  I mean, it would be suicidal for them to do anything else.  The fact that they aren't tells us that all the handwringing over this "war" is mostly for show, at least at this stage.  I conclude that the Strait is only "closed" because, right now, no one minds greatly that it is.

 

https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c4geg0eeyjeo 

 

Want more cogent analysis of our hostilities with Iran?  Listen in to the "Fourth Box" podcast, featuring Yours Truly as honored guest!

 

https://rumble.com/v770a3a-history-professor-nick-waddy-on-the-war-in-iran.html 

 

Finally, now that DJT has made us all rich (thanks to strong economic growth and a buoyant stock market), we can throw a bit of our filthy lucre at the upcoming Trump coin...in gold, no less!  Of course, any image of Trump has a value that's beyond price...

 

https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cwywxvgynr2o 

Degrading the Degraded

 

Friends, today our Director of National Intelligence, Tulsi Gabbard, assured us that, while the Iranian theocratic regime remains "intact", it has been "largely degraded" by the furious pace of Israeli and U.S. airstrikes.  Well, I should think so!  We're aiming, of course, not merely to degrade this odious dictatorship, but to overthrow it, and in that regard we have to be disappointed at this stage of the operation.  Regime opponents haven't risen up and seized control of even a small part of the country.  I remain hopeful that they will, but we have to face the possibility, even the probability, that, when we wind down our offensive, the mullahs will still be in power.  That would stink, but we can, and probably should, look on the bright side: Iran's capacity to be a regional nuisance (and worse!) will be substantially reduced, one way or another.  Perhaps this is why Trump supporters, conservatives, and Republicans remain broadly supportive of U.S. operations against Iran.  There is much talk in the mainstream media of MAGA fissures due to Trump's "aggression", but the reality is that Democrats are much more divided over the "war", if indeed we can call it that, than Republicans are.  Many Democrats are big supporters of Israel, and enemies of Islamic fundamentalism, so it's not surprising that they might be skeptical of the doomsaying going on in the media and in elite leftist circles.  Anyway, I expect the political impact of the fighting in the Middle East to be largely transitory.  A month from now, I feel confident that the airstrikes will be over, and either we'll be dealing with a new Iranian leadership, or we'll be dealing with the tottering remains of the old one.  Either way, the world, and America, and Trump, can get back to business as usual.  Of course, what is "normalcy" these days???

 

https://www.breitbart.com/national-security/2026/03/18/dni-tulsi-gabbard-iranian-regime-appears-to-be-intact-but-largely-degraded/ 

 

https://www.breitbart.com/politics/2026/03/17/tremendously-popular-polls-maga-gop-overwhelmingly-back-trumps-iran-op-epic-fury/ 

An Inferno of Their Own Making

 

Friends, the Iranian Revolutionary Guard is pretty excited about the fact that it was able to set fire to two oil tankers transporting Iraqi oil, but it should think twice, in my humble opinion.  First, because the only reason Iraq is striking third parties, like Iraq and the Gulf States, is because its ability to kill Americans and Israelis, and to do serious damage to our militaries and infrastructure, is basically nil.  It's striking the only targets available to it, therefore.  The other reason why Iran should be careful what it wishes for, when it launches these scattershot attacks, is that, while the Western media may celebrate every time an Iranian missile finds its target, because our brave journalists hate Trump a whole lot more than any Ayatollah, the Iraqis, and the Qataris, and the Kuwaitis, and the Saudis feel rather differently.  They're the ones with missiles raining down on their heads!  The Iranians are doing a pretty fine job, therefore, of justifying our "aggression" against them.  What's more, as long as they keep firing missiles and drones, they oblige us to continue our efforts to suppress them, meaning no rest for the mullahs!  Ergo, I would advise the Iranian hardliners to enjoy the little fires they manage to light out in the Gulf, because they will be dwarfed by the massive conflagrations that we unleash in their backyard.  Take that! 

 

https://www.breitbart.com/middle-east/2026/03/12/dramatic-explosions-as-iran-attacks-oil-tankers-in-persian-gulf/ 

Saving the SAVE Act?

 

Friends, John Cornyn, who is in the fight of his life to hang on to his Senate seat, has just made a big about-face: he's decided he will accept limits on the filibuster in order to get the SAVE Act passed, which would mandate voter ID throughout the country.  Will this dramatic turn of events save the SAVE Act?  Not necessarily, because overturning the filibuster is darn tough, but maybe the Republican Senate can finesse the issue, i.e. keep the filibuster but drill a few more holes in it?  We shall see.  One thing is fairly clear: Cornyn's real objective is to save himself...from Ken Paxton, his formidable challenger.  Paxton has cannily offered to concede the primary election to Cornyn if the SAVE Act gains Senate passage.  Now, would the bill have the sweeping implications for U.S. elections that Republicans and Democrats seem to assume it would?  I mean, the GOP acts as if the bill is a magic bullet that can eliminate fraud and basically kneecap the Democratic Party.  The Dems, by contrast, talk as though the bill will make it virtually impossible for women and minorities to vote.  Voter ID has done nothing of the kind anywhere that it's been passed, but no matter.  I suspect both parties are engaging in more than a little hyperbole, but the only way to know for sure is...to pass the bill!  Why not?  It would be a fun experiment!

 

https://nypost.com/2026/03/11/opinion/sen-cornyn-why-the-save-act-matters-more-than-the-filibuster/ 

The Supreme Leader is Dead -- Long Live the Supreme Leader!

 

Friends, I'm sure we all wish nothing but the best for Iran's new "Supreme Leader", Mojtaba Khamenei!  May his reign be as glorious as it is brief.  All kidding aside, U.S. and Israeli strikes against Iran's leadership and high value military sites are going great, so much so that DJT claims that our "short-term excursion" there is nearly finished, but I must say what I haven't seen are mass demonstrations against the regime, OR any cities falling to the resistance, OR major elements of the security forces defecting to the opposition and pleding their fealty to the Shah, or Trump, or any figure of equivalent marvelousness.  Long story short: the regime of the mullahs remains very much intact, and so the time for gloating has not yet come.  President Trump, please take note!

 

https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cwykdn0yn4wo 

 

https://www.breitbart.com/politics/2026/03/09/trump-says-iran-war-is-nearly-complete/ 

Winter is Here!

 

Friends, although lefties and elitist insiders assume that everything Trump does is motivated by greed, arrogance, or stupidity, I take the President at his word that the purpose of our strikes against Iran is to allow the Persian people to rise up and reclaim their freedom and their sovereignty from fundamentalist tyrants.  Will it work?  That's hard to say, but it's one of the main topics on this week's Newsmakers show.  Don't miss out!  Brian and I also discuss relations with Venezuela, tariff refunds, the vacuity of leftist claims that we live in a "dictatorship", the harm that illegal immigration does throughout the Americas, the upcoming Paramount acquisition of Warner Bros., and more!

 

https://wysl.podbean.com/e/newsmakers-3-7-26/ 

ICE Barbie Goes Back in Her Box

 

Friends, today we got the disappointing news that President Trump has decided to fire Homeland Security Secretary Kristi Noem.  I figured it was a bad sign when Trump failed to single out Noem for praise at the State of the Union.  Sometimes I hate being right all the time...  Well, why am I disappointed?  Because every retreat that Trump makes confirms in the minds of Democrats and lefties that they are winning.  Because Trump is naive if he thinks that changing personnel will mitigate the media's and the Left's utter disdain for his immigration policies.  Because Kristi Noem, although she isn't perfect, is basically a victim of her own success.  Crime has plummeted.  The border is secure.  We've deported and otherwise rid ourselves of three million illegal immigrants in one year.  By any objective measure, that's a pretty strong record for Donald Trump's DHS commandant.  But Noem's success made her a favorite target of lefties, and the fact that she's a physically attractive woman to boot -- well, that made her Public Enemy No. 1.  Okay, No. 2.  Anyway, does her firing signal a retreat from Trump's deportation strategy?  Let's hope not, because that really would be a crying shame.

 

https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c2e4v7yvjx8o 

You Can't Please Everyone

 

Friends, good news: the U.S. Senate has declined to place limits on the authority of President Trump to use force against Iran.  Only one Republican -- Rand Paul -- voted to handcuff DJT, while only one Democrat -- John Fetterman -- voted to maintain the President's freedom of action.  Of course, none of these votes matter in practice, because any resolution requiring the President to disengage from hostilities would, we assume, be vetoed by that same president.  Still, it's significant that the Senate is willing to give Trump the benefit of the doubt, for now, since, according to polls, most Americans are not.  I personally take Trump at his word that there will be no extended "war" with Iran, and no U.S. occupation of Iran.  Instead, we are doing our best to facilitate a takeover of the country by secular, moderate elements, although whether such elements will emerge remains to be seen.

 

https://www.ms.now/news/trump-iran-war-powers-senate 

 

President Trump is greatly irritated by Spain's refusal to allow U.S. military forces based in that country to join in hostilities against Iran.  He has threatened, in fact, to place an embargo against all U.S. trade with Spain.  The Europeans naturally regard any such suggestion with horror, and they say that our trade deal with the EU precludes any such action.  Does it?  I dunno, but sooner or later I would advise President Trump to use his power to embargo other countries, because it would be a felicitous demonstration of his executive authority, especially in light of the Supreme Court's decision to impose burdensome restrictions on his ability to use tariffs.  An embargo, needless to say, is a heck of a lot more serious than a mere tariff, and, as long as President Trump retains the ability to embargo our adversaries, he will enjoy enormous leverage in our trade negotations with friend and foe alike.  If all he does is posture and vent, on the other hand, embargoes, or potential embargoes, will frighten no one.

 

https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c93wwq1n542o 

Guns A-Blazin'!

 

Friends, U.S. and Israeli military power is making short work of the mighty Iranian Navy, pictured above back when it was afloat.  Indeed, our military operations are proving extremely successful, but it's the political piece of the puzzle that counts: the formation of an organized, viable opposition movement that can take control of the country and install a new government.  Of course, Rome wasn't built in a day...  Neither was Persepolis.

 

https://www.breitbart.com/politics/2026/03/02/centcom-tehrans-gulf-of-oman-fleet-wiped-out-zero-ships-remain-as-u-s-hits-1250-targets/ 

 

In other news, France is extending its nuclear umbrella, ambiguously but adamantly, over several of its European allies, in a gesture that underlines, as per usual, its pusillanimity.  It's unclear what France is promising to do, or if indeed it would even have the gumption to use nukes to defend itself, and it's extra unclear why this declaration matters when ALL the relevant countries are in NATO, and thus already enjoy a total security guarantee from every NATO member state, including the United States (and France).  Of course, to be fair to the French, NATO's strength and integrity, over the years, has been buttressed by the fact that no one has ever dared challenge it.  The same could be said for France's nuclear deterrent as well.  What we know for sure is that France, and every European country, refuses to deploy even conventional military forces, in miniscule amounts, to defend the people of Ukraine, who they regard as part and parcel of "the West", even if they lack membership in the EU or NATO.  Bottom line: the Europeans' record of fighting (and dying) for their sovereignty and their freedom, at least since 1945, doesn't bear much scrutiny.

 

https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cj4zlnezrl7o 

 

Finally, almost every poll, except this one, agrees that the dastardly Dems have the edge going into the midterms.  The margins matter a great deal, however.  If the Dems squeak by with a slim popular vote majority in the House, they might fail to capture the majority of seats.  If they win by 5 points or more, then even the Republican Senate could be in jeopardy.  Will Iran play a role in determining the outcome?  It's way too early to tell.

 

https://www.breitbart.com/politics/2026/03/02/poll-republicans-surge-in-general-ballot-move-closer-to-defying-history-of-congressional-midterms/ 

Back to the Future?

 

Friends, it appears that President Trump has decided to role the dice!  He's authorized massive, sustained strikes on Iran, with the explicit goal of overthrowing the theocratic regime there.  Will it work?  Your guess is as good as mine.  It's now up the people of Iran to step up to the plate.  I hope they will, and I hope some of their patriotic police and military leaders will help them do it.  The best case scenario might be a caretaker government led by the son of the former Shah, but honestly almost any new faces in the Iranian government are bound to be an improvement on what we've got.  Of course, that's what a lot of Iranians said back in '79 too, and look how that turned out!  There's no question that we're taking a huge risk here, but the potential upside is vast, so I'm glad Trump pulled the trigger.  You can't promise help and then offer none...

 

https://www.bbc.com/news/live/cn5ge95q6y7t