Friends, check out my most recent article, which argues that the U.S./Western obsession with confronting Russia, when China and India are looming much larger as potential future adversaries (or allies?), is a sign of abject foolishness and self-delusion.
The West's Radar Screens Are Tuned to Find Russian Bears and Very Little Else
This week brought news that few Americans will ever hear, because few American news editors will have the imagination to report on it, but which will nonetheless lastingly alter the global balance of power and the arc of world history. The U.N. reports that soon – next year – India will overtake China as the world's most populous country. Both countries will have roughly 1.4 billion inhabitants, compared to just 330 million in the U.S.
There are several reasons why this headline ought to fill Americans with equal parts awe and dread. One is that America, and the West, are currently engaged in a bitter proxy war with Russia, and the Western media and security infrastructure are therefore predictably fixated on addressing threats, both real and imagined, that emanate from the regime of Vladimir Putin.
The simple fact, however, is that Russia has a population of just 147 million. Its economy, even measured according to the more generous PPP (purchasing power parity) methodology, is less than 20% the size of America's. If one were to compare Russia to the combined population, wealth, and industrial resources of NATO, then, Russia is a mere pipsqueak. No surprise, therefore, that the Russian military is struggling to wrestle even a minor power like Ukraine into submission.
The lesson here is, first, that the only way Russia could ever win a conflict with NATO is if NATO countries were too cowardly to fight back (a depressingly realistic prospect, mind you); and, two, Russia is completely incapable of sustaining the role of long-term strategic rival to any of the world's current first-rate powers, including us. Russia is a loose cannon, yes, but it is an obsolete, undersized, poorly aimed cannon, more likely to explode in Putin's face than in ours.
The pusillanimity of the Western elite in the face of China's rise, and despite China's brazen disrespect for international law and global norms, is well known by now. President Biden's mumbled assurances to Taiwan aside, there is little evidence that any Western country has the moxie to upbraid China verbally, much less to take the hard-headed decisions that would be necessary to contain China militarily, diplomatically, economically, or otherwise. Are we ready, then, to tackle the Chinese dragon, should it rear its ugly head in the mid-21st century? Not remotely.
What's more disheartening, however, is that another country, India, has plotted a similar ascent, and Western academics, corporate leaders, journalists, and politicians have barely noticed. India's progress since the early 1990s has been extraordinary, increasing the per capita income of Indians in PPP terms roughly eightfold. India's GDP is now around $12 trillion, half that of the U.S. and climbing quickly. India is, moreover, a functioning democracy with a history of conflict with communist China – seemingly, therefore, an ideal candidate for an alliance with the West aimed at containing future Chinese aggression. India, however, has seen little reason to hitch its wagon to the West's fading star. In fact, in the context of NATO's proxy war in Ukraine, India has actually strengthened its economic ties with Russia – sensing that there is money to be made in the short term, and there is also no discernible Western appetite for butting heads, beyond the current fashion for arms shipments and virtue signaling vis-à-vis Ukraine. India seems to realize that the West's bark is a thousand times worse than its bite.
This leaves us, the United States of America, in a depressingly isolated and steadily weakening position. Two rising great powers, China and India, and one decaying 20th century superpower, Russia, are circling coyly around one another, trying to decide the constellation of forces, friendships, and feuds that will decide the fate of the world in the 21st century. The West, meanwhile, mired in its ossified, Cold War mentality, seems hellbent on projecting its own dwindling might into Eastern Europe, so it can contain an expected Russian armored thrust into Central Europe that, to be sure, seemed plausible in 1949, but looks, to any rational observer, downright fanciful in 2022.
Or, to put it another way, we in the West seem determined to stick our heads in the sand, as the world moves further and further beyond us, and as new powers rise and flex their muscles, some of which we barely recognize, and none of which our bumbling schoolchildren could find on a map.
It's hard to escape the conclusion that, as the West fades into self-imposed irrelevance, the world might actually be better off. That's because at least a few of the powers and leaders that usurp us might have the good sense to see the world for what it is, instead of what the Western ruling elite wishes it to be.
Dr. Nicholas L. Waddy is an Associate Professor of History at SUNY Alfred and blogs at: www.waddyisright.com. He appears on the Newsmaker Show on WLEA 1480/106.9.
And here it is at American Greatness:
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But that's not all! Here's a very intriguing article, by a leftist, about why it's high time that Democrats told the Supreme Court to go screw itself. The rising contempt that many "progressives" have for the Court is, naturally, predictable, and it may eventually lead to a top-tier Democrat, like President Biden, directly and unambiguously defying the Court and denying its legitimacy. We'll see. The other reason the article is interesting, though, is because the author refutes the concept of "judicial review", which, as he points out, does not appear in the Constitution. The Court arrogated to itself the ultimate say over what's constitutional and what isn't, and I personally have some sympathy for the idea that SCOTUS has overplayed the hand that the Framers dealt it. Is the Left's current rejection of the Court's powers entirely self-serving? Sure. That doesn't mean that all of their arguments will be baseless. There are, in fact, legitimate questions to be asked about how powerful the Supreme Court ought to be.
https://prospect.org/justice/the-case-against-judicial-review/
As this article suggests, an enrollment crisis is unfolding in American higher ed, and quite a few colleges and universities may not survive the reckoning that's bearing down on them. One effect of lower enrollments will surely be, as the article says, that outcomes for graduates will become more significant, and students will become more canny in judging which colleges and which degree programs offer the best value for money. Another effect, I fear, is that the traditional liberal arts core of American higher ed will be hollowed out, as more and more students demand career-oriented and "practical" education, in lieu of expanding their skills and knowledge base more broadly. This could be bad news for Western Civ, which is my bread and butter course!
Yet another sign that a recession is impending is record-low optimism among small business owners:
Is loyalty to Trump waning in the GOP, because of the incessant screeching of the January 6th committee? There isn't much polling evidence to support that conclusion.
https://www.newsmax.com/politics/donald-trump-ron-desantis-2024-gop/2022/07/12/id/1078487/
Finally, it may not seem like "news", but, thanks to the James Webb space telescope, our understanding of the universe, and our ability to locate habitable worlds in nearby star systems, are both receiving a major upgrade. Is it time to put a deposit down on a vacation home orbiting Alpha Centauri? Maybe not, but expect some fascinating advances in astronomy in the years ahead, setting homo sapiens up to become an interstellar phenomenon.
RAY HERE I have said this before, but will repeat. The long-range solution in dealing with potential bad guys such as China, Russia, and India, is to strength the hemisphere the U.S. lives in, which is THE WESTERN HEMISPHERE! This means that we need to have far better relations with Mexico, Central America, and South America than we have ever had. We need to IRONCLAD this hemisphere, and let everyone in the whole world know that if they mess with that hemisphere, they will get hurt, badly. Regrettably, that is unlikely to happen, and the U.S. will continue to create endless enemies everywhere. Was there something about the Monroe Doctrine that I have misunderstood?
ReplyDeleteDr.Waddy from Jack : My answer on the leftist' s offering of judicial review as not being mentioned in the Constitution (and presumably being an analagous counter to the reasoning outlawing Roe v. Wade):Marbury vs Madison,which established judicial review, came at a time of seminal development in the new American democratic experiment. It did not generate the unrelenting social unrest clearly attributable to the badly reasoned Roe v Wade and did not result in the deaths of many millions of unborn Americans. Too, Marbury vs Madison has survived over 200 years of very free and active democratic scrutiny.
ReplyDeleteDr. Waddy from Jack: The view of the Webb telescope's present and promised revelation, is for one of my 75 year old generation, one of transcendent wonder! I cannot wait to see an optical view of an exoplanet. This was all of dreams for us of science fiction enjoyment in the '50s. The whole thing since then has been of immeasurable fascination!
ReplyDeleteDr.Waddy from Jack: I stand by my reasoning in comment on your previous post. I do not think a closely connected China, India and Russia necessarily poses us a threat. Prosperity is the best guarantee of the survival of a ruling elite. I think I agree, Russian expansion to the West is unthinkable because of Nato.An inward looking Russia, with its resource rich incredible Siberian vastness; development of that mostly non controversial expanse is their key to peace and the prosperity they deserve after incalculable times of anguish and deprivation! The Rus must be open to consideration of Chinese concern for its historical claimto some of that northern territory but let them work it out with mutually beneficially consideration well short of force.
ReplyDeleteDr.Waddy from Jack: The real America knows that President Trump stands for us: against electoral defeat, against blatantly obvious purely partisan attack, publicly supported by the far leftist MSM, against temporarily enabled official Congressional, dictated as one sided, tasking! We will not abandon him and let you leftists stew in your own juices on that!
ReplyDeleteRay, I like the way you think. Frankly, I don't believe the U.S. has faced a meaningful external threat since the early 19th century. In that sense, our involvement in both world wars was...charity work, as was our participation in the Cold War. We could indeed hunker down in the Western Hemisphere and live perfectly happily. But we won't. Politics is the art of the possible, not the theoretically desirable.
ReplyDeleteJack, I agree 100%: conflict isn't inevitable between any of the current (and future) great powers. Conflict arises from stupidity, more often than not. Failing to respect the natural spheres of influence of your rivals=bigtime stupidity!!!