Wednesday, October 31, 2018
Friends, you won't want to miss my latest interview on the Newsmaker Show with Brian O'Neil. We break down the midterms, the recent spate of pseudo-bombings and actual shootings, the fall of Angela Merkel, the question of "birthright citizenship", and more! Most of all, I scoff at the "big blue wave" that Democrats say is coming... Listen in, why don't you?
Meanwhile, gird your loins for what is sure to be a life-altering experience: a series of FOUR articles that will be published in American Greatness in the coming days. This magnum opus will feature my take on the ravages of "Trump Derangement Syndrome," which is already hobbling most liberals, and which, I firmly believe, is about to become vastly more acute, in the wake of the failure of the "blue wave". I predict exactly how the Dems will react to this massive setback, and how the liberal movement may start to unravel and destroy itself... This is history in the making, and you heard it here first! The articles will come, slow and steady, one per day, starting on Friday. Hold yourselves in readiness!
Sunday, October 28, 2018
Friends, the data continues to accumulate, and things are looking good!
First, let me ask you this: if you had to base your predictions for the midterms on a poll, conducted among several hundred possible voters, and put through a statistical meat-grinder, or on several million actual voters, visiting actual polls, and casting actual votes, which would you choose? No contest, right? Well, we're now in a position to analyze who has voted early in the midterms, and the results are shocking for those who've clung to the false hope of a "blue wave". Republican turnout is surging -- much more so than Democratic turnout. Check out these fascinating analyses, which I hasten to point out do not come from FoxNews, but from left-leaning media organizations:
Both of these articles are fascinating, and they convey somewhat different impressions of the electoral landscape thus far, but the common denominator jumps out at us: neither analysis is indicative of anything like a "blue wave". In fact, some of this information smacks of a "red wave"! To me, the NBC article is more compelling, because it places the figures we have now in historical context. Given the massive turnout in early voting to date, it seems reasonable to compare where we are now to where we were at the same point in 2016, even though that was a presidential election year, and it's clear that, while Democrats held a sizeable edge in early voting in that year (and still lost), now the tables have turned and Republicans have the advantage. Is it possible that the data could be wrong or incomplete? Yes. For instance, these two articles give very different vote totals, and yet they were compiled at roughly the same time. One or the other of them is inaccurate, therefore. More importantly, there are still tens of millions of Americans who haven't voted, and many of whom won't vote until election day. Will they be, as history suggests, mostly Republicans? Don't forget: Mitt Romney won on election day, but he still lost the 2012 election because of early voting... We won't know for sure how things will shake out until all the votes are counted, but in my opinion it's unlikely that well-established patterns will reverse themselves. It's more likely that both Democrats and Republicans are fired up this year -- but Republicans appear to be more fired up. For a Democratic Party already counting its winnings from a "big blue wave," this information isn't just "bad news", it's potentially catastrophic! Stay tuned.
Saturday, October 27, 2018
Friends, after that first initial burst of info from early voting tallies, which showed surprising -- nay, historic! -- strength for the GOP, we haven't heard much from the mainstream media on this issue. You can see why. The "blue wave" narrative is an end in itself, and it can't be undermined, because Democrats have little else going for them. Having said that, some local news outlets are still reporting the news (imagine that!), and in Arizona, a key Senate battleground, the news is all good for Republicans: GOP turnout is way up and outpacing Democratic turnout. We keep hearing that Democrats historically dominate in early voting. Not this year. Does this presage a "Red Wave"? Maybe. I'd like to hope so!
And here's a bonus for you: a RealClearPolitics analysis of the significance of the massive crowds at Trump rallies leading up to the midterms. We keep hearing that Dems are champing at the bit, but if that's true why do they show up in such small numbers to hear their leftist heroes, like Obama and Biden, speak? Mark my words: one take-away from this election will be that Democratic donors and leftist activists were fired up, but that doesn't necessarily translate into big turnout among the rank and file.
Tuesday, October 23, 2018
Friends, good news! The 2018 midterm elections have already happened...inside my head, and the results are in! Republicans won big! To put it another way, the official WaddyIsRight predictions for the midterms (destined soon to be proven RIGHT) are ready and available for your review.
First, take a gander at this article, which oozed out of the odious cesspool that is the NBC newsroom just today. The article is missing an historical analysis of the figures on early voting it provides, but the message is clear: if there's going to be a blue wave, there's no sign of it in the profile of the voters who have already cast ballots. Could NBC be sending a message to its leftist constituency: Be Afraid -- Be VERY Afraid!?!!
And now...on to the predictions. WaddyIsRight is forecasting a win for Democrats in the national popular vote for the House of Representatives. RealClearPolitics puts the average lead for the Dems on the generic ballot at 7.7%, at this moment in time. For reasons I've already disclosed, I believe these figures are exaggerated. I expect the Dems to win the national popular vote by 2-3 points.
WaddyIsRight forecasts that, despite their strong showing in the national popular vote, Democrats will not gain enough seats to take control of the House. They will net approximately 15 seats, leaving the Republicans in control, albeit narrowly. White liberals will turn out in large numbers, helping Democrats to victory in some suburban swing districts. Minorities and young people will vote in disappointing numbers, dooming the Democratic effort to turn the House blue. Republican turnout will be robust across the board.
WaddyIsRight predicts a Republican pickup of four seats in the Senate. This is greater than the current forecast of RealClearPolitics, which shows the Republicans netting only two seats. The lead currently possessed by several Democratic Senate candidates is very small, though, and, since I believe the polls are stacked in the Dems' favor, some of these close contests will go the Republicans' way. Critical competitive races include: Montana, Nevada, Arizona, Missouri, Indiana, West Virginia, and Florida. Most of these races are pickup opportunities for Republicans.
Democrats will do somewhat better at the state level, where they will pick up five or more governorships, and at least ten state legislative chambers. Nonetheless, most state legislatures, and most governorships, will remain in Republican hands. The top two Governor's races from the WaddyIsRight perspective -- in Georgia and Florida -- will be won by the GOP.
There you have it! The much-ballyhooed blue wave will be more like a blue ripple, and Republicans, fired by enthusiasm for Trumpism, prosperity, the rule of law, immigration sanity, an America First trade policy and foreign policy, and by the timeless concepts of basic human decency and mutual respect (so often violated by irate leftists in recent months), will struggle to an historic victory.
Stay tuned, therefore, for an analysis of the aftermath to this Trumpian triumph. How will the Left react to yet another stunning defeat? Spoiler alert: it won't be pretty!
Monday, October 22, 2018
Friends, both parties are in the sprint to the finish line in 2018, and it's getting ugly out there! This week Brian O'Neil and I break down the midterms, and we cover all the hot button topics in the news -- even the question of table manners when dining with the Senate Majority Leader... Don't miss it!
Friday, October 19, 2018
Friends, although I'm well aware that I have legions of adoring fans in every corner of the globe, many of you hail from Western New York, as I do. Thus, you will know that there is an increasingly hotly contested Congressional race in the 27th district, between sitting Congressman Chris Collins, a Republican and a Trump-supporter, and Nate McMurray, the Democrat and a crypto-liberal who says as little as possible about his leftist views, so as to fool the good people of Western New York into voting for him. Because Congressman Collins is currently under indictment, unfortunately victory is not assured for the good guys in this race. My latest article endorses Collins and calls on the people of Western New York to rally to his cause. Do you want a Nancy Pelosi speakership? Do you want President Trump to be impeached for...offending snowflake liberals who believe he never should have been elected in the first place? If your answer to these questions is no, then don't sit on the sidelines. Vote for Chris Collins, and, if you can, contribute to his campaign, encourage your friends to vote for him, or pound the pavement and help to mobilize the Republican base. If we make a maximum effort, we can win this race (handily) and many others besides...
Here's the article in Townhall:
Thursday, October 18, 2018
Friends, there are about a thousand and one reasons not be a leftist, but topping my list is this gem: liberalism is such a downer. According to most liberals, we are living in the very worst of times: Trumpian tyranny, income disparity, police brutality, sexism and racism run amuck, environmental emergency -- you name it and we're knee deep in it, or so they say. As you and I know, however, we're darn lucky to live in the good ole USA at the beginning of the 21st century, in the freest, most prosperous, and most dynamic society that has ever existed. Moreover, most of the blights on civilization perceived by leftists are either phony, exaggerated, or both. Today I bring you more good cheer, to counteract the doom-saying that the Left is constantly engaged in.
First, check out this article, which deconstructs the leftist assumption that climate change is responsible for all inclement weather, and the weather, by and large, is destined to get infinitely worse. In fact, even though global temperatures have risen in recent decades, life for most people has gotten much, much better, especially in the Third World, and those trends are set to continue. It's a very intriguing and well-supported analysis:
In addition, you may want to ponder Rush Limbaugh's predictions for the midterm elections. He discounts the "blue wave" polls, and he forecasts instead an expanded Republican majority in the Senate as well as a House of Representatives that remains in responsible GOP hands. My predictions, which are coming soon, are very similar. And, in any event, the worst case scenario for Republicans is that we lose the House...and Democrats tie themselves in knots for the next two years, trying to decide who to impeach. That wouldn't be the end of the world. In any case, here is what Rush has to say:
So, you see, we don't live in the worst of all possible worlds, after all. Quite the contrary!
Wednesday, October 17, 2018
Friends, remember when the media DIDN'T dismiss Kanye West as a rambling mental patient? Sure, that was back before he became a Trump-supporter... It's clear that the Left is running scared. They're attacking anyone, especially minorities and women, who are fleeing the sinking ship that is the Democratic Party. So be it. The proof is in the pudding, and this November we have an opportunity to deal what could be a deathblow to modern liberalism. Onward to victory, I say! All this and much more is featured in this week's Newsmaker Show interview, featuring yours truly and Mr. Brian O'Neil. Don't miss it!
Friday, October 12, 2018
Friends, the reliability of the polling data supplied by the mainstream media has come under question, well, forever, but especially since their massive errors in 2016. My latest article asks the question: how believable are the predictions of a "blue wave" in November, based on the allegedly scientific and objective data on which these predictions are made? It turns out that polling is an art, not a science, and there is ample reason to question whether the GOP's collective goose is as cooked as the Left wants us to think... Read on, and be comforted by my analysis, which is coming soon to the virtual pages of American Greatness!
Consider the Source: Polls Predicting a “Blue Wave” Are Not Reliable
Republicans are understandably distraught when they hear the mainstream media endlessly repeating the mantra that there will be an historic “blue wave” in the November midterm elections. President Trump's allegedly incompetent and borderline-tyrannical misrule of the rightfully indignant American people will produce a suitable backlash, we are told: Democrats will surely take the House, and possibly the Senate. Will the Republican Party even survive this shellacking? The verdict is out.
This narrative is supported by polling conducted on behalf of major news organizations. CNN's latest poll, conducted October 4th-7th, is a good case in point. It claims that, in the “generic ballot” question that asks whether likely voters are inclined to support the Democratic or Republican candidate for the House of Representatives in their local district, Democrats hold a massive 13-point edge: 54-41%. Wow! Truly, the race is over, if this poll is to be believed, and Republicans are the losers par excellence. Or is it that simple?
When one drills down to the particulars in the CNN survey, one finds myriad reasons to doubt its accuracy. For one thing, it forecasts a “gender gap” of unprecedented proportions: it finds that 63% of female likely voters will back the Democrats, compared to only 45% of men. Although it is normal for women to be more supportive of Democratic candidates than men, the size of the discrepancy seldom exceeds 10 points. This is suspicious.
Even more damning to the reliability of the poll is its prediction that voters over 65 will favor Democrats by 18 points! This is in the realms of pure fantasy, given that older voters have consistently favored Republicans in recent years, and in 2016 they voted for Republican House candidates over Democrats 53-45%. A “blue wave” might, in the most optimistic scenario, mean that Democrats would tie Republicans among older voters, but the notion that they could win this demographic in a landslide is an absurdity.
The CNN poll is equally dubious when it comes to race. In 2016, according to exit polls, white voters favored Republican House candidates by 22 points: 60-38%. But in 2018 CNN predicts Republican House candidates will win the white vote by only 1 point. Nonsense.
There are deeper reasons, however, to mistrust the CNN poll and others like it. Above all, we should consider the history of polling, and how frequently individual polls, and even the average of polls, can be wrong.
It's no secret that in 2016 the polls predicted that Hillary Clinton would be our next President, and yet here she is in 2018 – a private citizen, albeit an outspoken one. What is more interesting, for our purposes, is that, also in 2016, many polling organizations were asking the usual “generic ballot” question of voters: in their district, would they prefer the Democratic or the Republican candidate for the House of Representatives? Based on the RealClearPolitics average of major polls, at no point in the 2016 election cycle (May to November) did Republicans have a lead on this question, and yet Republicans won the national popular vote for the House by one point and maintained control of the chamber. Let that sink in. Polling averages generally favored the Democrats by 3 to 5 points, they never favored the Republicans, and yet the Democrats still lost. How could this be?
The answer is, in part, that there are, included within these national polling averages, bogus polls like CNN's monstrosity predicting a 13-point win for Democrats. By no means is this the first time that CNN has overrated Democratic strength. In 2006, the last time there truly was a “blue wave,” Democrats won the national popular vote for the House by 8 points. Nonetheless, the last CNN generic ballot poll showed Democrats winning by 20 points! That's a large discrepancy, to say the least.
CNN polls are not always this wrong, of course. In 2016, the last CNN poll of the generic ballot question favored Democrats by 3 points, whereas Republicans won the national popular vote by 1 point. Thus, CNN was in the tank for Democrats only to the tune of 4 points. An improvement from 2006, therefore, but still a poor reflection on the accuracy (or lack thereof) of CNN's polling operations.
The potential for CNN, and other major news organizations, to misconstrue, or even deliberately misrepresent, the leanings of the electorate is vast. One has to wonder: how many CNN reporters and pundits would be willing to bet their annual salary on the notion that Democrats will win the popular vote in House races this year by 13 points? Not many! One suspects that the 13-point number is, in fact, not designed to be predictive at all. It is instead designed to shift the narrative – to make news, rather than report it – and to encourage Democrats while discouraging Republicans.
CNN's latest whopper continues a trend in recent polling, as polling averages routinely overrate Democratic strength. In 2014, for instance, the RealClearPolitics polling average for the generic ballot question ended up favoring Republicans over Democrats by 2 points, but Republicans won the national popular vote by 6 points. CNN was even less accurate than the national average, needless to say. In its last poll of that cycle, it favored the Democrats by 1 point.
In the final analysis, what does all this mean? Polls are far from useless, but the American people should exercise caution and discretion in interpreting them. They should also keep in mind that recent polling by major news organizations evinces a consistent bias in favor of Democrats.
If, therefore, the current RealClearPolitics average for the generic ballot question puts Democrats up by 7 points, then this result is likely skewed by garbage polls like CNN's. History suggests that the Democrats' edge is likely more modest: say, 3 or 4 points. That small advantage, which is certainly liable to additional shrinkage, may well be insufficient to put the House of Representatives in Nancy Pelosi's gnarled hands.
It's possible, moreover, that even that 3- or 4-point edge is illusory. Rasmussen Reports' latest poll has Democrats and Republicans tied at 45% on the generic ballot question. And Rasmussen, lest we forget, was the most accurate polling organization in 2016, predicting Hillary Clinton's narrow 2-point victory in the popular vote. If Rasmussen is right again, then in 2018 Republicans might do more than stave off disaster. They might actually win!
The takeaway? CNN wants Republicans to despair in the lead-up to the 2018 midterm elections, but the evidence says...not so fast!
As always, reports of the death of the GOP are greatly exaggerated.
Dr. Nicholas L. Waddy is an Associate Professor of History at SUNY Alfred and blogs at: www.waddyisright.com. He appears weekly on the Newsmaker Show on WLEA 1480.
And here is the American Greatness version:
And here is the American Greatness version:
Thursday, October 11, 2018
Friends, it's become increasingly obvious that there's very little that unites Democrats, except a loathing for Donald Trump and Republicans, and a desire to "make right" what happened (inexplicably!) in 2016. I recommend to you this article, which discusses the fragile nature of the "blue wave" we've heard so much about, and more importantly discusses what calamities may befall the Left if that blue wave doesn't materialize. For now, the crazies and socialists in the Democratic Party are willing to tolerate the leadership of the establishment...but if there's no blue wave? Then, all hell will break loose, and the consequences will be historic, mark my words. I agree with this fellow on one thing, above all: the 2018 election is massively important!!! Don't be caught napping.
Wednesday, October 10, 2018
Friends, during my latest appearance on the Newsmaker Show, hosted by Brian O'Neil, we cover all the latest developments with Judge Kavanaugh, the Left's steady descent into madness, and the brightening prospects for Republicans in the midterm elections. We even allude to the Vietnam War, and I pay tribute to the timeless political wisdom of Richard Nixon's Vice-President Spiro Agnew! It's an episode of "Waddy Wednesday" not to be missed.
Saturday, October 6, 2018
Friends, it's no secret that 2018 offers Republicans a lot of pickup opportunities in the U.S. Senate. No fewer than 10 Democratic Senators are running for re-election in states that Trump won in 2016. Now we know that four Democratic Senators running for re-election in deeply red states -- Joe Donnelly in Indiana, Claire McCaskill in Missouri, Jon Tester in Montana, and Heidi Heitkamp in North Dakota -- are voting no on the confirmation of soon-to-be Supreme Court Justice Brett Kavanaugh. These Senators are betraying not only the voters of their respective states, but the basic principles of American justice and universal decency, not to mention the traditions of the Senate itself. It's time for them to go. My latest article makes that case.
Thursday, October 4, 2018
Friends, the news is coming thick and fast these days! A lot of it is good, thankfully. The supplemental FBI investigation into Brett Kavanaugh is now over, and -- predictably -- it found no additional corroboration of the accusations made by various women. That means it is very likely that Kavanaugh will be confirmed in the next several days.
Meanwhile, every American should read this analysis by Tucker Carlson. As usual, Tucker asks the tough questions that the rest of the media ignores. Specifically, he asks, vis-a-vis Dr. Ford, whether her memories have been consistent over the years. Has she always known with "100%" certainty that Brett Kavanaugh assaulted her, or did she "recover" this memory in the course of undergoing therapy in 2012? It's a very important question, and one which Dr. Ford's interlocutors never bothered to ask, somewhat incredibly. To say that she was treated with "kid gloves" during her Senate hearing would be a distinct understatement!
Next, check out this report from NPR, which indicates that, largely because of the Kavanaugh fiasco, Democrats' edge in voter enthusiasm has disappeared! People have assumed throughout 2018 that a "blue wave" was possible, even likely, because Democrats seemed much more energized than Republicans, even if their "energy" came from Trump Derangement Syndrome. Well, now Republicans are getting every bit as enthusiastic about voting as Democrats. Thus, the "blue wave" is looking more and more dubious.
Finally, as the desperation of loony liberals reaches unheard-of heights, their tactics of intimidation, and occasionally violence, are shocking more and more Americans. Here's an example of a Democratic operative -- he once worked for Senator Feinstein! -- who took left-wing extremism to its logical conclusion and engaged in criminal behavior in an attempt to harm Republican Senators. This kind of behavior is becoming more and more common, sadly, and few leftists seem concerned that any form of anti-Republican activism could ever go "too far". I've said it before, and I'll say it again -- if we manage to win in November, this sort of self-destructive behavior among leftists will become the norm, and the Left might even destroy itself. Stay tuned!
Wednesday, October 3, 2018
Friends, you won't want to miss out on my latest Newsmaker interview with Brian O'Neil. Naturally we discuss all the latest developments in the Kavanaugh saga -- and I explain why the Left's desperate bid to prevent conservative domination of the court will fail -- but we also get into some other critical topics. We talk about President Trump's success in replacing NAFTA with the USMCA -- a new trade dispensation in North America that will strengthen our economy and create more U.S. jobs. We also discuss revolutionary developments in European politics, including the rising likelihood of a "hard Brexit" by default, since Prime Minister May's government is having trouble negotiating a softer agreement with the EU and with her own MPs. In addition, I highlight the instability in German politics, where the two main parties are in decline, and where third parties, including the anti-immigration AfD, appear to be the beneficiaries. The bottom line: everywhere in the West, old political certainties are being upended. President Trump may be just the beginning of a massive realignment of Western political and social dynamics. Above all, populism, anchored in common sense, is experiencing a comeback, after decades of political correct, elitist rule. I, for one, find that encouraging.
Monday, October 1, 2018
Friends, my latest article analyzes the political decline of Germany's Chancellor Angela Merkel, caused by, more than anything else, her disastrous decision to let her country be overrun with "refugees" in 2015-16. I argue that mainstream politicians who refuse to enact sensible immigration policies are courting a right-wing, nationalist, and anti-immigrant backlash. The most notable effect of that backlash, to date, has been the election of Donald J. Trump as the U.S President, but more may be coming. Merkel, if she falls, would confirm what you and I have known for a long time: the silent majority simply won't accept weak immigration enforcement, and facile hero-worship of all alleged refugees, forever. As always, the Left could do itself a great service by acknowledging that the law is the law, even for people of color and Muslims, and thus all illegal immigrants should face prompt repatriation. That they cannot bring themselves to accept this reveals their pusillanimity and their reverse racism. Let us hope that the public finally catches on and acts accordingly.
Thanks to Townhall for publishing the article!