Wednesday, October 17, 2018
Friends, remember when the media DIDN'T dismiss Kanye West as a rambling mental patient? Sure, that was back before he became a Trump-supporter... It's clear that the Left is running scared. They're attacking anyone, especially minorities and women, who are fleeing the sinking ship that is the Democratic Party. So be it. The proof is in the pudding, and this November we have an opportunity to deal what could be a deathblow to modern liberalism. Onward to victory, I say! All this and much more is featured in this week's Newsmaker Show interview, featuring yours truly and Mr. Brian O'Neil. Don't miss it!
Friday, October 12, 2018
Friends, the reliability of the polling data supplied by the mainstream media has come under question, well, forever, but especially since their massive errors in 2016. My latest article asks the question: how believable are the predictions of a "blue wave" in November, based on the allegedly scientific and objective data on which these predictions are made? It turns out that polling is an art, not a science, and there is ample reason to question whether the GOP's collective goose is as cooked as the Left wants us to think... Read on, and be comforted by my analysis, which is coming soon to the virtual pages of American Greatness!
Consider the Source: Polls Predicting a “Blue Wave” Are Not Reliable
Republicans are understandably distraught when they hear the mainstream media endlessly repeating the mantra that there will be an historic “blue wave” in the November midterm elections. President Trump's allegedly incompetent and borderline-tyrannical misrule of the rightfully indignant American people will produce a suitable backlash, we are told: Democrats will surely take the House, and possibly the Senate. Will the Republican Party even survive this shellacking? The verdict is out.
This narrative is supported by polling conducted on behalf of major news organizations. CNN's latest poll, conducted October 4th-7th, is a good case in point. It claims that, in the “generic ballot” question that asks whether likely voters are inclined to support the Democratic or Republican candidate for the House of Representatives in their local district, Democrats hold a massive 13-point edge: 54-41%. Wow! Truly, the race is over, if this poll is to be believed, and Republicans are the losers par excellence. Or is it that simple?
When one drills down to the particulars in the CNN survey, one finds myriad reasons to doubt its accuracy. For one thing, it forecasts a “gender gap” of unprecedented proportions: it finds that 63% of female likely voters will back the Democrats, compared to only 45% of men. Although it is normal for women to be more supportive of Democratic candidates than men, the size of the discrepancy seldom exceeds 10 points. This is suspicious.
Even more damning to the reliability of the poll is its prediction that voters over 65 will favor Democrats by 18 points! This is in the realms of pure fantasy, given that older voters have consistently favored Republicans in recent years, and in 2016 they voted for Republican House candidates over Democrats 53-45%. A “blue wave” might, in the most optimistic scenario, mean that Democrats would tie Republicans among older voters, but the notion that they could win this demographic in a landslide is an absurdity.
The CNN poll is equally dubious when it comes to race. In 2016, according to exit polls, white voters favored Republican House candidates by 22 points: 60-38%. But in 2018 CNN predicts Republican House candidates will win the white vote by only 1 point. Nonsense.
There are deeper reasons, however, to mistrust the CNN poll and others like it. Above all, we should consider the history of polling, and how frequently individual polls, and even the average of polls, can be wrong.
It's no secret that in 2016 the polls predicted that Hillary Clinton would be our next President, and yet here she is in 2018 – a private citizen, albeit an outspoken one. What is more interesting, for our purposes, is that, also in 2016, many polling organizations were asking the usual “generic ballot” question of voters: in their district, would they prefer the Democratic or the Republican candidate for the House of Representatives? Based on the RealClearPolitics average of major polls, at no point in the 2016 election cycle (May to November) did Republicans have a lead on this question, and yet Republicans won the national popular vote for the House by one point and maintained control of the chamber. Let that sink in. Polling averages generally favored the Democrats by 3 to 5 points, they never favored the Republicans, and yet the Democrats still lost. How could this be?
The answer is, in part, that there are, included within these national polling averages, bogus polls like CNN's monstrosity predicting a 13-point win for Democrats. By no means is this the first time that CNN has overrated Democratic strength. In 2006, the last time there truly was a “blue wave,” Democrats won the national popular vote for the House by 8 points. Nonetheless, the last CNN generic ballot poll showed Democrats winning by 20 points! That's a large discrepancy, to say the least.
CNN polls are not always this wrong, of course. In 2016, the last CNN poll of the generic ballot question favored Democrats by 3 points, whereas Republicans won the national popular vote by 1 point. Thus, CNN was in the tank for Democrats only to the tune of 4 points. An improvement from 2006, therefore, but still a poor reflection on the accuracy (or lack thereof) of CNN's polling operations.
The potential for CNN, and other major news organizations, to misconstrue, or even deliberately misrepresent, the leanings of the electorate is vast. One has to wonder: how many CNN reporters and pundits would be willing to bet their annual salary on the notion that Democrats will win the popular vote in House races this year by 13 points? Not many! One suspects that the 13-point number is, in fact, not designed to be predictive at all. It is instead designed to shift the narrative – to make news, rather than report it – and to encourage Democrats while discouraging Republicans.
CNN's latest whopper continues a trend in recent polling, as polling averages routinely overrate Democratic strength. In 2014, for instance, the RealClearPolitics polling average for the generic ballot question ended up favoring Republicans over Democrats by 2 points, but Republicans won the national popular vote by 6 points. CNN was even less accurate than the national average, needless to say. In its last poll of that cycle, it favored the Democrats by 1 point.
In the final analysis, what does all this mean? Polls are far from useless, but the American people should exercise caution and discretion in interpreting them. They should also keep in mind that recent polling by major news organizations evinces a consistent bias in favor of Democrats.
If, therefore, the current RealClearPolitics average for the generic ballot question puts Democrats up by 7 points, then this result is likely skewed by garbage polls like CNN's. History suggests that the Democrats' edge is likely more modest: say, 3 or 4 points. That small advantage, which is certainly liable to additional shrinkage, may well be insufficient to put the House of Representatives in Nancy Pelosi's gnarled hands.
It's possible, moreover, that even that 3- or 4-point edge is illusory. Rasmussen Reports' latest poll has Democrats and Republicans tied at 45% on the generic ballot question. And Rasmussen, lest we forget, was the most accurate polling organization in 2016, predicting Hillary Clinton's narrow 2-point victory in the popular vote. If Rasmussen is right again, then in 2018 Republicans might do more than stave off disaster. They might actually win!
The takeaway? CNN wants Republicans to despair in the lead-up to the 2018 midterm elections, but the evidence says...not so fast!
As always, reports of the death of the GOP are greatly exaggerated.
Dr. Nicholas L. Waddy is an Associate Professor of History at SUNY Alfred and blogs at: www.waddyisright.com. He appears weekly on the Newsmaker Show on WLEA 1480.
And here is the American Greatness version:
And here is the American Greatness version:
Thursday, October 11, 2018
Friends, it's become increasingly obvious that there's very little that unites Democrats, except a loathing for Donald Trump and Republicans, and a desire to "make right" what happened (inexplicably!) in 2016. I recommend to you this article, which discusses the fragile nature of the "blue wave" we've heard so much about, and more importantly discusses what calamities may befall the Left if that blue wave doesn't materialize. For now, the crazies and socialists in the Democratic Party are willing to tolerate the leadership of the establishment...but if there's no blue wave? Then, all hell will break loose, and the consequences will be historic, mark my words. I agree with this fellow on one thing, above all: the 2018 election is massively important!!! Don't be caught napping.
Wednesday, October 10, 2018
Friends, during my latest appearance on the Newsmaker Show, hosted by Brian O'Neil, we cover all the latest developments with Judge Kavanaugh, the Left's steady descent into madness, and the brightening prospects for Republicans in the midterm elections. We even allude to the Vietnam War, and I pay tribute to the timeless political wisdom of Richard Nixon's Vice-President Spiro Agnew! It's an episode of "Waddy Wednesday" not to be missed.
Saturday, October 6, 2018
Friends, it's no secret that 2018 offers Republicans a lot of pickup opportunities in the U.S. Senate. No fewer than 10 Democratic Senators are running for re-election in states that Trump won in 2016. Now we know that four Democratic Senators running for re-election in deeply red states -- Joe Donnelly in Indiana, Claire McCaskill in Missouri, Jon Tester in Montana, and Heidi Heitkamp in North Dakota -- are voting no on the confirmation of soon-to-be Supreme Court Justice Brett Kavanaugh. These Senators are betraying not only the voters of their respective states, but the basic principles of American justice and universal decency, not to mention the traditions of the Senate itself. It's time for them to go. My latest article makes that case.
Thursday, October 4, 2018
Friends, the news is coming thick and fast these days! A lot of it is good, thankfully. The supplemental FBI investigation into Brett Kavanaugh is now over, and -- predictably -- it found no additional corroboration of the accusations made by various women. That means it is very likely that Kavanaugh will be confirmed in the next several days.
Meanwhile, every American should read this analysis by Tucker Carlson. As usual, Tucker asks the tough questions that the rest of the media ignores. Specifically, he asks, vis-a-vis Dr. Ford, whether her memories have been consistent over the years. Has she always known with "100%" certainty that Brett Kavanaugh assaulted her, or did she "recover" this memory in the course of undergoing therapy in 2012? It's a very important question, and one which Dr. Ford's interlocutors never bothered to ask, somewhat incredibly. To say that she was treated with "kid gloves" during her Senate hearing would be a distinct understatement!
Next, check out this report from NPR, which indicates that, largely because of the Kavanaugh fiasco, Democrats' edge in voter enthusiasm has disappeared! People have assumed throughout 2018 that a "blue wave" was possible, even likely, because Democrats seemed much more energized than Republicans, even if their "energy" came from Trump Derangement Syndrome. Well, now Republicans are getting every bit as enthusiastic about voting as Democrats. Thus, the "blue wave" is looking more and more dubious.
Finally, as the desperation of loony liberals reaches unheard-of heights, their tactics of intimidation, and occasionally violence, are shocking more and more Americans. Here's an example of a Democratic operative -- he once worked for Senator Feinstein! -- who took left-wing extremism to its logical conclusion and engaged in criminal behavior in an attempt to harm Republican Senators. This kind of behavior is becoming more and more common, sadly, and few leftists seem concerned that any form of anti-Republican activism could ever go "too far". I've said it before, and I'll say it again -- if we manage to win in November, this sort of self-destructive behavior among leftists will become the norm, and the Left might even destroy itself. Stay tuned!
Wednesday, October 3, 2018
Friends, you won't want to miss out on my latest Newsmaker interview with Brian O'Neil. Naturally we discuss all the latest developments in the Kavanaugh saga -- and I explain why the Left's desperate bid to prevent conservative domination of the court will fail -- but we also get into some other critical topics. We talk about President Trump's success in replacing NAFTA with the USMCA -- a new trade dispensation in North America that will strengthen our economy and create more U.S. jobs. We also discuss revolutionary developments in European politics, including the rising likelihood of a "hard Brexit" by default, since Prime Minister May's government is having trouble negotiating a softer agreement with the EU and with her own MPs. In addition, I highlight the instability in German politics, where the two main parties are in decline, and where third parties, including the anti-immigration AfD, appear to be the beneficiaries. The bottom line: everywhere in the West, old political certainties are being upended. President Trump may be just the beginning of a massive realignment of Western political and social dynamics. Above all, populism, anchored in common sense, is experiencing a comeback, after decades of political correct, elitist rule. I, for one, find that encouraging.
Monday, October 1, 2018
Friends, my latest article analyzes the political decline of Germany's Chancellor Angela Merkel, caused by, more than anything else, her disastrous decision to let her country be overrun with "refugees" in 2015-16. I argue that mainstream politicians who refuse to enact sensible immigration policies are courting a right-wing, nationalist, and anti-immigrant backlash. The most notable effect of that backlash, to date, has been the election of Donald J. Trump as the U.S President, but more may be coming. Merkel, if she falls, would confirm what you and I have known for a long time: the silent majority simply won't accept weak immigration enforcement, and facile hero-worship of all alleged refugees, forever. As always, the Left could do itself a great service by acknowledging that the law is the law, even for people of color and Muslims, and thus all illegal immigrants should face prompt repatriation. That they cannot bring themselves to accept this reveals their pusillanimity and their reverse racism. Let us hope that the public finally catches on and acts accordingly.
Thanks to Townhall for publishing the article!
Sunday, September 30, 2018
Friends, I'm no nutritionist, but I don't buy organic foods, as a rule, because many studies have shown that there is no great advantage to doing so...and, as always, I'm skeptical of conventional wisdom when it comes to genetically-modified crops, pesticides, etc. I recommend to you this article, because it discusses how misleading the claims of organic farmers and merchandisers can be. I was particularly impressed by the argument that, if organic farms produce smaller yields, but use the same amount of land, water, and other resources as conventional farms, then in what sense is organic agriculture "sustainable"? Actually, it's the opposite of sustainable -- it's wasteful! So much of what we see on the eco-left isn't driven by reason or evidence, however, but by unthinking prejudice and blind self-satisfaction. Again, I don't claim great expertise on these matters, but, for now, I'll stick to the genetically-enhanced, pesticide-rich foods that have gotten me this far in life...
Saturday, September 29, 2018
Friends, I recommend to you this great article, which aptly summarizes where we find ourselves after the testimony of Christine Blasey Ford and Brett Kavanaugh before the U.S. Senate. The nation was entranced by their emotional performances, but, as I opined beforehand, the superficial credibility of a witness pales in comparison to the power of evidence, and there is no evidence on hand that can prove either Judge Kavanaugh's guilt or the falsity of Ford's claims. This affair is, always has been, and always will be a matter of "he said, she said", and no FBI investigation will change that. Democratic Senators did their best to undermine Kavanaugh's credibility, and they gushed over Ford's bravery and nobility (never even considering the possibility, so it would seem, that she could be lying or mistaken), but none of that goes to the heart of issue: did he do it, or did he not? The hearings were, in the end, a dramatic sideshow that will have, in all likelihood, little effect on the confirmation votes of Democratic and Republican Senators, and which never had anything to do with justice and fair play.
Personally, I see the Republicans' decision to concede a further FBI inquiry into Brett Kavanaugh, lasting one week, as good news. Such a pause will take away one of the Democrats' key talking points -- that Republicans refused to take the allegations seriously -- but it is highly unlikely to produce definitive evidence of what happened in 1982. The real effect of the FBI investigation will be to give wavering Republican Senators (Collins, Murkowski, and Flake) political cover to vote "yes" on Kavanaugh. They can say that they went the extra mile and sought an FBI probe, but that it produced no proof of guilt, and plenty of reason to doubt Ford's account. The end result will therefore be as I predicted weeks ago: Brett Kavanaugh will be our next Supreme Court Justice.
The Dems tried their best, and they showed just how devious and resourceful they can be in the pursuit of power, but once again they will come up short. Let's hope that their losing streak remains unbroken in November, and far beyond.