Friends, I'm not generally a huge fan of Nate Silver, but his latest analysis of the two parties' chances in November is worth a read. He's surprisingly candid, and his metrics tell us what we already know: that Republicans are almost certain to take the House, and have a better than 50/50 shot at capturing the Senate too. What's more, Silver admits that much of the polling now being published is slanted towards the Democrats...so, for instance, a two point average lead for Republicans on the generic ballot question now could easily translate into a five or six point advantage on election day. To make a long story short, therefore, January 6th and Dobbs haven't moved the needle, and, as of now, the midterms are still our election to lose.
Those of you reading the economic tea leaves are probably aware already that signs of a recession keep proliferating. Someone should tell Nate Silver that a bleak environment for Democrats may be about to get considerably worse!
Finally, is the GOP still Trump's party? Well, I guess that depends on who you ask. If you ask Republicans, the answer would be an emphatic YES!!! If you ask the mainstream media, you might get a very different perspective.
Dr.Waddy from Jack: The article presented much empirical evidence which appears, according to its interpreters, to suggest a present very strong possibility of Pelosi losing her haughty throne! The Senate, it would so appear, is in contest. Ok; let the real America see this as a clarion call to ever more intense effort to drive the totalitarian left, poisonously esconsed in our national institutions, to the gutters to which it belongs! Too much you might say! Nahh, its just what they have wished for us since the'60s!
ReplyDeleteDr.Waddy from Jack: Well of course the MSM starts from a baseline of murderous hatred for one of such insolent defiance as to have disdained American leftist verities! "And he did it even unto denying our darling Hillary her entitled Presidency and is therefore consumately condemned, even unto political perdition!" Carry on lefties! You do but support expectation of you as dictators! And sorry, you all, but America remains free!
ReplyDeleteJack from Ray
DeleteI don't disagree with you that "America remains free" but I think it is by a thread, and an extra thin one at that. Places like California, one of our darkest blue states, is not exactly free, as such. People who can afford to do so are fleeing the place and moving to Florida and Texas.
Reminds me of the exodus of people from Eastern Europe during The Cold War. Also, I know you are well aware, that even if The Republicans (whoever they may be these days), regain Congress this Fall, we still have over two years of the BidenISTAS left after that.
Jack, chances are high that, whichever party ends up controlling the Senate, it will be by a slim margin. That slim margin will be enormously consequential, though. It could determine, for instance, whether Biden can inflict 200 or 20 new judges on us. It could determine whether the Supreme Court remains, as you and I would have it, "lawful", or drifts back to the left.
ReplyDeleteRay, I concur: America is "free" only relative to other Western countries, which are marginally less so. Modern America is, compared to the America of 50 or 100 years ago, a lot LESS free. I measure freedom very simply: as the powers of the government increase, the freedoms of the people decrease. Is our government bigger or smaller than it was in days of yore? We all know the answer. And we equally well know that much of the growth has been spurred on by Republicans.
Dr.Waddy et al from Jack: Me for Trump and I rejoice at his apparent strength. He deserves our trust and gratitude for having demonstrated, rather than hesitantly mouthing, real support for the real America, that America which does not support "complete transformation" of our ON BALANCE (the only honest measure) positive country. Reagan, Trump and DeSantis have led the way in sticking an insolent symbolic thumb in the haughty, America hating leftist eye! The last two weeks have demonstrated our country's good fortune in his Presidency. He and Mitch and Bush II delivered Scotus from its shamefull vassalage to the American left.
ReplyDeletePresident Trump and his family have paid an incalculable personal price for having defied an American left driven to insane antipathy by his opposition to the presumed , comprehensive justice the American vindictively dictates its unimpeachable intent. He sacrificed the placid, luxurious life most of us senior citizens crave, to what!? To calumny, excoriation and now organized effort to indict him. How would any of us endure such a test? He is for us; let us stick with him no matter what!
" . . . 'american' left . . . " thanx, Jack
ReplyDeleteDr.Waddy from Jack: BTW lefties, who do you propose to replace your dessicated front, your Pino Biden? Hillary?! With the 24 tons of legal and extralegal presumption for which she bears plausible responsibility? For radical flash AOC.?Imagine her campaigning in rural America. Hide the eggs and rotten peaches! Newsome? Oh yeah, t "let us outlaw all sales of gas powered vehicles." Now that is a sure nationwide winner! Butta(whatever)Who? What? What has he done? WHO then!?
ReplyDeleteWell said, Jack!
ReplyDeleteI'm not sure whether to take Newsom seriously as a contender or not. He looks the part. He may be wily enough. But California is an awfully far-left base of operations for a presidential candidate...
Dr.Waddy from Jack: I would think him unelectable. Ca and NY give us plausible previews of just the very early days of a leftist "american" dictatorship; that is before the really serious "fundamental transformation" commences with totalitarian resolve. Anyone exemplary of those places or their views would be ANATHEMA to the real America and the real America is on winning track just now! The "american" left has, with scorn ,presumption and impatience made a very ill timed open declaration of their radical intent in this in their vicious assault on President Trump and his family and in this Biden"administrations" catastrophic record. The latter is justified by the "american" left and their marionette as hardship as a necessary transition unto a perfect world. What a hackneyed, characteristically disingenuous promise made historically also by previous always murderous far leftist elites in totalitarian power. NY and CA are in their van and anyone - Newsome, AOC or some similarly minded autocrat who demonstrates such conviction must be shown the exit door from the American polity!
ReplyDeleteJack, I sincerely hope you're right -- that America sees the leftist hellscapes of California and New York for what they are. Perception is everything, though, and the media will obscure that reality to the best of its ability.
ReplyDelete