Friends, let's be clear: Iran is retaliating against Israel and America's attacks mainly by striking back against...the whole world, not its battlefield foes. What I mean is that Iran is doing its best, not just to pepper the whole region with missile and drone strikes, but also to close the Strait of Hormuz to all maritime traffic, thus dealing a body blow to the global economy. And yet, somehow, most of the world doesn't mind at all. In fact, it roots for Iran, just to spite the Zionists and MAGA! Well, that's pretty dumb, but I would also like to draw your attention to an important fact: the Strait is not completely closed, and, to the extent it is, that is only because most of the world knows that, for weeks if not months, it can dispense with Gulf oil without serious consequence. If the world was desperate for what the Middle East has to offer, after all, NATO, Japan, China, et al. would be helping us open the Strait. I mean, it would be suicidal for them to do anything else. The fact that they aren't tells us that all the handwringing over this "war" is mostly for show, at least at this stage. I conclude that the Strait is only "closed" because, right now, no one minds greatly that it is.
https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c4geg0eeyjeo
Want more cogent analysis of our hostilities with Iran? Listen in to the "Fourth Box" podcast, featuring Yours Truly as honored guest!
https://rumble.com/v770a3a-history-professor-nick-waddy-on-the-war-in-iran.html
Finally, now that DJT has made us all rich (thanks to strong economic growth and a buoyant stock market), we can throw a bit of our filthy lucre at the upcoming Trump coin...in gold, no less! Of course, any image of Trump has a value that's beyond price...
Dr. Waddy from Jack: That is a perceptive and intriguing view of the situation in the Straits of Hormuz. Makes alot of sense. More later. . . .
ReplyDeleteDr. Waddy from Jack: The possibility of an American assault on Kharg Island in the Persian Gulf is significant. Possession of it could give us a very handy spot from which to keep tabs on Iran should the regime not fall. It could also calm Persian Gulf nations' concerns about a now demonstrated recklessly aggressive Iran. President Trump ain't kiddin' around about it either. He is sending an amphibious task group from San Diego to the war zone; probably would take about ten days to get there; that provides time for Iran to sweat it!
ReplyDeleteOur President plays hardball with our military power. Why not? We can take confidence (and I'm sure he does, justifiably convinced as he is that the U.S. has been the most benevolent great power in history) that in this technologically geographically tightened world, a forward defense for the U.S. is sometimes prudent. This President is "can do" rather than "jaw-jaw".
Dr. Waddy from Jack: China is a major factor in this war , I think. They get about 45% of their oil from Iran. Our President has called on China to help keep the Strait of Hormuz protected from radical Islamist attack from Iran and the Houthis. Today's news says that China has asked Iran for guarantees against such attack.
ReplyDeleteWhy does China think itself constrained to do this? They have cultivated Iran for awhile now as a vital part of their developing overland commerce with the Middle East and Africa. One would think that under a firmly governed Iran China would assume such cooperation. But who knows who is " in charge" there now?
And who knows how much U.S. close control over Iran may result from this war? China might recoil at the prospect of the oil being under U.S. control. But China probably does not wish to tangle with the U.S. They might react by hastening development of overland routes (the "new Silk Road)for their vital imports from the Middle East.
I think that for China it depends , as it always does with a China now viscerally determined never again to be shamefully subjugated by foreigners, on how all this fits in with their perception of what their security requires. How far do they think they MUST go to guarantee it in this new/old world? The U.S., in their view, MAY be the avatar of the Western powers which took cynical advantage of its dynastic and weather caused agony in the 19th century. Chinese history manifests a succession of periodic dissolution followed by long established periods of strength and integrity. China is convinced that it is in full recovery now and finds the prospect of any reprise of its disgrace absolutely unbearable. When their supply of vital oil is at hazard, their reasoning probably follows such a line.