Friends, Crazy Nancy is spoiling for a fight, and so she's decided to swing by Taiwan during her tour of East Asia...or did she just take a wrong turn on the way to the liquor store? You be the judge. Personally, I'm inclined to agree with President Trump, who asserts that Pelosi's visit is ill-advised and poorly-timed. I mean, here we are hip-deep in Russophobia, and Crazy Nancy decides to pay a courtesy call to Taiwan??? Why stick a finger in Xi's eye now, of all times? I don't get it. Personally, while I also have grave doubts and fears re China's rise and its future relations with the West, I don't see why we would pick Taiwan as a potential casus belli. We recognize Taiwan as a part of China, which makes going to war, or taking a stand, to defend Taiwan from China more than a little uncomfortable, and irrational to boot. I would let China have its way with Taiwan, in the final analysis, and I would dig in my heels and do everything in my power to STOP Red China from continuing to have its way with us. Call me nuts, but that's how I see it.
https://apnews.com/article/china-asia-beijing-malaysia-a5a6acc391511c99b1b4c2d69e67b133
https://www.newsmax.com/politics/taiwan-house-speaker-nancy-pelosi/2022/08/02/id/1081443/
In other news, Biden's DOJ is suing Idaho to prevent the implementation of its sweeping anti-abortion law. The pretext is interesting. Take note, because, if you thought the fate of abortion in America had been decided by the recent Dobbs decision, guess again! The Dems can find new legal chimeras from here to judgement day. They'll fight this battle literally until they run out of trial lawyers, and that ain't happenin' anytime soon.
https://www.cnn.com/2022/08/02/politics/justice-department-abortion-idaho/index.html
Dr. Waddy from Jack: I remember in the Kennedy/Nixon 1960 campaign, those two holding forth on the significance of Chicom shelling of Quemoy and Matsu, rocky outcroppings just off the mainland coast but occupied by the Nationalists. It was a major issue in a US Presidential campaign! That was because the 1949 Commie conquest of China, which more than doubled the oppressed commie population of the world, had a profound influence on US sensibilities! It was the historically most inhuman ruling doctrine ever forced on humanity. Of course we feared it! And our original intention in supporting the Nationalists, forcefully and perhaps justifiably invested in Taiwan, was to counter a very forceful and perhaps expansionist Maoistly insane regime! Does that justification yet obtain, even unto risk of war with a nuclear superpower like China!
ReplyDeleteDr.Waddy from Jack: Fear of Chinese communism during the time we first demonstrated support for Taiwan stemmed in part from our perception of communism as a monstrous monolith anchored by a Stalinist Russia which just enslaved Eastern Europe. Imagine our consternation if ISIS savagery had taken control of the Middle East.
ReplyDeleteDr.Waddy from Jack: Today's dev elopments are dramatic and raise many questions. What will be the nature of this encirclement of Taiwan? Could it develop into a blockade? Its reported that Chinese carrier "s" are at sea. Ithink they have three. But where? The Sea of Japan? I mean when you are talking Taiwan, its close enough thatChina itself amounts to an unsinkable giant carrier . The Chinese have no experience of ship to ship carrier warfare, whereas the US certainly DOES!! This has the potential to become a nose to nose confrontation, with neither side seeking war ( "I could kick ur ass! Yeah, well try it! Ya want me to? etc, etc") . Also, at sea is, I think, the only place a nuclear fight could happen wiithout either side being moved to a general intercontinental exchange.
ReplyDeleteDr. Waddy from Jack: Also to consider: How might Taiwan itself react to this encirclement? Does China have some thing it thinks can counter our carriers close in? They may; they have been doing much work with
ReplyDeletepossibly uninterceptable hypersonic missiles. They do have many subs but they must know that the US Navy has an unparalleled wealth of antisub experience from two world wars and in a cold war in which our anti sub AND sub warfare has assumed an elite role!
Jack, that's most interesting that the fate of the Nationalists was a major issue in the 1960 presidential campaign. I can totally understand why we would have preferred them to the murderous regime of Mao, but on the other hand it must have been tempting to mend fences with a country that large and powerful, given the greater danger we faced in the form of the USSR. That was an entirely theoretical distinction before the rift between Red China and the Soviets developed, of course, but once it did I'm a little surprised it took us until 1972 to act on it...
ReplyDeleteYour speculation about a potential future naval confrontation between the U.S. and China in the South China Sea is intriguing, but I suspect you may have jumped the gun by, oh, twenty years or so. Right now I don't think either country has an appetite for such conflict. Perhaps it's me who exaggerates how far off it is, though. I mean, a severe recession, in the U.S. and/or China, could alter political dynamics in a hurry.
Dr. Waddy from Jack: As I remember, right until the visit of the US ping pong team to China,shortly before Nixon's journey,intiated very tentative and clandestine "Ping Pong"diplomacy, the thought of ANY American in China was beyond belief! Sec. of State Kissinger's visits prefaced the astounding Nixon visit with the nearly incredible sight of Nixon and Mao shaking hands. Such rapproachment was utterly unexpected. Two factors among others might have obtained in this:/ Chinese weapons, supplies and training were daily killing Americans in Vietnam, as they had in Korea: also doubt about China's national integrity was justified by China's continuing internal chaos due to its insane Maoist "Cultural Revolution".Was it wise to consider negotiation with a country as upset as to physically torment some of its most there tofore national revolutionary heroes (eg. Teng Hsiao Ping, an exalted veteran of the hallowed "Long March", who later restored the real China,to China.) What if frantic Red Guard fanatics had met Nixon on the tarmac?
ReplyDeleteDr.Waddy from Jack: Gads, who can say what may obtain 20 years from now? Having witnessed the last sixty years with some comprehension I would expect many counterintuitive developments! Will China turn inward and establish close economic commonwealth withnRussia and India?The possibility of unprecedented prosperity thereby established may be of incaculable benefit. Will the US still maintain a powerful military presence in East Asia.? It may become unnecessary. We delivered East Asia from murderous Japanese misrule; along with the Brits we stymied Marxism in the area until the monumentally ignorant commie faction of our teeming US baby boom generation casually embraced treason. By 2042, we may well have realized that our physical defense of Taiwan is no longer justified. China and Taiwan may well have established a modus vivendi! In 1961, our determination to resist Soviet aggression in Berlin brought us close to war with the Rus. Its no longer a source of confrontation.
ReplyDeleteJack, I would guess that, in a funny way, China's Cultural Revolution, combined with its sheer poverty, made it easier to imagine a U.S.-Chinese rapproachement. I mean, China was fundamentally so weak. It would have been hard to perceive it as a genuine threat (compared to Russia).
ReplyDeleteYes, much may change in the years ahead. If the Taiwanese are smart, and they generally are, they will desist from provoking Red China and will wait for the day that the Chinese people themselves instigate democratization and liberalization. The real danger, as I see it, is that China's economic growth will stall, and the regime will lash out in panic. An accidental confrontation in the South China Sea can't be ruled out either.