Friends, this week's Newsmaker Show includes a very lively and stimulating discussion between me and Brian O'Neil about the politics and morality of Russia's ongoing invasion of Ukraine. I critique the Western policy decisions that brought Ukraine to this pass, and I analyze how the West and the U.S. may suffer because of the recent turn of events. It's also important to see Putin's actions in terms of the history of the Soviet Union and the Russian Empire, which for centuries defined Ukraine as a vital, core area, the security of which is intimately bound up with the security of Russia itself. I argue that the West is right to be concerned about Russian moves, but we're wrong to imagine that we can stop Russia from conquering Ukraine -- not without the commitment of massive numbers of Western forces, which is clearly the furthest thing from our mind. I also caution against completely isolating Russia and the Russian people, which strikes me as a strategy that could lead to disaster!
In our "This Day in History" segment, Brian and I cover the Battle of the Bismarck Sea in 1943, lost (unsurprisingly) by the Japanese; Bobby Kennedy's 1967 proposal to end the Vietnam War; the passage of the Jones Act in 1929, plus the merits of Prohibition; and a long-forgotten (?) clash between Red Chinese and Soviet forces in 1969, which sheds light on the potential for a Chinese-Russian alliance in the 21st century.
All in all, it's a show that will raise some eyebrows. Will one or two of those eyebrows belong to you? It's possible!
https://wlea.net/newsmaker-march-2-2022-dr-nick-waddy/
In other news, say what you want about Russia's legitimate interests in Ukraine, but its invasion of that country has not been an unqualified PR success! Much of the world is venting its ire (fruitlessly, mind you) at the U.N. One assumes that the Russians never expected to be applauded for military "aggression". Presumably, they felt they needed to bite the bullet and, once Ukraine was pacified, the world would "get over it". Is that calculus changing? Might it, in the future? Or is old Vlad in this for the long haul?
https://www.rferl.org/a/united-nations-condemns-russia/31732692.html
You have to hand it to the Dems' cute little insurrection monkey, Robert Reich. He can always find a way to twist the news into an anti-Trump, anti-Republican diatribe. Did you know that "Putinism" is alive and well in the GOP? Kill it, kill it, kill it -- while we still have time!!!
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2022/mar/01/republican-party-trump-putin
The key words here are "Russia's legitimate interests in Ukraine" as opposed to the interests of any other country, to include The United States of America.
ReplyDeleteI saw Senators Lindsey Graham (South Carolina) and Willard Mitt Romney (Utah), both without academic credentials in history, yapping about Russia's entry into The Ukraine with great indignation bordering on hysteria. One would think that Russian paratroopers has just descended upon Salt Lake City and Columbia simultaneously. This is political theater at its finest.
As for the average American man or woman in the street, I doubt if most could identify The Ukraine on a world map, much less places like Kiev, or Crimean cities. In fact, I doubt if most really give a damn with gas and grocery prices rising here.
My guess, is that the "legitimate" interests in a place far away from our country is to prop up a decrepit NATO so our military technical complex can start making big bucks again. Vlady Daddy's adventures in The Ukraine are a blessing in disguise.
Well now, let's hope that the Russian Bear does not conquer all of The Ukraine. Just a bite or two of The Ukrainian "eastern sandwich" would be good. Otherwise, taking over the entire place would mean that Russia would be poised for an assault on The Holy See/Vatican. However, I am confident that if that disaster happened, the Swiss Guard would be able to repel them.
No matter what, these events, make life mess boring for politicians, and best of all provide a diversion when things get sticky at home. Get ready for a Russia invasion of Alaska! I know they are still pissed that they sold the place to us back in 1867. Now that really could give Graham and Romney something to get upset about.
If you want to read about "Putinism" read the late Walter Laqueur's book by the same name (longer title), instead of anything Reich says or does.
ReplyDeleteWell said, Ray! I agree: Western politicians are talking as though Putin just marched into Kansas or Coventry. Ukraine is, at best, marginal to the interests of the West. Moreover, what Russia is doing to the Ukrainians, while tragic, is not much different than what the Syrians have been doing to each other, and what most of Africa did to Congo, without the world so much as batting an eyelash. The hyperventilation seems a little out of place!
ReplyDeleteIf Soros and other globalists had not interfered in The Ukraine by installing an anti-Russian leader in Kiev, this invasion might have not happened or been delayed. Also, Russia is highly nationalist, and in fact was nationalist even under the Communists/Soviet Union. Pushing for Ukraine "inclusion" in the EU and NATO also tipped the scales.
DeleteDr.Waddy from Jack: That was a fecund broadcast! The Ukraine invasion should be not be regarded as reasonably unexpected. You were right; the Russians have been warning us for a long time. They were doing so in Georgia. What the hell ever gave anyone to believe that Russia is a pushover?! Its an historically proven bad ass bunch! Sure, we caught them in a moment of relative ehh "disorganization" and we hit them when they were down and imposed theretofore unimaginable humiliation on them. They warned us: "step off!" we persisted to this day and now they have done what they cautioned against.
ReplyDeleteDr. Waddy from Jack: That is a very well taken observation that Ukraine should simply have declared neutrality.Ukraine wants understandably, to be western but could it have satisfied Russia's creditable fears of the Ukraine salient by perhaps acting like Finland, which enjoys a pleasantly prosperous and free western culture despite its dangerous proximity to Russia (eg St Petersburg) We encouraged Ukrainian defiance of Russia(an exceedingly hard position for Ukraine to compromise given sociopathic Russian oppression of Ukraine -eg The Famine-) But Ukraine may have understandably assumed a support from the West which could not be forthcoming, not against the Russian nuclear force!
ReplyDeleteDr. Waddy from Jack: Remember the "proxy wars" and close calls of the Cold War?: Berlin Airlift, Korea( where Russian pilots and Jets fought America pilots and Jets), Vietnam, Africa, the Cuban Crisis, Greneda, even Afghanistan? In each,the possibility of direct confrontation with the Rus. was speculated upon. I lived through all of it and never then saw as direct a possibility of war with Russia as I see now!
ReplyDeleteDr. Waddy from Jack: The Battle of the Bismarck Sea did mark the end of Japanese effort to fight past our forces to reinforce their ground force in those South Seas. But it is probably not typica! at that time. In the surface and carrier batte off Guadalcanal, which I regard as the US military's greatest campaign ever,on land, at sea and in the air; the US experienced severe defeat! At Savo Island we lost four heavy cruisers. At the naval battle of Gudalcanal an undergunned 20 yearold Japanese battleship temporarily disabled a modern American battlewagon until it was sunk by another modern US battleship. At Tassaforanga we were mauled again.
ReplyDeleteDr. WaddY from Jack: Yes, we prevailed at the Bismarck Sea and of course after but it was only after elemental combatw
ReplyDeletewith the most able Navy we ever faced!
Dr. Waddy from Jack: Prohibition was enacted in good faith; alcohol had been a terrible scourge, especially for the families of working men But it was hopeless. Having myself been for four years in a crew of 5000 men who often spent several weeks at sea denied "the merry cheerer of the heart", I can vouch for that!
ReplyDeleteRay, I agree that the West erred -- in a big way -- by courting Ukrainian defiance towards Russia. I think we Westerners have grown complacent. The world has been our playground since 1991. Russia is just waking up, and it decided to remind us that we're not the only game in town...
ReplyDeleteJack, glad you enjoyed the show! I concur: the Russians made it clear where their "red lines" were, and we stepped all over them. The miracle is that it took them 30+ years to react.
Quite right: the Finland model is perfect for Ukraine! Well, maybe not perfect, as historically and culturally the Russians and Ukrainians belong together in an alliance of some sort...but Finlandization would have been acceptable for Russia, I suspect. Maybe there's still a chance this solution could be implemented in the long term?
Boy, that's saying something, Jack, that you regard direct confrontation between Russia and NATO as more likely now than at any time during the Cold War. I dunno. The spirit is willing, but, as they say, the flesh is weak -- by which I mean NATO seems like a paper tiger to me. All talk. I can't imagine the West taking military action...but our white hot rhetoric could perhaps get the best of us? Or maybe the Russkies would start the shooting, with the goal of warning us off?
What's the naval battle in which we experienced "severe defeat", Jack? I'm curious to read up on it.
Hmm. The Japanese Navy="the most able we ever faced"? Interesting take. I've always been amazed by the sheer size of the Japanese Navy. THERE was a country that devoted its every sinew to the prosecution of war. And they had to, given how many enemies they provoked!
I'm not sure I would say that Prohibition was "hopeless". Abolishing the consumption of alcohol would be hopeless, sure, but did anyone believe that that would be the result of Prohibition? I mean, no one thinks that the War on Drugs will abolish drugs... It's more a question of deterring the use of a supposedly toxic substance, no? And deterrence is never hopeless.
Dr. Waddy from Jack: I neglected to consider the Royal Navy in our Rev war and in1812. But since then, the Japanese for sure.The major n) aval defeats I referred to occured during the extended Guadalcanal campaign in 1942 and 43. They were: Savo Island,Tassafaronga (two bad ass whippings) and Battle of the Santa Cruz Islands. We had wins, major (eg. the incredibly intense two"Naval Battles of Guadalcanal")and many relatively lesser clashes. On balance, the Navy contributed significantly to the final victory at Guadalcanal but the Japanese navy was a very dangerous opponent. We lost five heavy cruisers sunk and several more disabled, two major carriers sunk and another disabled, two modern battleships disabled and two Admirals KIA.This temporarily restored to Japan the carrier parity so disastrously lost at Midway.
ReplyDeleteDr.Waddy from Jack : Recommend you consult first: Midway Inquest by Dallas Woodbury Isom, a brilliant analysis of both Midway and Guadalcanal and secondarily, S.E.Morison'sTwo Ocean War. Of the two ,Isom's book is clearly superior and the Guadalcanal section is not overly long.
ReplyDeleteDr.Waddyfrom Jack:The 1961 Berlin Crisis was another flashpoint. TheCuban Missile Crisis hinged on one factor:would the Russians violate the " quarantine" and surely trigger a US assault on Cuba and then. . .!? This Ukraine situation is far more complicated and thus presents very many more opportunities for catastrophe, I think. Interesting: Berlin, Cuba and Ukraine might all have been motivated by Russian perception of pusillanimous US Presidents. Kennedy was wrongly sized up bythe earthy and , in his personal and family life, faithful and proper Khruschev as a frivolous wealthy voluptuary pervert. And Biden? Well. . . we all know he is a shill.
ReplyDeleteDr.Waddy from Jack: I meant" . .. as JUST a... ". The Kennedy brothers were all exceedingly intemperate in their personal lives,sometimes in concert andRussian intelligence had to know about it.
ReplyDeleteJack, I appreciate the history lesson! I had no idea that the Japanese mounted a naval comeback after Midway... History is written by the victors, as they say.
ReplyDeleteGreat point that the Cuban Missile Crisis was predicated on the Russians' contempt for JFK. His (dangerous) bumbling in Cuba itself no doubt increased the likelihood that the Russians would act to secure their newfound ally. You know, people say that, had Trump remained in office, Putin never would have dared to attack Ukraine. That's speculative, but I tend to believe it. For one thing, I'd like to think that Trump, if reelected, would finally have had the political capital to attempt a "reset" with Russia -- one which I believe was long overdue. He was hamstrung in his first term by the need to prove that he wasn't Putin's pet, sadly.