Friends, my latest article considers the dynamics in the Democratic primary race, and why the timidity of the Democratic candidates may be their party's collective undoing. See if you agree with my logic... Enjoy!
Are the Dems Sleepwalking Towards a
Brokered Convention?
Wednesday night's
subdued Democratic presidential debate confirmed that no candidate is
on a clear trajectory to the nomination. What is truly shocking,
however, is that none of the top contenders seem to believe that the
Democratic nomination is even worth breaking a sweat, or throwing a
punch, over. They are politely asking for the support of the voters,
yes, but if the answer is “No, thanks” or “Meh,” they are
taking it in stride.
Witness
the fact that, aside from Corey Booker's “I thought you might have
been high” dig
at Joe Biden,
and Kamala Harris's vicious but electorally pointless broadside
aimed at Tulsi Gabbard,
none of the “big guns” could bestir themselves to fire a shot.
How such a flock of sheep is supposed to defeat the ultimate alpha
male, Donald Trump, is beyond me.
A more
interesting question in the medium term, however, is whether any of
the Democrats currently (or, in the case of Mike Bloomberg,
prospectively) running can defeat the rest of the field. The
unsettled and inconsistent nature of the public polling in this cycle
— which has alternately given the edge to Biden, Warren, Sanders,
or Buttigieg, and occasionally to all or none of the above — has
left the pundits and most voters scratching their heads. The
candidates' wariness about attacking one another's records and policy
proposals, and the dearth of negative ads run so far, has only
reinforced the perception of an electoral stalemate.
It
is worth recalling that the delegate
allotment rules
in 2020 on the Democratic side are broadly proportional. That is, any
candidate who reaches a 15% threshold of support in a given state, or
in a state legislative or Congressional district, will receive a
proportionate share of the delegates. The only
way for one of these Democratic candidates to receive his or her
party's nomination on the first ballot at the Democratic National
Convention, therefore, is to scale up his or her support between now
and March (when the lion's share of the delegates will be awarded) to
greater than 50%. At the moment, that seems unlikely to occur. For a
moderate to triumph, either Biden or Buttigieg would need to get out
of the way. For a progressive to triumph, the same could be said of
Warren and Sanders. The likelihood
of a brokered convention,
therefore, where no one wins the nomination on the first ballot, is
high and increasing.
What
happens then? Under the current set of rules, the Democrats' 758
“automatic delegates” — once known as “superdelegates” —
only get to vote starting on the second ballot. That means that party
bigwigs like Governors, Congressmen, and Senators would suddenly
comprise 16% of the total pool of delegates. Could they throw the
nomination to an establishment candidate like Biden? Perhaps, but
many other scenarios would become plausible. A long, bloody floor
fight could emerge between moderates and liberals. The party could
embrace a “dark horse” candidate like Hillary
Clinton
to foster unity. The party could even fracture ideologically and
produce an official candidate and an unofficial, independent
challenger — a Pope and an anti-Pope, if you will, as in the Middle
Ages. The potential for mischief, betrayal, and self-sabotage is
limitless.
Democrats and liberals, who watch much more CNN and MSNBC than is
good for them, have a tendency to scoff at the idea that Donald Trump
could win reelection in 2020. After all, no one who appears at their
sophisticated dinner parties inside the Beltway likes him! Based on
that unofficial poll, his goose is cooked.
These Democrats and liberals should get out more. America is a
country in which the fundamental strength of the two main parties is
in something very close to equilibrium. This simple fact, combined
with the Democrats' listlessness, ideological incompatibilities,
self-satisfaction, and complacency, makes it not only possible, but
likely, that Donald Trump will be residing at 1600 Pennsylvania
Avenue for many years to come.
In other news, ponder the revelations in this well-written article, which suggests that President Trump's concerns about Ukrainian corruption and interference in U.S. elections are well-founded. Will there be a Senate trial of President Trump? If so, we could see some startling twists and turns! The Bidens, as well as the Obama administration, could effectively be put on trial as well.
